صورة الغلاف

A Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis Incidences in Pasig City, Philippines

Tuberculosis (TB) is a serious infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium Tuberculosis that mainly affects the lungs but can also attack various body organs. Globally, it has been reported that the annual number of people provided with TB treatment has grown from 6 million in 2015 to 7 million in 20...

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محفوظ في:
التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
المؤلفون الرئيسيون: Decena, Ma. Carlota B., Tolentino, Michelle Anne C., Lincuna, Cael A.
التنسيق: مقال
اللغة:English
منشور في: UUM Press 2023
الموضوعات:
QA Mathematics
الوصول للمادة أونلاين:https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/29759/1/JCIA%2002%2002%202023%20219-251.pdf
https://doi.org/10.32890/jcia2023.2.2.5
https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/29759/
https://e-journal.uum.edu.my/index.php/jcia/article/view/16501
https://doi.org/10.32890/jcia2023.2.2.5
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id my.uum.repo.29759
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spelling my.uum.repo.297592023-09-10T15:04:34Z https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/29759/ A Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis Incidences in Pasig City, Philippines Decena, Ma. Carlota B. Tolentino, Michelle Anne C. Lincuna, Cael A. QA Mathematics Tuberculosis (TB) is a serious infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium Tuberculosis that mainly affects the lungs but can also attack various body organs. Globally, it has been reported that the annual number of people provided with TB treatment has grown from 6 million in 2015 to 7 million in 2018 and then 7.1 million in 2019 (WHO, 2020). In the Philippines alone, there had been an estimated 500,000 incident cases of TB in 2019. The study's objectives are to develop a model that indicates the occurrence of TB in Pasig City, determine the incidence rate in terms of gender and age of TB patients, and obtain the projected number of TB cases that will occur in 2021. In this study, only age and gender were considered in the demographic profile of the TB patients. Note that the data were organized per year and grouped according to age and gender. Since data gathered from the Pasig City Health Office (PCHO) is annually tallied, researchers used cubic spline interpolation to get data points between the given data to create an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Consequently, it was used to forecast the projected number of TB patients for 2021 compared to the actual data obtained in PCHO. The results present the best fit ARIMA model per age group followed by the predicted number of cases in 2021. It is worth noting that AG2M and AG3M have the least accurate model based on the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), a measure of accuracy between the projected value and the actual, due to their proportion. UUM Press 2023 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en cc4_by https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/29759/1/JCIA%2002%2002%202023%20219-251.pdf Decena, Ma. Carlota B. and Tolentino, Michelle Anne C. and Lincuna, Cael A. (2023) A Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis Incidences in Pasig City, Philippines. Journal of Computational Innovation and Analytics (JCIA), 2 (2). pp. 219-251. ISSN 2821-3408 https://e-journal.uum.edu.my/index.php/jcia/article/view/16501 https://doi.org/10.32890/jcia2023.2.2.5 https://doi.org/10.32890/jcia2023.2.2.5
institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
building UUM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Utara Malaysia
content_source UUM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://repo.uum.edu.my/
language English
topic QA Mathematics
spellingShingle QA Mathematics
Decena, Ma. Carlota B.
Tolentino, Michelle Anne C.
Lincuna, Cael A.
A Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis Incidences in Pasig City, Philippines
description Tuberculosis (TB) is a serious infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium Tuberculosis that mainly affects the lungs but can also attack various body organs. Globally, it has been reported that the annual number of people provided with TB treatment has grown from 6 million in 2015 to 7 million in 2018 and then 7.1 million in 2019 (WHO, 2020). In the Philippines alone, there had been an estimated 500,000 incident cases of TB in 2019. The study's objectives are to develop a model that indicates the occurrence of TB in Pasig City, determine the incidence rate in terms of gender and age of TB patients, and obtain the projected number of TB cases that will occur in 2021. In this study, only age and gender were considered in the demographic profile of the TB patients. Note that the data were organized per year and grouped according to age and gender. Since data gathered from the Pasig City Health Office (PCHO) is annually tallied, researchers used cubic spline interpolation to get data points between the given data to create an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Consequently, it was used to forecast the projected number of TB patients for 2021 compared to the actual data obtained in PCHO. The results present the best fit ARIMA model per age group followed by the predicted number of cases in 2021. It is worth noting that AG2M and AG3M have the least accurate model based on the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), a measure of accuracy between the projected value and the actual, due to their proportion.
format Article
author Decena, Ma. Carlota B.
Tolentino, Michelle Anne C.
Lincuna, Cael A.
author_facet Decena, Ma. Carlota B.
Tolentino, Michelle Anne C.
Lincuna, Cael A.
author_sort Decena, Ma. Carlota B.
title A Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis Incidences in Pasig City, Philippines
title_short A Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis Incidences in Pasig City, Philippines
title_full A Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis Incidences in Pasig City, Philippines
title_fullStr A Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis Incidences in Pasig City, Philippines
title_full_unstemmed A Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis Incidences in Pasig City, Philippines
title_sort time series analysis of tuberculosis incidences in pasig city, philippines
publisher UUM Press
publishDate 2023
url https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/29759/1/JCIA%2002%2002%202023%20219-251.pdf
https://doi.org/10.32890/jcia2023.2.2.5
https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/29759/
https://e-journal.uum.edu.my/index.php/jcia/article/view/16501
https://doi.org/10.32890/jcia2023.2.2.5
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score 13.250246

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