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Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016

The changing characteristics of aridity over a larger spatiotemporal scale have gained interest in recent years due to climate change. The long-term (1901-2016) changes in spatiotemporal patterns of annual and seasonal aridity during two major crop growing seasons of Pakistan, Kharif and Rabi, are e...

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Main Authors:	Ahmed, Kamal, Shahid, Shamsuddin, Wang, Xiaojun, Nawaz, Nadeem, Khan, Najeebullah
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	Copernicus GmbH 2019
Subjects:	TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/87722/1/ShamsuddinShahid2019_SpatiotemporalChangesinAridityofPakistan.pdf http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/87722/ http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3081-2019
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spelling	my.utm.877222020-11-30T13:15:04Z http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/87722/ Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016 Ahmed, Kamal Shahid, Shamsuddin Wang, Xiaojun Nawaz, Nadeem Khan, Najeebullah TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) The changing characteristics of aridity over a larger spatiotemporal scale have gained interest in recent years due to climate change. The long-term (1901-2016) changes in spatiotemporal patterns of annual and seasonal aridity during two major crop growing seasons of Pakistan, Kharif and Rabi, are evaluated in this study using gridded precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data. The UNESCO aridity index was used to estimate aridity at each grid point for all the years between 1901 and 2016. The temporal changes in aridity and its associations with precipitation and PET are evaluated by implementing a moving window of 50 years of data with an 11-year interval. The modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test is applied to estimate unidirectional change by eliminating the effect of natural variability of climate, and Pettitt's test is used to detect year of change in aridity. The results revealed that the climate over 60 % of Pakistan (mainly in southern parts) is arid. The spatial patterns of aridity trends show a strong influence of the changes in precipitation on the aridity trend. The increasing trend in aridity (drier) is noticed in the southwest, where precipitation is low during Kharif, while there is a decreasing trend (wetter) in the Rabi season in the region which receives high precipitation due to western disturbances. The annual and Kharif aridity is found to decrease (wetter) at a rate of 0.0001 to 0.0002 per year in the northeast, while Kharif and Rabi aridity are found to increase (drier) at some locations in the south at a rate of - 0:0019 to -0:0001 per year. The spatial patterns of aridity changes show a shift from arid to the semi-arid (wetter) climate in annual and Kharif over a large area while showing a shift from arid to hyperarid (drier) region during Rabi in a small area. Most of the significant changes in precipitation and aridity are observed in the years between 1971 and 1980. Overall, aridity is found to increase (drier) in 0.52 %, 4.44 % and 0.52 % of the area and decrease (wetter) in 11.75 %, 7.57 % and 9.66 % of the area for annual, Rabi and Kharif seasons respectively during 1967-2016 relative to 1901-1950. Copernicus GmbH 2019-07 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/87722/1/ShamsuddinShahid2019_SpatiotemporalChangesinAridityofPakistan.pdf Ahmed, Kamal and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Wang, Xiaojun and Nawaz, Nadeem and Khan, Najeebullah (2019) Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23 (7). pp. 3081-3096. ISSN 1027-5606 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3081-2019
institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
building	UTM Library
collection	Institutional Repository
continent	Asia
country	Malaysia
content_provider	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
content_source	UTM Institutional Repository
url_provider	http://eprints.utm.my/
language	English
topic	TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle	TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Ahmed, Kamal Shahid, Shamsuddin Wang, Xiaojun Nawaz, Nadeem Khan, Najeebullah Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016
description	The changing characteristics of aridity over a larger spatiotemporal scale have gained interest in recent years due to climate change. The long-term (1901-2016) changes in spatiotemporal patterns of annual and seasonal aridity during two major crop growing seasons of Pakistan, Kharif and Rabi, are evaluated in this study using gridded precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data. The UNESCO aridity index was used to estimate aridity at each grid point for all the years between 1901 and 2016. The temporal changes in aridity and its associations with precipitation and PET are evaluated by implementing a moving window of 50 years of data with an 11-year interval. The modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test is applied to estimate unidirectional change by eliminating the effect of natural variability of climate, and Pettitt's test is used to detect year of change in aridity. The results revealed that the climate over 60 % of Pakistan (mainly in southern parts) is arid. The spatial patterns of aridity trends show a strong influence of the changes in precipitation on the aridity trend. The increasing trend in aridity (drier) is noticed in the southwest, where precipitation is low during Kharif, while there is a decreasing trend (wetter) in the Rabi season in the region which receives high precipitation due to western disturbances. The annual and Kharif aridity is found to decrease (wetter) at a rate of 0.0001 to 0.0002 per year in the northeast, while Kharif and Rabi aridity are found to increase (drier) at some locations in the south at a rate of - 0:0019 to -0:0001 per year. The spatial patterns of aridity changes show a shift from arid to the semi-arid (wetter) climate in annual and Kharif over a large area while showing a shift from arid to hyperarid (drier) region during Rabi in a small area. Most of the significant changes in precipitation and aridity are observed in the years between 1971 and 1980. Overall, aridity is found to increase (drier) in 0.52 %, 4.44 % and 0.52 % of the area and decrease (wetter) in 11.75 %, 7.57 % and 9.66 % of the area for annual, Rabi and Kharif seasons respectively during 1967-2016 relative to 1901-1950.
format	Article
author	Ahmed, Kamal Shahid, Shamsuddin Wang, Xiaojun Nawaz, Nadeem Khan, Najeebullah
author_facet	Ahmed, Kamal Shahid, Shamsuddin Wang, Xiaojun Nawaz, Nadeem Khan, Najeebullah
author_sort	Ahmed, Kamal
title	Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016
title_short	Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016
title_full	Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016
title_fullStr	Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016
title_full_unstemmed	Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016
title_sort	spatiotemporal changes in aridity of pakistan during 1901-2016
publisher	Copernicus GmbH
publishDate	2019
url	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/87722/1/ShamsuddinShahid2019_SpatiotemporalChangesinAridityofPakistan.pdf http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/87722/ http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3081-2019
_version_	1685578979407298560
score	13.211869

Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016

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