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A combination index measurement in forecasting daily air pollution index

Error magnitude is a measurement commonly used in forecast evaluation. However, the purpose of forecasting air quality is to maintain the air quality within assigned guidelines. Thus, the index measurement is important to be considered. But, the problem arises when the index is used to gauge the val...

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Main Authors: Abd. Rahman, N. H., Lee, M. H.
Format: Conference or Workshop Item
Language:English
Published: 2019
Subjects:
QA Mathematics
Online Access:http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/90763/1/NurHaizumAbdRahman2019_ACombinationIndexMeasurement.pdf
http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/90763/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.5121130
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spelling my.utm.907632021-04-30T14:30:30Z http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/90763/ A combination index measurement in forecasting daily air pollution index Abd. Rahman, N. H. Lee, M. H. QA Mathematics Error magnitude is a measurement commonly used in forecast evaluation. However, the purpose of forecasting air quality is to maintain the air quality within assigned guidelines. Thus, the index measurement is important to be considered. But, the problem arises when the index is used to gauge the values of different offices and these measurements are found to be degenerate in commonly occurring situations. Therefore, this study aims to overcome both of the limitations. The daily air pollutant index (API) data from year 2005 to 2011 was used to compare the forecast performance between Box-Jenkins methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) and hybrid method. The forecast accuracy measurements used include mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), true predicted rate (TPR), false positive rate (FPR), false alarm rate (FAR) and successful index (SI) including the proposed index measurement, combination index (CI). It is found that the index measurement enhance the ability to measure the air quality forecast performance in choosing the best forecast method with CI significantly overcome the limitation of existing index measurement. Thus, this study suggests to use the appropriate measurement in accordance to the purpose of forecasting. 2019 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/90763/1/NurHaizumAbdRahman2019_ACombinationIndexMeasurement.pdf Abd. Rahman, N. H. and Lee, M. H. (2019) A combination index measurement in forecasting daily air pollution index. In: The 4Th Innovation And Analytics Conference & Exhibition (IACE 2019), 25–28 March 2019, Kedah, Malaysia. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.5121130
institution Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
building UTM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
content_source UTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.utm.my/
language English
topic QA Mathematics
spellingShingle QA Mathematics
Abd. Rahman, N. H.
Lee, M. H.
A combination index measurement in forecasting daily air pollution index
description Error magnitude is a measurement commonly used in forecast evaluation. However, the purpose of forecasting air quality is to maintain the air quality within assigned guidelines. Thus, the index measurement is important to be considered. But, the problem arises when the index is used to gauge the values of different offices and these measurements are found to be degenerate in commonly occurring situations. Therefore, this study aims to overcome both of the limitations. The daily air pollutant index (API) data from year 2005 to 2011 was used to compare the forecast performance between Box-Jenkins methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) and hybrid method. The forecast accuracy measurements used include mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), true predicted rate (TPR), false positive rate (FPR), false alarm rate (FAR) and successful index (SI) including the proposed index measurement, combination index (CI). It is found that the index measurement enhance the ability to measure the air quality forecast performance in choosing the best forecast method with CI significantly overcome the limitation of existing index measurement. Thus, this study suggests to use the appropriate measurement in accordance to the purpose of forecasting.
format Conference or Workshop Item
author Abd. Rahman, N. H.
Lee, M. H.
author_facet Abd. Rahman, N. H.
Lee, M. H.
author_sort Abd. Rahman, N. H.
title A combination index measurement in forecasting daily air pollution index
title_short A combination index measurement in forecasting daily air pollution index
title_full A combination index measurement in forecasting daily air pollution index
title_fullStr A combination index measurement in forecasting daily air pollution index
title_full_unstemmed A combination index measurement in forecasting daily air pollution index
title_sort combination index measurement in forecasting daily air pollution index
publishDate 2019
url http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/90763/1/NurHaizumAbdRahman2019_ACombinationIndexMeasurement.pdf
http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/90763/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.5121130
_version_ 1698696981994536960
score 13.211869

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