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Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19’s influence on the UK economy: A data analysis

The economic landscape of the United Kingdom has been significantly shaped by the intertwined issues of Brexit, COVID-19, and their interconnected impacts. Despite the country’s robust and diverse economy, the disruptions caused by Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic have created uncertainty and upheav...

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Main Authors: Raghav Gupta, Raghav Gupta, Md. Mahadi Hasan, Md. Mahadi Hasan, Syed Zahurul Islam, Syed Zahurul Islam, Tahmina Yasmin, Tahmina Yasmin, Jasim UddinI, Jasim UddinI
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: 2023
Subjects:
T Technology (General)
Online Access:http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/9654/1/J16199_b0966e6893d4c3558c6b9de532fe1d85.pdf
http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/9654/
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287342
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spelling my.uthm.eprints.96542023-08-16T07:11:08Z http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/9654/ Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19’s influence on the UK economy: A data analysis Raghav Gupta, Raghav Gupta Md. Mahadi Hasan, Md. Mahadi Hasan Syed Zahurul Islam, Syed Zahurul Islam Tahmina Yasmin, Tahmina Yasmin Jasim UddinI, Jasim UddinI T Technology (General) The economic landscape of the United Kingdom has been significantly shaped by the intertwined issues of Brexit, COVID-19, and their interconnected impacts. Despite the country’s robust and diverse economy, the disruptions caused by Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic have created uncertainty and upheaval for both businesses and individuals. Recognizing the magnitude of these challenges, academic literature has directed its attention toward conducting immediate research in this crucial area. This study sets out to investigate key economic factors that have influenced various sectors of the UK economy and have broader economic implications within the context of Brexit and COVID-19. The factors under scrutiny include the unemployment rate, GDP index, earnings, and trade. To accomplish this, a range of data analysis tools and techniques were employed, including the Box-Jenkins method, neural network modeling, Google Trend analysis, and Twitter-sentiment analysis. The analysis encompassed different periods: pre-Brexit (2011-2016), Brexit (2016-2020), the COVID-19 period, and post-Brexit (2020-2021). The findings of the analysis offer intriguing insights spanning the past decade. For instance, the unemployment rate displayed adownward trend until 2020 but experienced a spike in 2021, persisting for a six-month period. Meanwhile, total earnings per week exhibited a gradual increase over time, and the GDP index demonstrated an upward trajectory until 2020 but declined during the COVID-19 period. Notably, trade experienced the most significant decline following both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the impact of these events exhibited variations across the UK’s four regions and twelve industries. Wales and Northern Ireland emerged as the regions most affected by Brexit and COVID-19, with industries such as accommodation, construction, and wholesale trade particularly impacted in terms of earnings and employment levels. Conversely, industries such as finance, science, and health demonstrated an increased contribution to the UK’s total GDP in the post-Brexit period, indicating some positive outcomes. It is worth highlighting that the impact of these economic factors was more pronounced on men than on women. Among all the variables analyzed, trade suffered the most severe consequences in the UK. By early 2021, the macroeconomic situation in the country was characterized by a simple dynamic: economic demand rebounded at a faster 2023 Article PeerReviewed text en http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/9654/1/J16199_b0966e6893d4c3558c6b9de532fe1d85.pdf Raghav Gupta, Raghav Gupta and Md. Mahadi Hasan, Md. Mahadi Hasan and Syed Zahurul Islam, Syed Zahurul Islam and Tahmina Yasmin, Tahmina Yasmin and Jasim UddinI, Jasim UddinI (2023) Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19’s influence on the UK economy: A data analysis. PLOS ONE. pp. 1-33. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287342
institution Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
building UTHM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
content_source UTHM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/
language English
topic T Technology (General)
spellingShingle T Technology (General)
Raghav Gupta, Raghav Gupta
Md. Mahadi Hasan, Md. Mahadi Hasan
Syed Zahurul Islam, Syed Zahurul Islam
Tahmina Yasmin, Tahmina Yasmin
Jasim UddinI, Jasim UddinI
Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19’s influence on the UK economy: A data analysis
description The economic landscape of the United Kingdom has been significantly shaped by the intertwined issues of Brexit, COVID-19, and their interconnected impacts. Despite the country’s robust and diverse economy, the disruptions caused by Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic have created uncertainty and upheaval for both businesses and individuals. Recognizing the magnitude of these challenges, academic literature has directed its attention toward conducting immediate research in this crucial area. This study sets out to investigate key economic factors that have influenced various sectors of the UK economy and have broader economic implications within the context of Brexit and COVID-19. The factors under scrutiny include the unemployment rate, GDP index, earnings, and trade. To accomplish this, a range of data analysis tools and techniques were employed, including the Box-Jenkins method, neural network modeling, Google Trend analysis, and Twitter-sentiment analysis. The analysis encompassed different periods: pre-Brexit (2011-2016), Brexit (2016-2020), the COVID-19 period, and post-Brexit (2020-2021). The findings of the analysis offer intriguing insights spanning the past decade. For instance, the unemployment rate displayed adownward trend until 2020 but experienced a spike in 2021, persisting for a six-month period. Meanwhile, total earnings per week exhibited a gradual increase over time, and the GDP index demonstrated an upward trajectory until 2020 but declined during the COVID-19 period. Notably, trade experienced the most significant decline following both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the impact of these events exhibited variations across the UK’s four regions and twelve industries. Wales and Northern Ireland emerged as the regions most affected by Brexit and COVID-19, with industries such as accommodation, construction, and wholesale trade particularly impacted in terms of earnings and employment levels. Conversely, industries such as finance, science, and health demonstrated an increased contribution to the UK’s total GDP in the post-Brexit period, indicating some positive outcomes. It is worth highlighting that the impact of these economic factors was more pronounced on men than on women. Among all the variables analyzed, trade suffered the most severe consequences in the UK. By early 2021, the macroeconomic situation in the country was characterized by a simple dynamic: economic demand rebounded at a faster
format Article
author Raghav Gupta, Raghav Gupta
Md. Mahadi Hasan, Md. Mahadi Hasan
Syed Zahurul Islam, Syed Zahurul Islam
Tahmina Yasmin, Tahmina Yasmin
Jasim UddinI, Jasim UddinI
author_facet Raghav Gupta, Raghav Gupta
Md. Mahadi Hasan, Md. Mahadi Hasan
Syed Zahurul Islam, Syed Zahurul Islam
Tahmina Yasmin, Tahmina Yasmin
Jasim UddinI, Jasim UddinI
author_sort Raghav Gupta, Raghav Gupta
title Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19’s influence on the UK economy: A data analysis
title_short Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19’s influence on the UK economy: A data analysis
title_full Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19’s influence on the UK economy: A data analysis
title_fullStr Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19’s influence on the UK economy: A data analysis
title_full_unstemmed Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19’s influence on the UK economy: A data analysis
title_sort evaluating the brexit and covid-19’s influence on the uk economy: a data analysis
publishDate 2023
url http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/9654/1/J16199_b0966e6893d4c3558c6b9de532fe1d85.pdf
http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/9654/
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287342
_version_ 1775624951932387328
score 13.211869

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