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Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models

This study compared the historical simulations and future projections of precipitation and temperature of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)5 and CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) to quantify the differences in the projections due to differences in scenarios. Five performance indicat...

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Main Authors: Song, Young Hoon, Chung, Eun Sung, Shahid, Shamsuddin
Format: Article
Published: John Wiley and Sons Ltd 2021
Subjects:
TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/94112/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7159
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spelling my.utm.941122022-02-28T13:32:08Z http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/94112/ Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models Song, Young Hoon Chung, Eun Sung Shahid, Shamsuddin TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) This study compared the historical simulations and future projections of precipitation and temperature of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)5 and CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) to quantify the differences in the projections due to differences in scenarios. Five performance indicators were used to quantify the model reproducibility of the observed precipitation levels at 22 stations for the historical period of 1970–2005. The percentages of change in precipitation and temperature were estimated for the near (2025–2060) and far future (2065–2100) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of CMIP5 and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2–4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of CMIP6. The uncertainty in the projection in each case was calculated using the reliability ensemble average (REA) method. As a result, the CMIP6 GCMs showed an improvement compared with the CMIP5 GCMs with regard to the ability to simulate the historical climate. The uncertainty in the precipitation projections was higher for SSPs than that in RCPs. With regard to the temperature, the uncertainty was higher for RCPs than for SSPs. The ensemble means of the precipitation and temperature showed higher changes in the far future compared with the near future for both RCPs and SSPs. This study contributes to improvement in the confidence of future projections using CMIP6 GCMs and bolsters our understanding of the relative uncertainty in SSPs and RCPs. John Wiley and Sons Ltd 2021-11-15 Article PeerReviewed Song, Young Hoon and Chung, Eun Sung and Shahid, Shamsuddin (2021) Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models. International Journal of Climatology, 41 (13). pp. 5899-5919. ISSN 0899-8418 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7159 DOI:10.1002/joc.7159
institution Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
building UTM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
content_source UTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.utm.my/
topic TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Song, Young Hoon
Chung, Eun Sung
Shahid, Shamsuddin
Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models
description This study compared the historical simulations and future projections of precipitation and temperature of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)5 and CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) to quantify the differences in the projections due to differences in scenarios. Five performance indicators were used to quantify the model reproducibility of the observed precipitation levels at 22 stations for the historical period of 1970–2005. The percentages of change in precipitation and temperature were estimated for the near (2025–2060) and far future (2065–2100) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of CMIP5 and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2–4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of CMIP6. The uncertainty in the projection in each case was calculated using the reliability ensemble average (REA) method. As a result, the CMIP6 GCMs showed an improvement compared with the CMIP5 GCMs with regard to the ability to simulate the historical climate. The uncertainty in the precipitation projections was higher for SSPs than that in RCPs. With regard to the temperature, the uncertainty was higher for RCPs than for SSPs. The ensemble means of the precipitation and temperature showed higher changes in the far future compared with the near future for both RCPs and SSPs. This study contributes to improvement in the confidence of future projections using CMIP6 GCMs and bolsters our understanding of the relative uncertainty in SSPs and RCPs.
format Article
author Song, Young Hoon
Chung, Eun Sung
Shahid, Shamsuddin
author_facet Song, Young Hoon
Chung, Eun Sung
Shahid, Shamsuddin
author_sort Song, Young Hoon
title Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models
title_short Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models
title_full Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models
title_fullStr Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models
title_full_unstemmed Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models
title_sort spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in south korea from cmip6 and cmip5 general circulation models
publisher John Wiley and Sons Ltd
publishDate 2021
url http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/94112/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7159
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score 13.211869

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