Estimation of transformers Health Index based on the Markov Chain

This paper presents a study on the application of the Markov Model (MM) to determine the transformer population states based on Health Index (HI). In total, 3195 oil samples from 373 transformers ranging in age from 1 to 25 years were analyzed. First, the HI of transformers was computed based on yea...

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Main Authors: Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil, Azis, Norhafiz, Ab Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin, Jasni, Jasronita, Hairi, Mohd Hendra, Talib, Mohd Aizam
格式: Article
語言:English
出版: MDPI 2017
在線閱讀:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/61767/1/Estimation%20of%20transformers%20Health%20Index%20based%20on.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/61767/
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1824
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spelling my.upm.eprints.617672019-01-23T03:55:34Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/61767/ Estimation of transformers Health Index based on the Markov Chain Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil Azis, Norhafiz Ab Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin Jasni, Jasronita Hairi, Mohd Hendra Talib, Mohd Aizam This paper presents a study on the application of the Markov Model (MM) to determine the transformer population states based on Health Index (HI). In total, 3195 oil samples from 373 transformers ranging in age from 1 to 25 years were analyzed. First, the HI of transformers was computed based on yearly individual oil condition monitoring data that consisted of oil quality, dissolved gases, and furanic compounds. Next, the average HI for each age was computed and the transition probabilities were obtained based on a nonlinear optimization technique. Finally, the future deterioration performance curve of the transformers was determined based on the MM chain algorithm. It was found that the MM can be used to predict the future transformers condition states. The chi-squared goodness-of-fit analysis revealed that the predicted HI for the transformer population obtained based on MM agrees with the average computed HI along the years, and the average error is 3.59%. MDPI 2017 Article PeerReviewed text en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/61767/1/Estimation%20of%20transformers%20Health%20Index%20based%20on.pdf Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil and Azis, Norhafiz and Ab Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin and Jasni, Jasronita and Hairi, Mohd Hendra and Talib, Mohd Aizam (2017) Estimation of transformers Health Index based on the Markov Chain. Energies, 10 (11). pp. 1-11. ISSN 1996-1073 https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1824 10.3390/en10111824
institution Universiti Putra Malaysia
building UPM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Putra Malaysia
content_source UPM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://psasir.upm.edu.my/
language English
description This paper presents a study on the application of the Markov Model (MM) to determine the transformer population states based on Health Index (HI). In total, 3195 oil samples from 373 transformers ranging in age from 1 to 25 years were analyzed. First, the HI of transformers was computed based on yearly individual oil condition monitoring data that consisted of oil quality, dissolved gases, and furanic compounds. Next, the average HI for each age was computed and the transition probabilities were obtained based on a nonlinear optimization technique. Finally, the future deterioration performance curve of the transformers was determined based on the MM chain algorithm. It was found that the MM can be used to predict the future transformers condition states. The chi-squared goodness-of-fit analysis revealed that the predicted HI for the transformer population obtained based on MM agrees with the average computed HI along the years, and the average error is 3.59%.
format Article
author Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil
Azis, Norhafiz
Ab Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin
Jasni, Jasronita
Hairi, Mohd Hendra
Talib, Mohd Aizam
spellingShingle Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil
Azis, Norhafiz
Ab Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin
Jasni, Jasronita
Hairi, Mohd Hendra
Talib, Mohd Aizam
Estimation of transformers Health Index based on the Markov Chain
author_facet Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil
Azis, Norhafiz
Ab Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin
Jasni, Jasronita
Hairi, Mohd Hendra
Talib, Mohd Aizam
author_sort Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil
title Estimation of transformers Health Index based on the Markov Chain
title_short Estimation of transformers Health Index based on the Markov Chain
title_full Estimation of transformers Health Index based on the Markov Chain
title_fullStr Estimation of transformers Health Index based on the Markov Chain
title_full_unstemmed Estimation of transformers Health Index based on the Markov Chain
title_sort estimation of transformers health index based on the markov chain
publisher MDPI
publishDate 2017
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/61767/1/Estimation%20of%20transformers%20Health%20Index%20based%20on.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/61767/
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1824
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score 13.251813