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Comparison of time series methods for electricity forecasting: A case study in Perlis

This paper attempts to forecast the monthly electricity demand for the state of Perlis using three time series methods namely Box-Jenkins ARIMA, Multiplicative Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing and Time Series Regression for the seasonal monthly data spanning from September 1996 to February 2004. Th...

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Main Authors: Abdul Rahman, Syariza, Mohd Noor, Norhafiza, Khalid, Kamal
Format: Conference or Workshop Item
Language:English
Published: 2005
Subjects:
QA Mathematics
Online Access:http://repo.uum.edu.my/218/1/COMPARISON_OF_TIME_SERIES_METHODS_FOR_ELECTRICITY....pdf
http://repo.uum.edu.my/218/
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spelling my.uum.repo.2182010-07-11T07:34:02Z http://repo.uum.edu.my/218/ Comparison of time series methods for electricity forecasting: A case study in Perlis Abdul Rahman, Syariza Mohd Noor, Norhafiza Khalid, Kamal QA Mathematics This paper attempts to forecast the monthly electricity demand for the state of Perlis using three time series methods namely Box-Jenkins ARIMA, Multiplicative Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing and Time Series Regression for the seasonal monthly data spanning from September 1996 to February 2004. The study focused only on the domestic sector because it reveals the seasonal nature of the data. The comparison is based on the forecast error which is evaluated from September 2003 onwards (six month period). This study showed that the data series did not reveal any drastic changes of electricity consumption for the forecasted period. The forecast values followed the same trend for every year, along with seasonal variation in data series. This study also found that Regression with seasonal element was the ‘best’ method for short term electricity forecasting in Perlis. 2005-12 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://repo.uum.edu.my/218/1/COMPARISON_OF_TIME_SERIES_METHODS_FOR_ELECTRICITY....pdf Abdul Rahman, Syariza and Mohd Noor, Norhafiza and Khalid, Kamal (2005) Comparison of time series methods for electricity forecasting: A case study in Perlis. In: The International Conference of Quantity Science and Its Applications ICOQSIA , 6 - 8 December, 2005, Penang, Malaysia. (Unpublished)
institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
building UUM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Utara Malaysia
content_source UUM Institutionali Repository
url_provider http://repo.uum.edu.my/
language English
topic QA Mathematics
spellingShingle QA Mathematics
Abdul Rahman, Syariza
Mohd Noor, Norhafiza
Khalid, Kamal
Comparison of time series methods for electricity forecasting: A case study in Perlis
description This paper attempts to forecast the monthly electricity demand for the state of Perlis using three time series methods namely Box-Jenkins ARIMA, Multiplicative Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing and Time Series Regression for the seasonal monthly data spanning from September 1996 to February 2004. The study focused only on the domestic sector because it reveals the seasonal nature of the data. The comparison is based on the forecast error which is evaluated from September 2003 onwards (six month period). This study showed that the data series did not reveal any drastic changes of electricity consumption for the forecasted period. The forecast values followed the same trend for every year, along with seasonal variation in data series. This study also found that Regression with seasonal element was the ‘best’ method for short term electricity forecasting in Perlis.
format Conference or Workshop Item
author Abdul Rahman, Syariza
Mohd Noor, Norhafiza
Khalid, Kamal
author_facet Abdul Rahman, Syariza
Mohd Noor, Norhafiza
Khalid, Kamal
author_sort Abdul Rahman, Syariza
title Comparison of time series methods for electricity forecasting: A case study in Perlis
title_short Comparison of time series methods for electricity forecasting: A case study in Perlis
title_full Comparison of time series methods for electricity forecasting: A case study in Perlis
title_fullStr Comparison of time series methods for electricity forecasting: A case study in Perlis
title_full_unstemmed Comparison of time series methods for electricity forecasting: A case study in Perlis
title_sort comparison of time series methods for electricity forecasting: a case study in perlis
publishDate 2005
url http://repo.uum.edu.my/218/1/COMPARISON_OF_TIME_SERIES_METHODS_FOR_ELECTRICITY....pdf
http://repo.uum.edu.my/218/
_version_ 1644277740206030848
score 13.235362

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