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Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the l...

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Main Authors: Suhaila, J., Yusop, Z.
Format: Article
Published: Springer-Verlag Wien 2017
Subjects:
QA Mathematics
Online Access:http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/77204/
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85020249035&doi=10.1007%2fs00703-017-0537-6&partnerID=40&md5=615e0547b3d66e2fac1793d4f286904b
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spelling my.utm.772042020-07-27T03:34:20Z http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/77204/ Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia Suhaila, J. Yusop, Z. QA Mathematics Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann–Kendall (SQ–MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ–MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2–5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event. Springer-Verlag Wien 2017-06 Article PeerReviewed Suhaila, J. and Yusop, Z. (2017) Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 130 (5). pp. 565-581. ISSN 0177-7971 (In Press) https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85020249035&doi=10.1007%2fs00703-017-0537-6&partnerID=40&md5=615e0547b3d66e2fac1793d4f286904b DOI:10.1007/s00703-017-0537-6
institution Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
building UTM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
content_source UTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.utm.my/
topic QA Mathematics
spellingShingle QA Mathematics
Suhaila, J.
Yusop, Z.
Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia
description Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann–Kendall (SQ–MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ–MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2–5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.
format Article
author Suhaila, J.
Yusop, Z.
author_facet Suhaila, J.
Yusop, Z.
author_sort Suhaila, J.
title Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia
title_short Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia
title_full Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia
title_fullStr Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia
title_sort trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in peninsular malaysia
publisher Springer-Verlag Wien
publishDate 2017
url http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/77204/
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85020249035&doi=10.1007%2fs00703-017-0537-6&partnerID=40&md5=615e0547b3d66e2fac1793d4f286904b
_version_ 1674066189466206208
score 13.211869

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