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Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649-2018: a typical city in North China

The objective of this study was to reconstruct the long-term drought and flood time series to analyze their changing characteristics in Hengshui City of North China. Disaster records of the city for 550 years (1649–2018) were collected from different sources and sorted to reconstruct the sequences o...

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Main Authors: Sun, Jiaqi, Wang, Xiaojun, Yin, Yixing, Shahid, Shamsuddin
Format: Article
Published: Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2021
Subjects:
TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/94091/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04769-8
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spelling my.utm.940912022-02-28T13:31:45Z http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/94091/ Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649-2018: a typical city in North China Sun, Jiaqi Wang, Xiaojun Yin, Yixing Shahid, Shamsuddin TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) The objective of this study was to reconstruct the long-term drought and flood time series to analyze their changing characteristics in Hengshui City of North China. Disaster records of the city for 550 years (1649–2018) were collected from different sources and sorted to reconstruct the sequences of droughts and floods. Advanced statistical methods for climate data analysis, including the Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, Morlet wavelet analysis, mutation point tests, and Rescaled range analysis, were used to analyze the historical changes and predict the direction of possible future changes in droughts and floods. The results showed an increased frequency of droughts and a decreased frequency of floods in Hengshui City, making drought occurrence significantly higher than flood occurrence in the twentieth century. The solar activity cycle of 11-year and its multiple showed the association with 10–15 years and 25 years cycles of droughts and floods, respectively. The mutation points in drought and flood sequences during 1559–1568 and 1909–1918 showed insignificant downward (upward) and upward (downward) trends, respectively, in the drought (flood) subsequence before and after the mutation point. The rescaled range analysis revealed an insignificant decreasing trend in droughts and the continuation of the present decreasing trend in floods in the forthcoming years. Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2021-09 Article PeerReviewed Sun, Jiaqi and Wang, Xiaojun and Yin, Yixing and Shahid, Shamsuddin (2021) Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649-2018: a typical city in North China. Natural Hazards, 108 (2). pp. 2081-2099. ISSN 0921-030X http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04769-8 DOI:10.1007/s11069-021-04769-8
institution Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
building UTM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
content_source UTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.utm.my/
topic TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Sun, Jiaqi
Wang, Xiaojun
Yin, Yixing
Shahid, Shamsuddin
Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649-2018: a typical city in North China
description The objective of this study was to reconstruct the long-term drought and flood time series to analyze their changing characteristics in Hengshui City of North China. Disaster records of the city for 550 years (1649–2018) were collected from different sources and sorted to reconstruct the sequences of droughts and floods. Advanced statistical methods for climate data analysis, including the Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, Morlet wavelet analysis, mutation point tests, and Rescaled range analysis, were used to analyze the historical changes and predict the direction of possible future changes in droughts and floods. The results showed an increased frequency of droughts and a decreased frequency of floods in Hengshui City, making drought occurrence significantly higher than flood occurrence in the twentieth century. The solar activity cycle of 11-year and its multiple showed the association with 10–15 years and 25 years cycles of droughts and floods, respectively. The mutation points in drought and flood sequences during 1559–1568 and 1909–1918 showed insignificant downward (upward) and upward (downward) trends, respectively, in the drought (flood) subsequence before and after the mutation point. The rescaled range analysis revealed an insignificant decreasing trend in droughts and the continuation of the present decreasing trend in floods in the forthcoming years.
format Article
author Sun, Jiaqi
Wang, Xiaojun
Yin, Yixing
Shahid, Shamsuddin
author_facet Sun, Jiaqi
Wang, Xiaojun
Yin, Yixing
Shahid, Shamsuddin
author_sort Sun, Jiaqi
title Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649-2018: a typical city in North China
title_short Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649-2018: a typical city in North China
title_full Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649-2018: a typical city in North China
title_fullStr Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649-2018: a typical city in North China
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649-2018: a typical city in North China
title_sort analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of hengshui during the period 1649-2018: a typical city in north china
publisher Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
publishDate 2021
url http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/94091/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04769-8
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score 13.211869

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