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Changes in monsoon rainfall distribution of Bangladesh using quantile regression model

Climate change is supposed to alter not only the mean and variability but also the distribution of rainfall. Changes in rainfall distribution during the monsoon months (June to September) of Bangladesh are evaluated in this study using quantile regression. Monthly rainfall data for the period 1961–2...

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Main Authors: Mohsenipour, Morteza, Shahid, Shamsuddin, Ziarh, Ghaith Falah, Yaseen, Zaher Mundher
Format: Article
Published: Springer 2020
Subjects:
TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/90829/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03387-x
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spelling my.utm.908292021-05-31T13:21:55Z http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/90829/ Changes in monsoon rainfall distribution of Bangladesh using quantile regression model Mohsenipour, Morteza Shahid, Shamsuddin Ziarh, Ghaith Falah Yaseen, Zaher Mundher TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Climate change is supposed to alter not only the mean and variability but also the distribution of rainfall. Changes in rainfall distribution during the monsoon months (June to September) of Bangladesh are evaluated in this study using quantile regression. Monthly rainfall data for the period 1961–2014 recorded at 18 locations distributed over the country were used for this purpose. Distributional changes of monthly rainfall showed downward convergent lines are dominant in peak monsoon months of June, July and August at 28%, 50% and 28% stations, respectively, followed by horizontally divergent lines at 17% of stations during those months. The dominating category of last monsoon month (September) rainfall was found upward divergent lines at 50% stations. The results revealed a decrease in many rainfall quantiles from June to August and increase in September in most of the stations. The increasing trend lines of September rainfall quantiles were found to become more diverse with time, which indicates an increase in rainfall extremes and the possibility of more floods which are already very common in the last month of monsoon in Bangladesh. The decrease in lower quantiles of rainfall in most of the monsoon months may cause an increase in the probability of droughts in the country. The study provided more insight on monsoon rainfall changes and improved understanding of climate change impacts on monsoon rainfall regime which can help in planning climate change adaptations in Bangladesh. Springer 2020-11 Article PeerReviewed Mohsenipour, Morteza and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Ziarh, Ghaith Falah and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher (2020) Changes in monsoon rainfall distribution of Bangladesh using quantile regression model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 142 (3-4). pp. 1329-1342. ISSN 0177-798X http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03387-x
institution Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
building UTM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
content_source UTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.utm.my/
topic TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Mohsenipour, Morteza
Shahid, Shamsuddin
Ziarh, Ghaith Falah
Yaseen, Zaher Mundher
Changes in monsoon rainfall distribution of Bangladesh using quantile regression model
description Climate change is supposed to alter not only the mean and variability but also the distribution of rainfall. Changes in rainfall distribution during the monsoon months (June to September) of Bangladesh are evaluated in this study using quantile regression. Monthly rainfall data for the period 1961–2014 recorded at 18 locations distributed over the country were used for this purpose. Distributional changes of monthly rainfall showed downward convergent lines are dominant in peak monsoon months of June, July and August at 28%, 50% and 28% stations, respectively, followed by horizontally divergent lines at 17% of stations during those months. The dominating category of last monsoon month (September) rainfall was found upward divergent lines at 50% stations. The results revealed a decrease in many rainfall quantiles from June to August and increase in September in most of the stations. The increasing trend lines of September rainfall quantiles were found to become more diverse with time, which indicates an increase in rainfall extremes and the possibility of more floods which are already very common in the last month of monsoon in Bangladesh. The decrease in lower quantiles of rainfall in most of the monsoon months may cause an increase in the probability of droughts in the country. The study provided more insight on monsoon rainfall changes and improved understanding of climate change impacts on monsoon rainfall regime which can help in planning climate change adaptations in Bangladesh.
format Article
author Mohsenipour, Morteza
Shahid, Shamsuddin
Ziarh, Ghaith Falah
Yaseen, Zaher Mundher
author_facet Mohsenipour, Morteza
Shahid, Shamsuddin
Ziarh, Ghaith Falah
Yaseen, Zaher Mundher
author_sort Mohsenipour, Morteza
title Changes in monsoon rainfall distribution of Bangladesh using quantile regression model
title_short Changes in monsoon rainfall distribution of Bangladesh using quantile regression model
title_full Changes in monsoon rainfall distribution of Bangladesh using quantile regression model
title_fullStr Changes in monsoon rainfall distribution of Bangladesh using quantile regression model
title_full_unstemmed Changes in monsoon rainfall distribution of Bangladesh using quantile regression model
title_sort changes in monsoon rainfall distribution of bangladesh using quantile regression model
publisher Springer
publishDate 2020
url http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/90829/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03387-x
_version_ 1702169607600603136
score 13.244414

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