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Projection of temperature in relation to cardiovascular disease using bias correction method

Climate and weather have significant influences on human health. Climate change together with natural phenomena and human activities have the tendency to impact the environment and debilitates human well-being in various ways. Extreme temperature, which is often associated with climate change, has s...

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Main Authors: Mohd Esa, Aina Izzati, Abdul Halim, Syafrina, Abas, Norzaida, Chung, Jing Xiang, Faisal Mohd, Mohd Syazwan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2020
Online Access:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87332/1/Projection%20of%20temperature%20in%20relation%20to%20cardiovascular.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87332/
https://www.ukm.my/jqma/jqma16-2/
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spelling my.upm.eprints.873322022-09-05T04:17:49Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87332/ Projection of temperature in relation to cardiovascular disease using bias correction method Mohd Esa, Aina Izzati Abdul Halim, Syafrina Abas, Norzaida Chung, Jing Xiang Faisal Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Climate and weather have significant influences on human health. Climate change together with natural phenomena and human activities have the tendency to impact the environment and debilitates human well-being in various ways. Extreme temperature, which is often associated with climate change, has some negative implications on human health, potentially resulting in diseases such as cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study is to analyze the impacts of temperature projection on the mortality rates of cardiovascular disease based on daily average temperature projection using bias correction method. Downscaling approach can be used to downscale the global climate model outputs that are available at coarse resolution. However, to study the impact of climate change need meteorological data or information at finer resolution. In this study, statistical downscaling is used to downscale the GCM’s temperature to local scale’s temperature. The observed daily mean temperature data in 5 years (1970- 1974), the historical GCM data (1976-1980) and the projection data (2076-2080) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. However, the global climate model outputs produce biases when applied due to its coarse estimate, hence lead to erroneous results. Thus, bias correction method was used to correct the biases in global climate model outputs to project the future of extreme temperature, and eventually calculate the mortality rate of the cardiovascular diseases. The mortality rate of the cardiovascular disease is calculated by using attributable daily deaths formula. Results revealed that quantile mapping technique is able to capture the variability in global climate model as well as quantifying the biases. The projected trend of heat-related deaths under RCP4.5 is lower than the deaths under RCP8.5. SYAFRINA BINTI ABDUL HALIM// AINA IZZATI BINTI MOHD ESA/ Jing Xiang Chung,Mohd Syazwan Faisal Mohd Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2020 Article PeerReviewed text en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87332/1/Projection%20of%20temperature%20in%20relation%20to%20cardiovascular.pdf Mohd Esa, Aina Izzati and Abdul Halim, Syafrina and Abas, Norzaida and Chung, Jing Xiang and Faisal Mohd, Mohd Syazwan (2020) Projection of temperature in relation to cardiovascular disease using bias correction method. Journal of Quality Measurement and Analysis, 16 (2). 193 - 206. ISSN 2600-8602 https://www.ukm.my/jqma/jqma16-2/
institution Universiti Putra Malaysia
building UPM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Putra Malaysia
content_source UPM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://psasir.upm.edu.my/
language English
description Climate and weather have significant influences on human health. Climate change together with natural phenomena and human activities have the tendency to impact the environment and debilitates human well-being in various ways. Extreme temperature, which is often associated with climate change, has some negative implications on human health, potentially resulting in diseases such as cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study is to analyze the impacts of temperature projection on the mortality rates of cardiovascular disease based on daily average temperature projection using bias correction method. Downscaling approach can be used to downscale the global climate model outputs that are available at coarse resolution. However, to study the impact of climate change need meteorological data or information at finer resolution. In this study, statistical downscaling is used to downscale the GCM’s temperature to local scale’s temperature. The observed daily mean temperature data in 5 years (1970- 1974), the historical GCM data (1976-1980) and the projection data (2076-2080) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. However, the global climate model outputs produce biases when applied due to its coarse estimate, hence lead to erroneous results. Thus, bias correction method was used to correct the biases in global climate model outputs to project the future of extreme temperature, and eventually calculate the mortality rate of the cardiovascular diseases. The mortality rate of the cardiovascular disease is calculated by using attributable daily deaths formula. Results revealed that quantile mapping technique is able to capture the variability in global climate model as well as quantifying the biases. The projected trend of heat-related deaths under RCP4.5 is lower than the deaths under RCP8.5. SYAFRINA BINTI ABDUL HALIM// AINA IZZATI BINTI MOHD ESA/ Jing Xiang Chung,Mohd Syazwan Faisal Mohd
format Article
author Mohd Esa, Aina Izzati
Abdul Halim, Syafrina
Abas, Norzaida
Chung, Jing Xiang
Faisal Mohd, Mohd Syazwan
spellingShingle Mohd Esa, Aina Izzati
Abdul Halim, Syafrina
Abas, Norzaida
Chung, Jing Xiang
Faisal Mohd, Mohd Syazwan
Projection of temperature in relation to cardiovascular disease using bias correction method
author_facet Mohd Esa, Aina Izzati
Abdul Halim, Syafrina
Abas, Norzaida
Chung, Jing Xiang
Faisal Mohd, Mohd Syazwan
author_sort Mohd Esa, Aina Izzati
title Projection of temperature in relation to cardiovascular disease using bias correction method
title_short Projection of temperature in relation to cardiovascular disease using bias correction method
title_full Projection of temperature in relation to cardiovascular disease using bias correction method
title_fullStr Projection of temperature in relation to cardiovascular disease using bias correction method
title_full_unstemmed Projection of temperature in relation to cardiovascular disease using bias correction method
title_sort projection of temperature in relation to cardiovascular disease using bias correction method
publisher Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
publishDate 2020
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87332/1/Projection%20of%20temperature%20in%20relation%20to%20cardiovascular.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87332/
https://www.ukm.my/jqma/jqma16-2/
_version_ 1743108574039506944
score 13.211869

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