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Load forecasting using time series models

Load forecasting is a process of predicting the future load demands. It is important for power system planners and demand controllers in ensuring that there would be enough generation to cope with the increasing demand. Accurate model for load forecasting can lead to a better budget planning, mainte...

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Main Authors: Abd. Razak, Fadhilah, Shitan, Mahendran, Hashim, Amir Hisham, Zainal Abidin, Izham
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2009
Online Access:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/15477/1/Load%20forecasting%20using%20time%20series%20models.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/15477/
http://www.ukm.my/jkukm/volume-212009/
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spelling my.upm.eprints.154772019-10-04T08:22:23Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/15477/ Load forecasting using time series models Abd. Razak, Fadhilah Shitan, Mahendran Hashim, Amir Hisham Zainal Abidin, Izham Load forecasting is a process of predicting the future load demands. It is important for power system planners and demand controllers in ensuring that there would be enough generation to cope with the increasing demand. Accurate model for load forecasting can lead to a better budget planning, maintenance scheduling and fuel management. This paper presents an attempt to forecast the maximum demand of electricity by finding an appropriate time series model. The methods considered in this study include the Naïve method, Exponential smoothing, Seasonal Holt-Winters, ARMA, ARAR algorithm, and Regression with ARMA Errors. The performance of these different methods was evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Relative Percentage Error (MARPE). Based on these three criteria the pure auto regressive model with an order 2, or AR (2) under ARMA family emerged as the best model for forecasting electricity demand. Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2009 Article PeerReviewed text en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/15477/1/Load%20forecasting%20using%20time%20series%20models.pdf Abd. Razak, Fadhilah and Shitan, Mahendran and Hashim, Amir Hisham and Zainal Abidin, Izham (2009) Load forecasting using time series models. Jurnal Kejuruteraan, 21. pp. 53-62. ISSN 0128-0198; ESSN: 2289-7526 http://www.ukm.my/jkukm/volume-212009/ 10.17576/jkukm-2009-21-06
institution Universiti Putra Malaysia
building UPM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Putra Malaysia
content_source UPM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://psasir.upm.edu.my/
language English
description Load forecasting is a process of predicting the future load demands. It is important for power system planners and demand controllers in ensuring that there would be enough generation to cope with the increasing demand. Accurate model for load forecasting can lead to a better budget planning, maintenance scheduling and fuel management. This paper presents an attempt to forecast the maximum demand of electricity by finding an appropriate time series model. The methods considered in this study include the Naïve method, Exponential smoothing, Seasonal Holt-Winters, ARMA, ARAR algorithm, and Regression with ARMA Errors. The performance of these different methods was evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Relative Percentage Error (MARPE). Based on these three criteria the pure auto regressive model with an order 2, or AR (2) under ARMA family emerged as the best model for forecasting electricity demand.
format Article
author Abd. Razak, Fadhilah
Shitan, Mahendran
Hashim, Amir Hisham
Zainal Abidin, Izham
spellingShingle Abd. Razak, Fadhilah
Shitan, Mahendran
Hashim, Amir Hisham
Zainal Abidin, Izham
Load forecasting using time series models
author_facet Abd. Razak, Fadhilah
Shitan, Mahendran
Hashim, Amir Hisham
Zainal Abidin, Izham
author_sort Abd. Razak, Fadhilah
title Load forecasting using time series models
title_short Load forecasting using time series models
title_full Load forecasting using time series models
title_fullStr Load forecasting using time series models
title_full_unstemmed Load forecasting using time series models
title_sort load forecasting using time series models
publisher Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
publishDate 2009
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/15477/1/Load%20forecasting%20using%20time%20series%20models.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/15477/
http://www.ukm.my/jkukm/volume-212009/
_version_ 1648738069211250688
score 13.211869

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