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Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard.

This study determines a suitable method from the univariate time series models to forecast the export demand of moulding and chipboard volume (m³) from Peninsular Malaysia using the quarterly data from March 1982 to June 2009. Export demand for moulding and chipboard were estimated using univariate...

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Main Authors: Emang, Diana, Shitan, Mahendran, Abd. Ghani, Awang Noor, Mohd. Noor, Khamurudin
Format: Article
Language:English
English
Published: Canadian Center of Science and Education 2010
Online Access:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/14800/1/Forecasting%20with%20univariate%20time%20series%20models.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/14800/
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spelling my.upm.eprints.148002015-09-10T04:26:56Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/14800/ Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard. Emang, Diana Shitan, Mahendran Abd. Ghani, Awang Noor Mohd. Noor, Khamurudin This study determines a suitable method from the univariate time series models to forecast the export demand of moulding and chipboard volume (m³) from Peninsular Malaysia using the quarterly data from March 1982 to June 2009. Export demand for moulding and chipboard were estimated using univariate time series models including the Holt-Winters Seasonal, ARAR algorithms and the seasonal ARIMA models. The seasonal ARIMA (1, 0, 4) X (0, 0, 1, 0)4 model produced the best forecast at the lowest forecast errors of MAPE, MAE and RMSE at 18.83%, 32730.8 and 35282.13, respectively. It forecasts the volume (m³) of moulding and chipboard for export to reach more than 150000 m3, and it is expected to be within range of 100000 to 250000 m3 at 95% confidence level. The forecasts assist in decision making process and facilitate a short-term marketing plan to meet the export demand from international market. Canadian Center of Science and Education 2010 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/14800/1/Forecasting%20with%20univariate%20time%20series%20models.pdf Emang, Diana and Shitan, Mahendran and Abd. Ghani, Awang Noor and Mohd. Noor, Khamurudin (2010) Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard. Journal of Sustainable Development, 3 (3). pp. 157-161. ISSN 1913-9071 English
institution Universiti Putra Malaysia
building UPM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Putra Malaysia
content_source UPM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://psasir.upm.edu.my/
language English
English
description This study determines a suitable method from the univariate time series models to forecast the export demand of moulding and chipboard volume (m³) from Peninsular Malaysia using the quarterly data from March 1982 to June 2009. Export demand for moulding and chipboard were estimated using univariate time series models including the Holt-Winters Seasonal, ARAR algorithms and the seasonal ARIMA models. The seasonal ARIMA (1, 0, 4) X (0, 0, 1, 0)4 model produced the best forecast at the lowest forecast errors of MAPE, MAE and RMSE at 18.83%, 32730.8 and 35282.13, respectively. It forecasts the volume (m³) of moulding and chipboard for export to reach more than 150000 m3, and it is expected to be within range of 100000 to 250000 m3 at 95% confidence level. The forecasts assist in decision making process and facilitate a short-term marketing plan to meet the export demand from international market.
format Article
author Emang, Diana
Shitan, Mahendran
Abd. Ghani, Awang Noor
Mohd. Noor, Khamurudin
spellingShingle Emang, Diana
Shitan, Mahendran
Abd. Ghani, Awang Noor
Mohd. Noor, Khamurudin
Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard.
author_facet Emang, Diana
Shitan, Mahendran
Abd. Ghani, Awang Noor
Mohd. Noor, Khamurudin
author_sort Emang, Diana
title Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard.
title_short Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard.
title_full Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard.
title_fullStr Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard.
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard.
title_sort forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for peninsular malaysia’s moulding and chipboard.
publisher Canadian Center of Science and Education
publishDate 2010
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/14800/1/Forecasting%20with%20univariate%20time%20series%20models.pdf
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/14800/
_version_ 1643825743070756864
score 13.211869

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