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Examining trade flow dynamics in the face of deglobalization and decoupling: A comparative analysis of developing and developed nations

This article examines the concepts of “deglobalization” and “decoupling” from the perspectives of developing and developed nations. It also assesses the short-term impacts of globalization, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and predicts the long-term effects on global trade and co...

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Main Authors: Imran-Ur-Rahman, ,, Shafi, Mohsin, Muhammad Ashraf, Fauzi, Fetuu, Enitilina Tatiani M.K.
Format: Article
Language:English
English
Published: Emerald Publishing 2024
Subjects:
AI Indexes (General)
HD28 Management. Industrial Management
Online Access:http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42055/1/2024_Kybernetes_Examining%20trade%20flow%20dynamics%20in.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42055/7/Examining%20trade%20flow%20dynamics%20in%20the%20face%20of%20deglobalization%20and%20decoupling_A%20comparative%20analysis%20of%20developing%20and%20developed%20nations_ABS.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42055/
https://doi.org/10.1108/K-02-2024-0503
https://doi.org/10.1108/K-02-2024-0503
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spelling my.ump.umpir.420552024-07-25T02:32:50Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42055/ Examining trade flow dynamics in the face of deglobalization and decoupling: A comparative analysis of developing and developed nations Imran-Ur-Rahman, , Shafi, Mohsin Muhammad Ashraf, Fauzi Fetuu, Enitilina Tatiani M.K. AI Indexes (General) HD28 Management. Industrial Management This article examines the concepts of “deglobalization” and “decoupling” from the perspectives of developing and developed nations. It also assesses the short-term impacts of globalization, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and predicts the long-term effects on global trade and cooperation between nations. Design/methodology/approach: Panel data from 85 countries (2000–2022) were utilized. Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) regression analysis was conducted to analyze pre- and post-COVID-19 globalization levels. The analysis focuses on trade patterns and trends, specifically comparing the effects on developing and developed nations. Findings: First, there was a slight decline in global trade in 2020 due to COVID-19, followed by recovery in 2021–2022. Second, developing nations experienced more significant trade declines than did developed nations. Third, while US? China trade decreased slightly, China-India and US-India trade increased during the pandemic. These findings suggest that while there may be short-term disruptions, long-term trends indicate resilience in global trade patterns, with shifts in output and new partnerships emerging. Originality/value: This study contributes to the understanding of deglobalization and decoupling by providing empirical evidence on pre- and post-COVID-19 trade patterns. The findings suggest that while globalization may have short-term effects, it is likely to lead to post-pandemic recovery and strengthened cooperation between developing and developed nations. This research also highlights the importance of developing strategies to manage uncertainty and external shocks in global trade, emphasizing the role of lockdown measures, national security considerations, and trade policies in shaping the future of globalization and decoupling. Emerald Publishing 2024 Article PeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42055/1/2024_Kybernetes_Examining%20trade%20flow%20dynamics%20in.pdf pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42055/7/Examining%20trade%20flow%20dynamics%20in%20the%20face%20of%20deglobalization%20and%20decoupling_A%20comparative%20analysis%20of%20developing%20and%20developed%20nations_ABS.pdf Imran-Ur-Rahman, , and Shafi, Mohsin and Muhammad Ashraf, Fauzi and Fetuu, Enitilina Tatiani M.K. (2024) Examining trade flow dynamics in the face of deglobalization and decoupling: A comparative analysis of developing and developed nations. Kybernetes. pp. 1-21. ISSN 0368-492X. (In Press / Online First) (In Press / Online First) https://doi.org/10.1108/K-02-2024-0503 https://doi.org/10.1108/K-02-2024-0503
institution Universiti Malaysia Pahang Al-Sultan Abdullah
building UMPSA Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaysia Pahang Al-Sultan Abdullah
content_source UMPSA Institutional Repository
url_provider http://umpir.ump.edu.my/
language English
English
topic AI Indexes (General)
HD28 Management. Industrial Management
spellingShingle AI Indexes (General)
HD28 Management. Industrial Management
Imran-Ur-Rahman, ,
Shafi, Mohsin
Muhammad Ashraf, Fauzi
Fetuu, Enitilina Tatiani M.K.
Examining trade flow dynamics in the face of deglobalization and decoupling: A comparative analysis of developing and developed nations
description This article examines the concepts of “deglobalization” and “decoupling” from the perspectives of developing and developed nations. It also assesses the short-term impacts of globalization, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and predicts the long-term effects on global trade and cooperation between nations. Design/methodology/approach: Panel data from 85 countries (2000–2022) were utilized. Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) regression analysis was conducted to analyze pre- and post-COVID-19 globalization levels. The analysis focuses on trade patterns and trends, specifically comparing the effects on developing and developed nations. Findings: First, there was a slight decline in global trade in 2020 due to COVID-19, followed by recovery in 2021–2022. Second, developing nations experienced more significant trade declines than did developed nations. Third, while US? China trade decreased slightly, China-India and US-India trade increased during the pandemic. These findings suggest that while there may be short-term disruptions, long-term trends indicate resilience in global trade patterns, with shifts in output and new partnerships emerging. Originality/value: This study contributes to the understanding of deglobalization and decoupling by providing empirical evidence on pre- and post-COVID-19 trade patterns. The findings suggest that while globalization may have short-term effects, it is likely to lead to post-pandemic recovery and strengthened cooperation between developing and developed nations. This research also highlights the importance of developing strategies to manage uncertainty and external shocks in global trade, emphasizing the role of lockdown measures, national security considerations, and trade policies in shaping the future of globalization and decoupling.
format Article
author Imran-Ur-Rahman, ,
Shafi, Mohsin
Muhammad Ashraf, Fauzi
Fetuu, Enitilina Tatiani M.K.
author_facet Imran-Ur-Rahman, ,
Shafi, Mohsin
Muhammad Ashraf, Fauzi
Fetuu, Enitilina Tatiani M.K.
author_sort Imran-Ur-Rahman, ,
title Examining trade flow dynamics in the face of deglobalization and decoupling: A comparative analysis of developing and developed nations
title_short Examining trade flow dynamics in the face of deglobalization and decoupling: A comparative analysis of developing and developed nations
title_full Examining trade flow dynamics in the face of deglobalization and decoupling: A comparative analysis of developing and developed nations
title_fullStr Examining trade flow dynamics in the face of deglobalization and decoupling: A comparative analysis of developing and developed nations
title_full_unstemmed Examining trade flow dynamics in the face of deglobalization and decoupling: A comparative analysis of developing and developed nations
title_sort examining trade flow dynamics in the face of deglobalization and decoupling: a comparative analysis of developing and developed nations
publisher Emerald Publishing
publishDate 2024
url http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42055/1/2024_Kybernetes_Examining%20trade%20flow%20dynamics%20in.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42055/7/Examining%20trade%20flow%20dynamics%20in%20the%20face%20of%20deglobalization%20and%20decoupling_A%20comparative%20analysis%20of%20developing%20and%20developed%20nations_ABS.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42055/
https://doi.org/10.1108/K-02-2024-0503
https://doi.org/10.1108/K-02-2024-0503
_version_ 1822924526213660672
score 13.2324915

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