Effects of road development, income inequality and economic growth on private vehicles ownership growth
This study postulated that the ratio of motorcycle to car ownership (MPC) could provide an indication of the level of traffic mix that help policy makers push for the best strategy according to the per capita gross domestic product (GDP), relative improvements in road mobility over road accessibi...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2022
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/114874/1/114874.pdf http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/114874/ http://ethesis.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/18197 |
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| Summary: | This study postulated that the ratio of motorcycle to car ownership (MPC) could
provide an indication of the level of traffic mix that help policy makers push for
the best strategy according to the per capita gross domestic product (GDP),
relative improvements in road mobility over road accessibility (MPA) and income
inequality (GINI). Using a panel dataset of 53 countries between 1963 and 2013,
three empirical studies using fixed-effects linear regression and Gompertz
function were conducted to test the above argument.
The first empirical study indicated that a rise in MPA led to increases in MPC at
lower per capita GDP but led to decreases in MPC once per capita GDP exceeds
USD$3,081. When the income level surpasses USD$44,767, rising MPA led to
increases in MPC again. In the presence of MPA effects, MPC was found to be
influenced by income inequality in a reverse U-shaped relationship. In the
absence of MPA effects, the reverse U-shaped relationship between MPC and
per capita GDP was found to exist under high income inequality condition. The
second empirical study found that the direct effects of GDP on MPC were found
to be positive at low levels of GDP and turned negative at higher levels of GDP.
The indirect effects were transmitted through changes in GINI as GDP rises. The
overall effects were found to be greater than the direct effects at both the lower
and higher ends of GDP but marginal at GDP level of USD$7,436. The third
empirical revealed that the rate of CAR was the highest under mid-range MPA
and lower GINI conditions. In contrast, the rate of CAR was the lowest under
extreme MPA and higher GINI conditions.
In conclusion, lower income countries are expected to observe a rapid rise in
motorcycle use if high mobility roads dominate the road network which in turn
would face a serious road safety issue. As such, these countries should
introduce new or enhance existing regulations on motorcycling, while looking into
the feasibility of building dedicated road infrastructure for motorcycles. On the
other hand, higher income countries with narrow income gaps and a balanced
mix of high mobility and high accessibility roads would observe rapid increase in
car use. These countries are recommended to strategize interventions to handle
the rise in traffic demand such as increasing the road capacity or introducing
policies to control car use. |
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