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Forecasting multi-step-ahead reservoir monthly and daily inflow using machine learning models based on different scenarios

Adaptive boosting; Decision making; Forecasting; Fuzzy inference; Fuzzy neural networks; Fuzzy systems; Multilayer neural networks; Multilayers; Reservoirs (water); Water resources; Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference; Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system; Extreme gradient boosting (XG-boost); Gradient...

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Main Authors: Ibrahim K.S.M.H., Huang Y.F., Ahmed A.N., Koo C.H., El-Shafie A.
Other Authors: 57225749816
Format: Article
Published: Springer 2023
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spelling my.uniten.dspace-271312023-05-29T17:39:59Z Forecasting multi-step-ahead reservoir monthly and daily inflow using machine learning models based on different scenarios Ibrahim K.S.M.H. Huang Y.F. Ahmed A.N. Koo C.H. El-Shafie A. 57225749816 55807263900 57214837520 57204843657 16068189400 Adaptive boosting; Decision making; Forecasting; Fuzzy inference; Fuzzy neural networks; Fuzzy systems; Multilayer neural networks; Multilayers; Reservoirs (water); Water resources; Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference; Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system; Extreme gradient boosting (XG-boost); Gradient boosting; Grid search; Grid search optimizer; Hyper-parameter; Inflow forecast; Machine-learning; Multilayer perceptron neural network; Multilayers perceptrons; Neuro-fuzzy inference systems; Perceptron neural networks; Search optimizer; Support vector regression; Support vector regressions; Machine learning Dam reservoir operations are a critical issue for decision-makers in maximizing the use of water resources. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning models (AI & ML) approaches are increasingly popular for reservoir inflow predictions. In this study, the multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XG-Boost), were adopted to forecast reservoir inflows for the monthly and daily timeframes. Results showed that: (1) For the monthly timeframe, all the four models were proficient in obtaining efficient monthly reservoir inflows by scoring at least an R� of 0.5; with the XG-Boost ranked as the best model, followed by the MLPNN, SVR, and lastly ANFIS. (2) the XG-Boost still outperforms all other models for forecasting daily inflow; but however, with reduced performance. The models were still ranked in the same order, with the ANFIS showing very poor performance in scenario-2, scenario-3, and scenario-4. (3) For daily inflows, the best scenarios are scenario-5, scenario-6, scenario-7 as the models were trained based on the 1,3,5, days-lag forecasted inflow, and overall, the XG-Boost outperforms all the other models. � 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature. Article in Press 2023-05-29T09:39:59Z 2023-05-29T09:39:59Z 2022 Article 10.1007/s10489-022-04029-7 2-s2.0-85137012730 https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85137012730&doi=10.1007%2fs10489-022-04029-7&partnerID=40&md5=bd9166cb42dfb864b6f3eca345fdaa72 https://irepository.uniten.edu.my/handle/123456789/27131 Springer Scopus
institution Universiti Tenaga Nasional
building UNITEN Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Tenaga Nasional
content_source UNITEN Institutional Repository
url_provider http://dspace.uniten.edu.my/
description Adaptive boosting; Decision making; Forecasting; Fuzzy inference; Fuzzy neural networks; Fuzzy systems; Multilayer neural networks; Multilayers; Reservoirs (water); Water resources; Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference; Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system; Extreme gradient boosting (XG-boost); Gradient boosting; Grid search; Grid search optimizer; Hyper-parameter; Inflow forecast; Machine-learning; Multilayer perceptron neural network; Multilayers perceptrons; Neuro-fuzzy inference systems; Perceptron neural networks; Search optimizer; Support vector regression; Support vector regressions; Machine learning
author2 57225749816
author_facet 57225749816
Ibrahim K.S.M.H.
Huang Y.F.
Ahmed A.N.
Koo C.H.
El-Shafie A.
format Article
author Ibrahim K.S.M.H.
Huang Y.F.
Ahmed A.N.
Koo C.H.
El-Shafie A.
spellingShingle Ibrahim K.S.M.H.
Huang Y.F.
Ahmed A.N.
Koo C.H.
El-Shafie A.
Forecasting multi-step-ahead reservoir monthly and daily inflow using machine learning models based on different scenarios
author_sort Ibrahim K.S.M.H.
title Forecasting multi-step-ahead reservoir monthly and daily inflow using machine learning models based on different scenarios
title_short Forecasting multi-step-ahead reservoir monthly and daily inflow using machine learning models based on different scenarios
title_full Forecasting multi-step-ahead reservoir monthly and daily inflow using machine learning models based on different scenarios
title_fullStr Forecasting multi-step-ahead reservoir monthly and daily inflow using machine learning models based on different scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting multi-step-ahead reservoir monthly and daily inflow using machine learning models based on different scenarios
title_sort forecasting multi-step-ahead reservoir monthly and daily inflow using machine learning models based on different scenarios
publisher Springer
publishDate 2023
_version_ 1806426613640855552
score 13.222552

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