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Electricity load forecasting for power system planning and operation by using artificial neural network

The electrical power system performance is obtained when generation keeps pace with demand. The generation, transmission, and distribution companies need a method for forecasting electrical load to maximize the security, efficiency, and economic utilization of their electrical infrastructure. The ne...

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Main Author: Mohamed, Yakub Hussein
Format: Thesis
Language:English
Published: 2022
Subjects:
TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Online Access:http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/102772/1/YakubHusseinMohamedMSKE2022.pdf.pdf
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spelling my.utm.1027722023-09-20T03:54:05Z http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/102772/ Electricity load forecasting for power system planning and operation by using artificial neural network Mohamed, Yakub Hussein TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering The electrical power system performance is obtained when generation keeps pace with demand. The generation, transmission, and distribution companies need a method for forecasting electrical load to maximize the security, efficiency, and economic utilization of their electrical infrastructure. The necessity of an appropriate model for forecasting the short-term electric power load provides the information required for the system's routine process management and unit commitment. The STLF has many notable merits, including reduction of operational costs, maintains the efficiency of energy markets, and provide a deeper understanding of the monitored system's dynamics. The STLF indicates the anticipated electric load for a time period ranging from a few hours to a few days. This is accomplished by inputting the day's form, hour, temperature, previous day loads, previous week loads and previous 24-hour loads into the proposed algorithm to forecast the short-term load. An Artificial Neural Network is created using the MATLAB2021a Simulation Software to validate the proposed Back Propagation algorithm's efficiency. The Artificial Neural Network is a mathematical method that simulates the human brain's thought processes. The Artificial Neural Network can be built and trained to take previous load data and the weather information as inputs and gives an output of the forecasted load. Thus, there are some missing data in the dataset that will surely affect the system’s accuracy. Therefore, the forecasting accuracy was evaluated by calculating different error metrics such as the MAPE, the MAE, the APE, the Daily Peak error, the MSE and the derived RMSE. For the proposed algorithm, the range of some hourly load forecasting error metrics lies between 1934378.64MW2 and 579905.75MW2 for the MSE, 2.97% and 6.17% for the Daily Peak error, and 3.15% and 6.54% for the MAPE. On the other hand, the overall MAPE of the proposed system is 5.9% error, while the compared multiple linear regression model gives an overall MAPE of 10.43% error. Therefore, the proposed model has least error than the MLRM. The proposed back propagation algorithm results demonstrate the method's superior performance and demonstrate that it can be used in realistic systems for forecasting short-term electricity load. 2022 Thesis NonPeerReviewed application/pdf en http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/102772/1/YakubHusseinMohamedMSKE2022.pdf.pdf Mohamed, Yakub Hussein (2022) Electricity load forecasting for power system planning and operation by using artificial neural network. Masters thesis, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. http://dms.library.utm.my:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/vital:149929
institution Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
building UTM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
content_source UTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.utm.my/
language English
topic TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
spellingShingle TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Mohamed, Yakub Hussein
Electricity load forecasting for power system planning and operation by using artificial neural network
description The electrical power system performance is obtained when generation keeps pace with demand. The generation, transmission, and distribution companies need a method for forecasting electrical load to maximize the security, efficiency, and economic utilization of their electrical infrastructure. The necessity of an appropriate model for forecasting the short-term electric power load provides the information required for the system's routine process management and unit commitment. The STLF has many notable merits, including reduction of operational costs, maintains the efficiency of energy markets, and provide a deeper understanding of the monitored system's dynamics. The STLF indicates the anticipated electric load for a time period ranging from a few hours to a few days. This is accomplished by inputting the day's form, hour, temperature, previous day loads, previous week loads and previous 24-hour loads into the proposed algorithm to forecast the short-term load. An Artificial Neural Network is created using the MATLAB2021a Simulation Software to validate the proposed Back Propagation algorithm's efficiency. The Artificial Neural Network is a mathematical method that simulates the human brain's thought processes. The Artificial Neural Network can be built and trained to take previous load data and the weather information as inputs and gives an output of the forecasted load. Thus, there are some missing data in the dataset that will surely affect the system’s accuracy. Therefore, the forecasting accuracy was evaluated by calculating different error metrics such as the MAPE, the MAE, the APE, the Daily Peak error, the MSE and the derived RMSE. For the proposed algorithm, the range of some hourly load forecasting error metrics lies between 1934378.64MW2 and 579905.75MW2 for the MSE, 2.97% and 6.17% for the Daily Peak error, and 3.15% and 6.54% for the MAPE. On the other hand, the overall MAPE of the proposed system is 5.9% error, while the compared multiple linear regression model gives an overall MAPE of 10.43% error. Therefore, the proposed model has least error than the MLRM. The proposed back propagation algorithm results demonstrate the method's superior performance and demonstrate that it can be used in realistic systems for forecasting short-term electricity load.
format Thesis
author Mohamed, Yakub Hussein
author_facet Mohamed, Yakub Hussein
author_sort Mohamed, Yakub Hussein
title Electricity load forecasting for power system planning and operation by using artificial neural network
title_short Electricity load forecasting for power system planning and operation by using artificial neural network
title_full Electricity load forecasting for power system planning and operation by using artificial neural network
title_fullStr Electricity load forecasting for power system planning and operation by using artificial neural network
title_full_unstemmed Electricity load forecasting for power system planning and operation by using artificial neural network
title_sort electricity load forecasting for power system planning and operation by using artificial neural network
publishDate 2022
url http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/102772/1/YakubHusseinMohamedMSKE2022.pdf.pdf
http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/102772/
http://dms.library.utm.my:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/vital:149929
_version_ 1778160779259805696
score 13.211869

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