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Comparing forecasting effectiveness through air travel data

Airline traffic forecasting in the medium term is important to airlines and regulatory authorities that attempt to plan and schedule capacity. This study examines a number of alternative approaches to forecasting short to medium term (1 to 3 years) air traffic flows. The data examined are flows betw...

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Main Authors: Ismail, Suzilah, Tuan Muda, Tuan Zalizam
Format: Book Section
Language:English
Published: Faculty of Information Technology, Universiti Utara Malaysia 2006
Subjects:
QA Mathematics
Online Access:http://repo.uum.edu.my/2389/1/comparing_forecasting_effectiveness_through_01.pdf
http://repo.uum.edu.my/2389/
http://lintas.uum.edu.my:8080/elmu/index.jsp?module=webopac-l&action=fullDisplayRetriever.jsp&szMaterialNo=0000242843
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spelling my.uum.repo.23892011-02-21T08:01:36Z http://repo.uum.edu.my/2389/ Comparing forecasting effectiveness through air travel data Ismail, Suzilah Tuan Muda, Tuan Zalizam QA Mathematics Airline traffic forecasting in the medium term is important to airlines and regulatory authorities that attempt to plan and schedule capacity. This study examines a number of alternative approaches to forecasting short to medium term (1 to 3 years) air traffic flows. The data examined are flows between the UK and six other countries over the period of 1961- 2002, which has seen substantial changes in both transport technology and economic development. The economic drivers, under consideration, are price, income and bilateral trade. The forecasting models employed include autoregressive models, autoregressive distributed lag models specified using various statistical and economic criteria and a newly developed automatic method for model specification(PcGets), as well as time varying parameter models.Various approaches to including interactions between the contemporaneous air trriffic flows are examined including pooled autoregressive distributed lag models and the inclusion of a 'world' variable that measures overall trade growth in the world economy. Based on the analysis of forecasting error measures, it is concluded that time varying parameter models that include the 'world' variable with an average error of around 2.5% outperform alternative forecasting models. This is perhaps explained by the dramatic structural changes seen in the air traffic market. Faculty of Information Technology, Universiti Utara Malaysia 2006-06 Book Section PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://repo.uum.edu.my/2389/1/comparing_forecasting_effectiveness_through_01.pdf Ismail, Suzilah and Tuan Muda, Tuan Zalizam (2006) Comparing forecasting effectiveness through air travel data. In: Proceedings of Knowledge Management International Conference & Exhibition (KMICE) , 6 - 8 June 2006 Legend Hotel Kuala Lumpur. Faculty of Information Technology, Universiti Utara Malaysia, Sintok, pp. 594-602. ISBN 9833282903 http://lintas.uum.edu.my:8080/elmu/index.jsp?module=webopac-l&action=fullDisplayRetriever.jsp&szMaterialNo=0000242843
institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
building UUM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Utara Malaysia
content_source UUM Institutionali Repository
url_provider http://repo.uum.edu.my/
language English
topic QA Mathematics
spellingShingle QA Mathematics
Ismail, Suzilah
Tuan Muda, Tuan Zalizam
Comparing forecasting effectiveness through air travel data
description Airline traffic forecasting in the medium term is important to airlines and regulatory authorities that attempt to plan and schedule capacity. This study examines a number of alternative approaches to forecasting short to medium term (1 to 3 years) air traffic flows. The data examined are flows between the UK and six other countries over the period of 1961- 2002, which has seen substantial changes in both transport technology and economic development. The economic drivers, under consideration, are price, income and bilateral trade. The forecasting models employed include autoregressive models, autoregressive distributed lag models specified using various statistical and economic criteria and a newly developed automatic method for model specification(PcGets), as well as time varying parameter models.Various approaches to including interactions between the contemporaneous air trriffic flows are examined including pooled autoregressive distributed lag models and the inclusion of a 'world' variable that measures overall trade growth in the world economy. Based on the analysis of forecasting error measures, it is concluded that time varying parameter models that include the 'world' variable with an average error of around 2.5% outperform alternative forecasting models. This is perhaps explained by the dramatic structural changes seen in the air traffic market.
format Book Section
author Ismail, Suzilah
Tuan Muda, Tuan Zalizam
author_facet Ismail, Suzilah
Tuan Muda, Tuan Zalizam
author_sort Ismail, Suzilah
title Comparing forecasting effectiveness through air travel data
title_short Comparing forecasting effectiveness through air travel data
title_full Comparing forecasting effectiveness through air travel data
title_fullStr Comparing forecasting effectiveness through air travel data
title_full_unstemmed Comparing forecasting effectiveness through air travel data
title_sort comparing forecasting effectiveness through air travel data
publisher Faculty of Information Technology, Universiti Utara Malaysia
publishDate 2006
url http://repo.uum.edu.my/2389/1/comparing_forecasting_effectiveness_through_01.pdf
http://repo.uum.edu.my/2389/
http://lintas.uum.edu.my:8080/elmu/index.jsp?module=webopac-l&action=fullDisplayRetriever.jsp&szMaterialNo=0000242843
_version_ 1644278222728200192
score 13.211869

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