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Optimization-based method for estimating the transmission rate of COVID-19 during the lockdown in Malaysia

In this work, the optimization-based method is implemented to investigate the effectiveness of lockdown strategies undertaken to contain the COVID-19 during the first two waves in Malaysia. The well-known Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) epidemiological model was fitted to the actual data of infec...

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Main Authors:	Alsayed, Abdallah, Aqel, Mohammad O. A., Kamil, Raja, Sadir, Hayder, Abuzaiter, Alaa, Alezabi, Kamal Ali, Sari, Hasan
Format:	Article
Published:	Taylor's University 2022
Online Access:	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/102401/ https://jestec.taylors.edu.my/V17Issue4.htm
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id	my.upm.eprints.102401
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spelling	my.upm.eprints.1024012023-08-11T08:16:56Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/102401/ Optimization-based method for estimating the transmission rate of COVID-19 during the lockdown in Malaysia Alsayed, Abdallah Aqel, Mohammad O. A. Kamil, Raja Sadir, Hayder Abuzaiter, Alaa Alezabi, Kamal Ali Sari, Hasan In this work, the optimization-based method is implemented to investigate the effectiveness of lockdown strategies undertaken to contain the COVID-19 during the first two waves in Malaysia. The well-known Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) epidemiological model was fitted to the actual data of infected cases from the official press to closely reflect the observed COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia. The Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) were implemented to determine the daily transmission rate β(t) that fits the SIR model to the actual data. The best fitness value of PSO is mostly stable at approximately 37.5 with the best value of 37.41 at a population size of 1000, whilst the best value for GA slowly decreased to the best value of 47.45 at a population size of 1000. In addition, PSO requires a lower number of iterations to reach the optimum fitness value for the same population size as compared to GA, while GA is too far to reach the convergence. As the removal rate (γ) is a constant value fixed at 0.1, the optimized β(t) values indicate a high basic reproduction number (average R0 = 1.23) obtained before the Movement Control Order (MCO), followed by a considerable decrease to an average R0 value of 1.23 during the MCO. During the Conditional MCO and Recovery MCO, the basic reproduction number was slightly decreased to an average R0 value less than 1. This is an indication of the success of the government to contain the pandemic during the first two waves as the R0 has been kept below than 1. Taylor's University 2022 Article PeerReviewed Alsayed, Abdallah and Aqel, Mohammad O. A. and Kamil, Raja and Sadir, Hayder and Abuzaiter, Alaa and Alezabi, Kamal Ali and Sari, Hasan (2022) Optimization-based method for estimating the transmission rate of COVID-19 during the lockdown in Malaysia. Journal of Engineering Science and Technology, 17 (4). 2287 - 2298. ISSN 1823-4690 https://jestec.taylors.edu.my/V17Issue4.htm
institution	Universiti Putra Malaysia
building	UPM Library
collection	Institutional Repository
continent	Asia
country	Malaysia
content_provider	Universiti Putra Malaysia
content_source	UPM Institutional Repository
url_provider	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/
description	In this work, the optimization-based method is implemented to investigate the effectiveness of lockdown strategies undertaken to contain the COVID-19 during the first two waves in Malaysia. The well-known Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) epidemiological model was fitted to the actual data of infected cases from the official press to closely reflect the observed COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia. The Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) were implemented to determine the daily transmission rate β(t) that fits the SIR model to the actual data. The best fitness value of PSO is mostly stable at approximately 37.5 with the best value of 37.41 at a population size of 1000, whilst the best value for GA slowly decreased to the best value of 47.45 at a population size of 1000. In addition, PSO requires a lower number of iterations to reach the optimum fitness value for the same population size as compared to GA, while GA is too far to reach the convergence. As the removal rate (γ) is a constant value fixed at 0.1, the optimized β(t) values indicate a high basic reproduction number (average R0 = 1.23) obtained before the Movement Control Order (MCO), followed by a considerable decrease to an average R0 value of 1.23 during the MCO. During the Conditional MCO and Recovery MCO, the basic reproduction number was slightly decreased to an average R0 value less than 1. This is an indication of the success of the government to contain the pandemic during the first two waves as the R0 has been kept below than 1.
format	Article
author	Alsayed, Abdallah Aqel, Mohammad O. A. Kamil, Raja Sadir, Hayder Abuzaiter, Alaa Alezabi, Kamal Ali Sari, Hasan
spellingShingle	Alsayed, Abdallah Aqel, Mohammad O. A. Kamil, Raja Sadir, Hayder Abuzaiter, Alaa Alezabi, Kamal Ali Sari, Hasan Optimization-based method for estimating the transmission rate of COVID-19 during the lockdown in Malaysia
author_facet	Alsayed, Abdallah Aqel, Mohammad O. A. Kamil, Raja Sadir, Hayder Abuzaiter, Alaa Alezabi, Kamal Ali Sari, Hasan
author_sort	Alsayed, Abdallah
title	Optimization-based method for estimating the transmission rate of COVID-19 during the lockdown in Malaysia
title_short	Optimization-based method for estimating the transmission rate of COVID-19 during the lockdown in Malaysia
title_full	Optimization-based method for estimating the transmission rate of COVID-19 during the lockdown in Malaysia
title_fullStr	Optimization-based method for estimating the transmission rate of COVID-19 during the lockdown in Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed	Optimization-based method for estimating the transmission rate of COVID-19 during the lockdown in Malaysia
title_sort	optimization-based method for estimating the transmission rate of covid-19 during the lockdown in malaysia
publisher	Taylor's University
publishDate	2022
url	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/102401/ https://jestec.taylors.edu.my/V17Issue4.htm
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score	13.211869

Optimization-based method for estimating the transmission rate of COVID-19 during the lockdown in Malaysia

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