Cover Image

Joint modelling of drought severity and duration using Copula theory: a case study of Ghana

Analysing and understanding the occurrence and development of droughts is of great significance in mitigating drought impacts. This study assessed the possible changes in the joint distribution of drought duration and severity in two major cities of Ghana, Accra and Yendi. The duration and severity...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Adutwum, Gyamfi Kwame, Chung, Eun Sung, Shiru, Mohammed Sanusi, Shahid, Shamsuddin
Format: Article
Published: Springer Nature 2023
Subjects:
TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:http://eprints.utm.my/105192/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12205-023-1423-z
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
id my.utm.105192
record_format eprints
spelling my.utm.1051922024-06-30T06:19:39Z http://eprints.utm.my/105192/ Joint modelling of drought severity and duration using Copula theory: a case study of Ghana Adutwum, Gyamfi Kwame Chung, Eun Sung Shiru, Mohammed Sanusi Shahid, Shamsuddin TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Analysing and understanding the occurrence and development of droughts is of great significance in mitigating drought impacts. This study assessed the possible changes in the joint distribution of drought duration and severity in two major cities of Ghana, Accra and Yendi. The duration and severity of droughts, estimated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), were determined based on run theory. The best-fitted Copula models were used to combine the drought duration and severity to analyse the drought return period. The gamma, lognormal and Weibull distributions were considered to select the marginal distributions for the duration and severity, while the normal, t, Gumbel, Joe, Clayton and Frank copulas to select the best-fit Copula model. Bias corrected climate simulations of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the CMIP6 were used to project drought characteristics for the near and far futures. The results showed the Clayton and Frank copulas as the most suitable for fitting the joint distribution of drought duration and severity at Accra and Yendi, respectively. Lognormal and Weibull distributions were the most suitable for the marginal distributions of severity and duration, respectively. The joint return periods of droughts showed almost no change in the future compared to the historical period in Accra with a historical mean of 11.36 and a near and far future mean of 12.26 and 10.30 respectively but significantly reduced return periods in the future in Yendi with a near and far future means of 1.47 and 2.13 respectively compared to a historical mean of 17.40. The drought risks estimated for different future periods can provide useful information in planning, management, and assessing the adequacy of the water structures in the region. Springer Nature 2023-04 Article PeerReviewed Adutwum, Gyamfi Kwame and Chung, Eun Sung and Shiru, Mohammed Sanusi and Shahid, Shamsuddin (2023) Joint modelling of drought severity and duration using Copula theory: a case study of Ghana. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 27 (4). pp. 1850-1865. ISSN 1226-7988 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12205-023-1423-z DOI:10.1007/s12205-023-1423-z
institution Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
building UTM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
content_source UTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.utm.my/
topic TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Adutwum, Gyamfi Kwame
Chung, Eun Sung
Shiru, Mohammed Sanusi
Shahid, Shamsuddin
Joint modelling of drought severity and duration using Copula theory: a case study of Ghana
description Analysing and understanding the occurrence and development of droughts is of great significance in mitigating drought impacts. This study assessed the possible changes in the joint distribution of drought duration and severity in two major cities of Ghana, Accra and Yendi. The duration and severity of droughts, estimated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), were determined based on run theory. The best-fitted Copula models were used to combine the drought duration and severity to analyse the drought return period. The gamma, lognormal and Weibull distributions were considered to select the marginal distributions for the duration and severity, while the normal, t, Gumbel, Joe, Clayton and Frank copulas to select the best-fit Copula model. Bias corrected climate simulations of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the CMIP6 were used to project drought characteristics for the near and far futures. The results showed the Clayton and Frank copulas as the most suitable for fitting the joint distribution of drought duration and severity at Accra and Yendi, respectively. Lognormal and Weibull distributions were the most suitable for the marginal distributions of severity and duration, respectively. The joint return periods of droughts showed almost no change in the future compared to the historical period in Accra with a historical mean of 11.36 and a near and far future mean of 12.26 and 10.30 respectively but significantly reduced return periods in the future in Yendi with a near and far future means of 1.47 and 2.13 respectively compared to a historical mean of 17.40. The drought risks estimated for different future periods can provide useful information in planning, management, and assessing the adequacy of the water structures in the region.
format Article
author Adutwum, Gyamfi Kwame
Chung, Eun Sung
Shiru, Mohammed Sanusi
Shahid, Shamsuddin
author_facet Adutwum, Gyamfi Kwame
Chung, Eun Sung
Shiru, Mohammed Sanusi
Shahid, Shamsuddin
author_sort Adutwum, Gyamfi Kwame
title Joint modelling of drought severity and duration using Copula theory: a case study of Ghana
title_short Joint modelling of drought severity and duration using Copula theory: a case study of Ghana
title_full Joint modelling of drought severity and duration using Copula theory: a case study of Ghana
title_fullStr Joint modelling of drought severity and duration using Copula theory: a case study of Ghana
title_full_unstemmed Joint modelling of drought severity and duration using Copula theory: a case study of Ghana
title_sort joint modelling of drought severity and duration using copula theory: a case study of ghana
publisher Springer Nature
publishDate 2023
url http://eprints.utm.my/105192/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12205-023-1423-z
_version_ 1803334980521164800
score 13.211869

Similar Items