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Predictive mathematical modelling of the total number of COVID-19 cases for the United States

The current global COVID-19 pandemic is causing a lot of deaths and economic losses worldwide. The modelling of future death and cases is a very important aspect of managing the severity of the pandemic. In this paper, we demonstrated potential use of various growth models like modified Gompertz, Vo...

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Main Authors: Yakasai, Hafeez Muhammad, Abd Shukor, Mohd Yunus
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Hibiscus 2020
Online Access:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87245/1/Predictive%20mathematical%20modelling%20of%20the%20total%20number%20of%20COVID.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87245/
https://journal.hibiscuspublisher.com/index.php/BSTR/article/view/510
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spelling my.upm.eprints.872452022-01-20T08:51:31Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87245/ Predictive mathematical modelling of the total number of COVID-19 cases for the United States Yakasai, Hafeez Muhammad Abd Shukor, Mohd Yunus The current global COVID-19 pandemic is causing a lot of deaths and economic losses worldwide. The modelling of future death and cases is a very important aspect of managing the severity of the pandemic. In this paper, we demonstrated potential use of various growth models like modified Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy, Baranyi-Roberts, modified Logistics, Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF), modified Richards and Huang in modeling the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in the form of total number of infection cases of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States as at 20th July 2020. The Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) model showed best fitting to the data set with least RMSE and AICc and the highest adjusted R2 values. The values for Accuracy and Bias Factors were closest to 1.0. Despite this, further statistical diagnosis of the data showed nonnormality with the residuals failing the runs and homoscedasticity tests. Interestingly, this was addressed by remodeling the data from day 132 onwards using the MMF model, which results in improving the statistical diagnosis. The fitting coefficients obtained include maximum growth rate (logmm) of 0.03 (95% CI 0.023 - 0.039), curve constant (d) that affects the inflection point of 1.42 (95% CI 1.304 - 1.540), lower asymptote value (b) of 6.454 (95% CI 6.451 - 6.456) and maximal total number of cases (ymax) of 7,906,786 (95% CI 6,652,732 - 10,839,269). The MMF model predicted that by 20th of August 2020 the total number of cases in the United States will be 5,560,168 (95% CI of 5,295,337 - 5,838,243), while the Fig. will rise to 6,366,506 (95% CI of 5,791,751 - 6,998,298) by 20th of September 2020. The predictive potential of the utilized model makes it a powerful tool for epidemiologist monitoring the severity of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in the United States in the near future. Although, predictions from this model as with any other model, need to be taken with caution due to unpredictable nature of COVID-19 situation locally and globally. Hibiscus 2020-07-31 Article PeerReviewed text en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87245/1/Predictive%20mathematical%20modelling%20of%20the%20total%20number%20of%20COVID.pdf Yakasai, Hafeez Muhammad and Abd Shukor, Mohd Yunus (2020) Predictive mathematical modelling of the total number of COVID-19 cases for the United States. Bioremediation Science and Technology Research, 8 (1). pp. 11-16. ISSN 2289-5892 https://journal.hibiscuspublisher.com/index.php/BSTR/article/view/510 10.54987/bstr.v8i1.510
institution Universiti Putra Malaysia
building UPM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Putra Malaysia
content_source UPM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://psasir.upm.edu.my/
language English
description The current global COVID-19 pandemic is causing a lot of deaths and economic losses worldwide. The modelling of future death and cases is a very important aspect of managing the severity of the pandemic. In this paper, we demonstrated potential use of various growth models like modified Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy, Baranyi-Roberts, modified Logistics, Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF), modified Richards and Huang in modeling the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in the form of total number of infection cases of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States as at 20th July 2020. The Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) model showed best fitting to the data set with least RMSE and AICc and the highest adjusted R2 values. The values for Accuracy and Bias Factors were closest to 1.0. Despite this, further statistical diagnosis of the data showed nonnormality with the residuals failing the runs and homoscedasticity tests. Interestingly, this was addressed by remodeling the data from day 132 onwards using the MMF model, which results in improving the statistical diagnosis. The fitting coefficients obtained include maximum growth rate (logmm) of 0.03 (95% CI 0.023 - 0.039), curve constant (d) that affects the inflection point of 1.42 (95% CI 1.304 - 1.540), lower asymptote value (b) of 6.454 (95% CI 6.451 - 6.456) and maximal total number of cases (ymax) of 7,906,786 (95% CI 6,652,732 - 10,839,269). The MMF model predicted that by 20th of August 2020 the total number of cases in the United States will be 5,560,168 (95% CI of 5,295,337 - 5,838,243), while the Fig. will rise to 6,366,506 (95% CI of 5,791,751 - 6,998,298) by 20th of September 2020. The predictive potential of the utilized model makes it a powerful tool for epidemiologist monitoring the severity of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in the United States in the near future. Although, predictions from this model as with any other model, need to be taken with caution due to unpredictable nature of COVID-19 situation locally and globally.
format Article
author Yakasai, Hafeez Muhammad
Abd Shukor, Mohd Yunus
spellingShingle Yakasai, Hafeez Muhammad
Abd Shukor, Mohd Yunus
Predictive mathematical modelling of the total number of COVID-19 cases for the United States
author_facet Yakasai, Hafeez Muhammad
Abd Shukor, Mohd Yunus
author_sort Yakasai, Hafeez Muhammad
title Predictive mathematical modelling of the total number of COVID-19 cases for the United States
title_short Predictive mathematical modelling of the total number of COVID-19 cases for the United States
title_full Predictive mathematical modelling of the total number of COVID-19 cases for the United States
title_fullStr Predictive mathematical modelling of the total number of COVID-19 cases for the United States
title_full_unstemmed Predictive mathematical modelling of the total number of COVID-19 cases for the United States
title_sort predictive mathematical modelling of the total number of covid-19 cases for the united states
publisher Hibiscus
publishDate 2020
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87245/1/Predictive%20mathematical%20modelling%20of%20the%20total%20number%20of%20COVID.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/87245/
https://journal.hibiscuspublisher.com/index.php/BSTR/article/view/510
_version_ 1724075499247894528
score 13.211869

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