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Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis.

In this study we analyse tuberculosis (TB) data from Jabatan Kesihatan Negeri Terengganu (2008) by applying linear trend, quadratic trend, simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing and Holt’s trend corrected exponential smoothing. Accuracy of these time series approaches are measured by c...

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Main Authors: Kilicman, Adem, Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah
Format: Article
Language:English
English
Published: Science Society of Thailand 2009
Online Access:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/7/Tuberculosis%20in%20the%20Terengganu%20region.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/
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spelling my.upm.eprints.174882015-09-28T03:25:10Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/ Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis. Kilicman, Adem Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah In this study we analyse tuberculosis (TB) data from Jabatan Kesihatan Negeri Terengganu (2008) by applying linear trend, quadratic trend, simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing and Holt’s trend corrected exponential smoothing. Accuracy of these time series approaches are measured by computing the variance between the extrapolation model and the actual data. The study shows that Holt’s trend corrected exponential smoothing is the best forecasting model, followed by the quadratic trend model. The results also show that people aged between 35–44 years old,male, Malay, unemployed or have an income lower than RM 1000 per month are in a high risk group to be infected by TB.We also forecast TB cases for 2009 until 2013 and the result suggests that the numbers of TB cases are expected to increase. Science Society of Thailand 2009 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/7/Tuberculosis%20in%20the%20Terengganu%20region.pdf Kilicman, Adem and Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah (2009) Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis. ScienceAsia, 35 (4). pp. 392-395. ISSN 1513-1874 10.2306/scienceasia1513-1874.2009.35.392 English
institution Universiti Putra Malaysia
building UPM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Putra Malaysia
content_source UPM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://psasir.upm.edu.my/
language English
English
description In this study we analyse tuberculosis (TB) data from Jabatan Kesihatan Negeri Terengganu (2008) by applying linear trend, quadratic trend, simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing and Holt’s trend corrected exponential smoothing. Accuracy of these time series approaches are measured by computing the variance between the extrapolation model and the actual data. The study shows that Holt’s trend corrected exponential smoothing is the best forecasting model, followed by the quadratic trend model. The results also show that people aged between 35–44 years old,male, Malay, unemployed or have an income lower than RM 1000 per month are in a high risk group to be infected by TB.We also forecast TB cases for 2009 until 2013 and the result suggests that the numbers of TB cases are expected to increase.
format Article
author Kilicman, Adem
Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah
spellingShingle Kilicman, Adem
Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah
Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis.
author_facet Kilicman, Adem
Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah
author_sort Kilicman, Adem
title Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis.
title_short Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis.
title_full Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis.
title_fullStr Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis.
title_full_unstemmed Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis.
title_sort tuberculosis in the terengganu region: forecast and data analysis.
publisher Science Society of Thailand
publishDate 2009
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/7/Tuberculosis%20in%20the%20Terengganu%20region.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/
_version_ 1643826532707205120
score 13.244413

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