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Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries

This study attempts to find the best model to forecast international tourism demand using a series of key macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries. Generally, we find that generalized Poisson regression model is the best one for estimating long-run international tourism demand. In addition, we fin...

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Main Authors: Karimi, Asrin, Faroughi, Pouya, Abdul Rahim, Khalid
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Science Publications 2015
Online Access:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/1/ajassp.2015.479.486
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/
https://thescipub.com/abstract/10.3844/ajassp.2015.479.486
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spelling my.upm.eprints.710102019-09-10T06:14:51Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/ Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries Karimi, Asrin Faroughi, Pouya Abdul Rahim, Khalid This study attempts to find the best model to forecast international tourism demand using a series of key macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries. Generally, we find that generalized Poisson regression model is the best one for estimating long-run international tourism demand. In addition, we find that inflation and real exchange rate have negative relationship with international tourism demand. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and openness of trade have positive relationship with international tourism demand. Cointegration test result shows that there is a long-run relationship between variables. Science Publications 2015 Article PeerReviewed text en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/1/ajassp.2015.479.486 Karimi, Asrin and Faroughi, Pouya and Abdul Rahim, Khalid (2015) Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 12 (7). pp. 479-486. ISSN 1546-9239; ESSN: 1554-3641 https://thescipub.com/abstract/10.3844/ajassp.2015.479.486 10.3844/ajassp.2015.479.486
institution Universiti Putra Malaysia
building UPM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Putra Malaysia
content_source UPM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://psasir.upm.edu.my/
language English
description This study attempts to find the best model to forecast international tourism demand using a series of key macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries. Generally, we find that generalized Poisson regression model is the best one for estimating long-run international tourism demand. In addition, we find that inflation and real exchange rate have negative relationship with international tourism demand. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and openness of trade have positive relationship with international tourism demand. Cointegration test result shows that there is a long-run relationship between variables.
format Article
author Karimi, Asrin
Faroughi, Pouya
Abdul Rahim, Khalid
spellingShingle Karimi, Asrin
Faroughi, Pouya
Abdul Rahim, Khalid
Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries
author_facet Karimi, Asrin
Faroughi, Pouya
Abdul Rahim, Khalid
author_sort Karimi, Asrin
title Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries
title_short Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries
title_full Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries
title_fullStr Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries
title_full_unstemmed Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries
title_sort modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in asean countries
publisher Science Publications
publishDate 2015
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/1/ajassp.2015.479.486
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/
https://thescipub.com/abstract/10.3844/ajassp.2015.479.486
_version_ 1646008973830127616
score 13.211869

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