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Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load

Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays. These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than o...

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Main Authors: Abd. Razak, Fadhilah, Shitan, Mahendran, Hashim, Amir Hisham, Zainal Abidin, Izham
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: College of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of the Punjab 2014
Online Access:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/1/Dynamic%20regression%20intervention%20modeling%20for%20the%20Malaysian%20daily%20load.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/
http://www.pjsor.com/index.php/pjsor/article/view/600
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spelling my.upm.eprints.371742015-08-27T06:58:39Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/ Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load Abd. Razak, Fadhilah Shitan, Mahendran Hashim, Amir Hisham Zainal Abidin, Izham Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays. These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than other factors. If these effects can be estimated and removed, the behavior of the series could be better viewed. Thus, the aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting errors by using a dynamic regression model with intervention analysis. Based on the linear transfer function method, a daily load model consists of either peak or average is developed. The developed model outperformed the seasonal ARIMA model in estimating the fixed and moving holidays’ effects and achieved a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in load forecast. College of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of the Punjab 2014 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/1/Dynamic%20regression%20intervention%20modeling%20for%20the%20Malaysian%20daily%20load.pdf Abd. Razak, Fadhilah and Shitan, Mahendran and Hashim, Amir Hisham and Zainal Abidin, Izham (2014) Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load. Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research, 10 (1). pp. 41-55. ISSN 1816-2711; ESSN: 2220-5810 http://www.pjsor.com/index.php/pjsor/article/view/600
institution Universiti Putra Malaysia
building UPM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Putra Malaysia
content_source UPM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://psasir.upm.edu.my/
language English
description Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays. These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than other factors. If these effects can be estimated and removed, the behavior of the series could be better viewed. Thus, the aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting errors by using a dynamic regression model with intervention analysis. Based on the linear transfer function method, a daily load model consists of either peak or average is developed. The developed model outperformed the seasonal ARIMA model in estimating the fixed and moving holidays’ effects and achieved a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in load forecast.
format Article
author Abd. Razak, Fadhilah
Shitan, Mahendran
Hashim, Amir Hisham
Zainal Abidin, Izham
spellingShingle Abd. Razak, Fadhilah
Shitan, Mahendran
Hashim, Amir Hisham
Zainal Abidin, Izham
Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load
author_facet Abd. Razak, Fadhilah
Shitan, Mahendran
Hashim, Amir Hisham
Zainal Abidin, Izham
author_sort Abd. Razak, Fadhilah
title Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load
title_short Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load
title_full Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load
title_fullStr Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load
title_full_unstemmed Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load
title_sort dynamic regression intervention modeling for the malaysian daily load
publisher College of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of the Punjab
publishDate 2014
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/1/Dynamic%20regression%20intervention%20modeling%20for%20the%20Malaysian%20daily%20load.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/
http://www.pjsor.com/index.php/pjsor/article/view/600
_version_ 1643831922029232128
score 13.211869

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