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A hybrid simulation approach in developing a risk quantification model for coal procurement in power generation

All energy systems provide some level of security to its consumers.However, the right or optimum level of security is very difficult to assess. In order to make a comparison between the cost of providing energy security and level of security, the quantified risks have to be in the common accounting...

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Main Authors: Ibrahim, Jafni Azhan, Sapiri, Hasimah, Mat Tahar, Razman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universiti Utara Malaysia 2015
Subjects:
QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Online Access:http://repo.uum.edu.my/14312/1/39-56.pdf
http://repo.uum.edu.my/14312/
http://jict.uum.edu.my/
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spelling my.uum.repo.143122016-04-14T03:57:13Z http://repo.uum.edu.my/14312/ A hybrid simulation approach in developing a risk quantification model for coal procurement in power generation Ibrahim, Jafni Azhan Sapiri, Hasimah Mat Tahar, Razman QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science All energy systems provide some level of security to its consumers.However, the right or optimum level of security is very difficult to assess. In order to make a comparison between the cost of providing energy security and level of security, the quantified risks have to be in the common accounting platform of cost.Then, an optimum level of security and cost can be estimated using appropriate methods.Since no such attempts have been done to compare the risks and the cost in the same platform, i.e. monetary unit, it is unpractical to determine the optimum point between the risks and cost of providing security in any energy systems.The objective of this paper is to present a new hybrid simulation model in risk analysis which computes the total exposure of coal procurement in power generation through the summation of quantified supply shortage risk in monetary terms and the cost of coal procurement. The hybrid simulation model is made up of two main components: 1) Dynamic Risk Calculation Program (DR-P) which was developed in System Dynamics platform for capturing the effect of dynamics behavior of price toward coal procurement risk, and 2) Non-delivery Probability Table Program (NdPT-P) which was developed in Matlab platform for computing all possible shortage level and the probability of shortage in selected coal procurement portfolio.The result from this paper has shown that the risks of coal procurement were increased as the cost of coal procurement were decreased and vice versa.However, the summation of risk and cost which give the total exposure of coal procurement has provided more accurate information for selecting the best coal procurement portfolio option. Universiti Utara Malaysia 2015 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://repo.uum.edu.my/14312/1/39-56.pdf Ibrahim, Jafni Azhan and Sapiri, Hasimah and Mat Tahar, Razman (2015) A hybrid simulation approach in developing a risk quantification model for coal procurement in power generation. Journal of ICT, 14. pp. 39-56. ISSN 1675-414X http://jict.uum.edu.my/
institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
building UUM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Utara Malaysia
content_source UUM Institutionali Repository
url_provider http://repo.uum.edu.my/
language English
topic QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
spellingShingle QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Ibrahim, Jafni Azhan
Sapiri, Hasimah
Mat Tahar, Razman
A hybrid simulation approach in developing a risk quantification model for coal procurement in power generation
description All energy systems provide some level of security to its consumers.However, the right or optimum level of security is very difficult to assess. In order to make a comparison between the cost of providing energy security and level of security, the quantified risks have to be in the common accounting platform of cost.Then, an optimum level of security and cost can be estimated using appropriate methods.Since no such attempts have been done to compare the risks and the cost in the same platform, i.e. monetary unit, it is unpractical to determine the optimum point between the risks and cost of providing security in any energy systems.The objective of this paper is to present a new hybrid simulation model in risk analysis which computes the total exposure of coal procurement in power generation through the summation of quantified supply shortage risk in monetary terms and the cost of coal procurement. The hybrid simulation model is made up of two main components: 1) Dynamic Risk Calculation Program (DR-P) which was developed in System Dynamics platform for capturing the effect of dynamics behavior of price toward coal procurement risk, and 2) Non-delivery Probability Table Program (NdPT-P) which was developed in Matlab platform for computing all possible shortage level and the probability of shortage in selected coal procurement portfolio.The result from this paper has shown that the risks of coal procurement were increased as the cost of coal procurement were decreased and vice versa.However, the summation of risk and cost which give the total exposure of coal procurement has provided more accurate information for selecting the best coal procurement portfolio option.
format Article
author Ibrahim, Jafni Azhan
Sapiri, Hasimah
Mat Tahar, Razman
author_facet Ibrahim, Jafni Azhan
Sapiri, Hasimah
Mat Tahar, Razman
author_sort Ibrahim, Jafni Azhan
title A hybrid simulation approach in developing a risk quantification model for coal procurement in power generation
title_short A hybrid simulation approach in developing a risk quantification model for coal procurement in power generation
title_full A hybrid simulation approach in developing a risk quantification model for coal procurement in power generation
title_fullStr A hybrid simulation approach in developing a risk quantification model for coal procurement in power generation
title_full_unstemmed A hybrid simulation approach in developing a risk quantification model for coal procurement in power generation
title_sort hybrid simulation approach in developing a risk quantification model for coal procurement in power generation
publisher Universiti Utara Malaysia
publishDate 2015
url http://repo.uum.edu.my/14312/1/39-56.pdf
http://repo.uum.edu.my/14312/
http://jict.uum.edu.my/
_version_ 1644281416291188736
score 13.211869

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