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Copula based assessment of meteorological drought characteristics: Regional investigation of Iran

Arid and semi-arid climate of Iran has made it highly vulnerable to droughts. Comprehensive monitoring of drought characteristics is important for better understanding of drought behaviors for mitigation planning. Spatial analysis of multiple characteristics of meteorological droughts in Iran is con...

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Main Authors:	Nabaei, Sina, Sharafati, Ahmad, Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, Shahid, Shamsuddin
Format:	Article
Published:	Elsevier B.V. 2019
Subjects:	TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/87825/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.06.010
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id	my.utm.87825
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spelling	my.utm.878252020-11-30T13:21:19Z http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/87825/ Copula based assessment of meteorological drought characteristics: Regional investigation of Iran Nabaei, Sina Sharafati, Ahmad Yaseen, Zaher Mundher Shahid, Shamsuddin TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Arid and semi-arid climate of Iran has made it highly vulnerable to droughts. Comprehensive monitoring of drought characteristics is important for better understanding of drought behaviors for mitigation planning. Spatial analysis of multiple characteristics of meteorological droughts in Iran is conducted in this study using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Copula functions. Monthly rainfall data of 102 synoptic stations are used to estimate three characteristics of droughts namely Severity (S), Peak (P) and Duration (D). Eight Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) are used to select the best fit marginal distribution of univariate drought characteristics based on Kolmogorov Smirnov and Chi squared statistics. Archimedean Copulas (Clayton, Frank, and Gumbel) are fitted to the joint S-P, S-D and P-D datasets by Maximum Pseudo Likelihood Estimator (MPLE). The cross-validation Copula Information Criterion (CIC) is used to select the best model according to goodness of fit of the Copulas. The best-fit Copula model is used for the generation of 42 return period maps of different classes of drought characteristics in order to investigate the spatial patterns of joint return period of drought characteristics. Further, the distribution of S, P, and D classes is categorized into different return periods (T) for the generation of maps to facilitate drought management. Results revealed that 1-, 2-, and 3-month mild droughts with slight picks occur mostly in the center of Iran (0 < T < 10). Almost the entire country experiences 1-month droughts with a slight peak once in 10–25 years. The 2- and 3-month duration moderate peak droughts have a return period of 25–50 years in the north. The 2- and 3-month droughts with extreme severity is also frequent in the north. The generated maps exhibit a comprehensive view of droughts over Iran which can be used for better drought management. Elsevier B.V. 2019-10 Article PeerReviewed Nabaei, Sina and Sharafati, Ahmad and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher and Shahid, Shamsuddin (2019) Copula based assessment of meteorological drought characteristics: Regional investigation of Iran. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 276-27 . p. 107611. ISSN 0168-1923 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.06.010
institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
building	UTM Library
collection	Institutional Repository
continent	Asia
country	Malaysia
content_provider	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
content_source	UTM Institutional Repository
url_provider	http://eprints.utm.my/
topic	TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle	TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Nabaei, Sina Sharafati, Ahmad Yaseen, Zaher Mundher Shahid, Shamsuddin Copula based assessment of meteorological drought characteristics: Regional investigation of Iran
description	Arid and semi-arid climate of Iran has made it highly vulnerable to droughts. Comprehensive monitoring of drought characteristics is important for better understanding of drought behaviors for mitigation planning. Spatial analysis of multiple characteristics of meteorological droughts in Iran is conducted in this study using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Copula functions. Monthly rainfall data of 102 synoptic stations are used to estimate three characteristics of droughts namely Severity (S), Peak (P) and Duration (D). Eight Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) are used to select the best fit marginal distribution of univariate drought characteristics based on Kolmogorov Smirnov and Chi squared statistics. Archimedean Copulas (Clayton, Frank, and Gumbel) are fitted to the joint S-P, S-D and P-D datasets by Maximum Pseudo Likelihood Estimator (MPLE). The cross-validation Copula Information Criterion (CIC) is used to select the best model according to goodness of fit of the Copulas. The best-fit Copula model is used for the generation of 42 return period maps of different classes of drought characteristics in order to investigate the spatial patterns of joint return period of drought characteristics. Further, the distribution of S, P, and D classes is categorized into different return periods (T) for the generation of maps to facilitate drought management. Results revealed that 1-, 2-, and 3-month mild droughts with slight picks occur mostly in the center of Iran (0 < T < 10). Almost the entire country experiences 1-month droughts with a slight peak once in 10–25 years. The 2- and 3-month duration moderate peak droughts have a return period of 25–50 years in the north. The 2- and 3-month droughts with extreme severity is also frequent in the north. The generated maps exhibit a comprehensive view of droughts over Iran which can be used for better drought management.
format	Article
author	Nabaei, Sina Sharafati, Ahmad Yaseen, Zaher Mundher Shahid, Shamsuddin
author_facet	Nabaei, Sina Sharafati, Ahmad Yaseen, Zaher Mundher Shahid, Shamsuddin
author_sort	Nabaei, Sina
title	Copula based assessment of meteorological drought characteristics: Regional investigation of Iran
title_short	Copula based assessment of meteorological drought characteristics: Regional investigation of Iran
title_full	Copula based assessment of meteorological drought characteristics: Regional investigation of Iran
title_fullStr	Copula based assessment of meteorological drought characteristics: Regional investigation of Iran
title_full_unstemmed	Copula based assessment of meteorological drought characteristics: Regional investigation of Iran
title_sort	copula based assessment of meteorological drought characteristics: regional investigation of iran
publisher	Elsevier B.V.
publishDate	2019
url	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/87825/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.06.010
_version_	1685578995280642048
score	13.211869

Copula based assessment of meteorological drought characteristics: Regional investigation of Iran

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