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Applying the SEIR model in forecasting the COVID-19 trend in Malaysia: a preliminary study

On March 18, 2020 the Malaysian government implemented a 14-day Movement Control Order (MCO) as part of the mitigation plan in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in the country. The MCO aims to limit the contact rates among the population and hence prevent the surge of infected individuals. However,...

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Main Authors: Mahmud, Aidalina, Lim, Poh Ying
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Yale University 2020
Online Access:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87918/1/ABSTRACT.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87918/
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20065607v1
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spelling my.upm.eprints.879182022-06-03T05:19:12Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87918/ Applying the SEIR model in forecasting the COVID-19 trend in Malaysia: a preliminary study Mahmud, Aidalina Lim, Poh Ying On March 18, 2020 the Malaysian government implemented a 14-day Movement Control Order (MCO) as part of the mitigation plan in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in the country. The MCO aims to limit the contact rates among the population and hence prevent the surge of infected individuals. However, the trend of the epidemic before and after the MCO was not apparent. By applying the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed (SEIR) mathematical model, we aimed to forecast the trend of COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia using data from March 17 to 27, 2020. Based on several predetermined assumptions, the results of the analyses showed that after the implementation of the 14-day MCO from March 18 to 31, 2020, it is forecasted that the epidemic in Malaysia will peak approximately in the end of April 2020 and will subside by about the first week of July 2020. The MCO will “flatten the epidemic curve” but will prolong the duration of the epidemic. Decision to extend the duration of the MCO should depend on the consideration of socioeconomic factors as well. Yale University 2020 Article NonPeerReviewed text en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87918/1/ABSTRACT.pdf Mahmud, Aidalina and Lim, Poh Ying (2020) Applying the SEIR model in forecasting the COVID-19 trend in Malaysia: a preliminary study. medRxiv. pp. 1-28. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20065607v1 10.1101/2020.04.14.20065607
institution Universiti Putra Malaysia
building UPM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Putra Malaysia
content_source UPM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://psasir.upm.edu.my/
language English
description On March 18, 2020 the Malaysian government implemented a 14-day Movement Control Order (MCO) as part of the mitigation plan in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in the country. The MCO aims to limit the contact rates among the population and hence prevent the surge of infected individuals. However, the trend of the epidemic before and after the MCO was not apparent. By applying the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed (SEIR) mathematical model, we aimed to forecast the trend of COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia using data from March 17 to 27, 2020. Based on several predetermined assumptions, the results of the analyses showed that after the implementation of the 14-day MCO from March 18 to 31, 2020, it is forecasted that the epidemic in Malaysia will peak approximately in the end of April 2020 and will subside by about the first week of July 2020. The MCO will “flatten the epidemic curve” but will prolong the duration of the epidemic. Decision to extend the duration of the MCO should depend on the consideration of socioeconomic factors as well.
format Article
author Mahmud, Aidalina
Lim, Poh Ying
spellingShingle Mahmud, Aidalina
Lim, Poh Ying
Applying the SEIR model in forecasting the COVID-19 trend in Malaysia: a preliminary study
author_facet Mahmud, Aidalina
Lim, Poh Ying
author_sort Mahmud, Aidalina
title Applying the SEIR model in forecasting the COVID-19 trend in Malaysia: a preliminary study
title_short Applying the SEIR model in forecasting the COVID-19 trend in Malaysia: a preliminary study
title_full Applying the SEIR model in forecasting the COVID-19 trend in Malaysia: a preliminary study
title_fullStr Applying the SEIR model in forecasting the COVID-19 trend in Malaysia: a preliminary study
title_full_unstemmed Applying the SEIR model in forecasting the COVID-19 trend in Malaysia: a preliminary study
title_sort applying the seir model in forecasting the covid-19 trend in malaysia: a preliminary study
publisher Yale University
publishDate 2020
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87918/1/ABSTRACT.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87918/
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20065607v1
_version_ 1735388293709692928
score 13.211869

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