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Projection of thermal bioclimate of Egypt for the Paris agreement goals

This paper presents the likely changes in the thermal bioclimate of Egypt under the Paris Agreement, which aimed to restrict global warming to increase by 1.5–2.0 °C. A mean multi-model ensemble (MME) of eight global climate models were employed to evaluate the two shared socioeconomic paths (SSP) s...

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Main Authors: Hamed, Mohammed Magdy, Nashwan, Mohamed Salem, Ismail, Tarmizi, Shahid, Shamsuddin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI 2022
Subjects:
TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:http://eprints.utm.my/104395/1/ShamsuddinShahid2022_ProjectionofThermalBioclimateofEgypt.pdf
http://eprints.utm.my/104395/
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su142013259
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spelling my.utm.1043952024-02-04T09:48:51Z http://eprints.utm.my/104395/ Projection of thermal bioclimate of Egypt for the Paris agreement goals Hamed, Mohammed Magdy Nashwan, Mohamed Salem Ismail, Tarmizi Shahid, Shamsuddin TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) This paper presents the likely changes in the thermal bioclimate of Egypt under the Paris Agreement, which aimed to restrict global warming to increase by 1.5–2.0 °C. A mean multi-model ensemble (MME) of eight global climate models were employed to evaluate the two shared socioeconomic paths (SSP) scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, which indicated scenarios for 1.5 and 2.0 °C rates of warming, respectively. The spatial distribution of the observed bioclimate indicated higher values in the south and southeast regions. The findings showed that there was an increase in Egypt’s mean temperature by rates of 1.3 and 1.5 °C for SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, respectively, with a higher increase in the southeast. The SSP1-2.6 scenario showed a gradual temperature rise with time, while SSP1-1.9 projected a decrease in the far future. The daily temperature variation decreased in the same region, but this effect was amplified in the north by 0.2 °C. The seasonality decreased by −0.8 to −2.3% without any shift in isothermality. The maximum summer temperature increased more (1.3–2.2 °C) than the minimum winter temperature (0.9–1.5 °C), causing an increase in inter-seasonal variability. Most bioclimatic indicators more rapidly rose in the north and northeast regions of Egypt, according to the geographical distribution of their projections. MDPI 2022-10 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://eprints.utm.my/104395/1/ShamsuddinShahid2022_ProjectionofThermalBioclimateofEgypt.pdf Hamed, Mohammed Magdy and Nashwan, Mohamed Salem and Ismail, Tarmizi and Shahid, Shamsuddin (2022) Projection of thermal bioclimate of Egypt for the Paris agreement goals. Sustainability, 14 (20). pp. 1-19. ISSN 2071-1050 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su142013259 DOI:10.3390/su142013259
institution Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
building UTM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
content_source UTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.utm.my/
language English
topic TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Hamed, Mohammed Magdy
Nashwan, Mohamed Salem
Ismail, Tarmizi
Shahid, Shamsuddin
Projection of thermal bioclimate of Egypt for the Paris agreement goals
description This paper presents the likely changes in the thermal bioclimate of Egypt under the Paris Agreement, which aimed to restrict global warming to increase by 1.5–2.0 °C. A mean multi-model ensemble (MME) of eight global climate models were employed to evaluate the two shared socioeconomic paths (SSP) scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, which indicated scenarios for 1.5 and 2.0 °C rates of warming, respectively. The spatial distribution of the observed bioclimate indicated higher values in the south and southeast regions. The findings showed that there was an increase in Egypt’s mean temperature by rates of 1.3 and 1.5 °C for SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, respectively, with a higher increase in the southeast. The SSP1-2.6 scenario showed a gradual temperature rise with time, while SSP1-1.9 projected a decrease in the far future. The daily temperature variation decreased in the same region, but this effect was amplified in the north by 0.2 °C. The seasonality decreased by −0.8 to −2.3% without any shift in isothermality. The maximum summer temperature increased more (1.3–2.2 °C) than the minimum winter temperature (0.9–1.5 °C), causing an increase in inter-seasonal variability. Most bioclimatic indicators more rapidly rose in the north and northeast regions of Egypt, according to the geographical distribution of their projections.
format Article
author Hamed, Mohammed Magdy
Nashwan, Mohamed Salem
Ismail, Tarmizi
Shahid, Shamsuddin
author_facet Hamed, Mohammed Magdy
Nashwan, Mohamed Salem
Ismail, Tarmizi
Shahid, Shamsuddin
author_sort Hamed, Mohammed Magdy
title Projection of thermal bioclimate of Egypt for the Paris agreement goals
title_short Projection of thermal bioclimate of Egypt for the Paris agreement goals
title_full Projection of thermal bioclimate of Egypt for the Paris agreement goals
title_fullStr Projection of thermal bioclimate of Egypt for the Paris agreement goals
title_full_unstemmed Projection of thermal bioclimate of Egypt for the Paris agreement goals
title_sort projection of thermal bioclimate of egypt for the paris agreement goals
publisher MDPI
publishDate 2022
url http://eprints.utm.my/104395/1/ShamsuddinShahid2022_ProjectionofThermalBioclimateofEgypt.pdf
http://eprints.utm.my/104395/
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su142013259
_version_ 1792147728292118528
score 13.211869

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