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A maintenance cost study of transformers based on markov model utilizing frequency of transition approach

Deterioration; Electric transformers; Forecasting; Maintenance; Markov processes; Planning; Probability distributions; Frequency of transition; Health indices; Maintenance cost; Maintenance policy; Markov model; Prediction interval; Transition probabilities; Costs

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Main Authors: Yahaya M.S., Azis N., Selva A.M., Kadir M.Z.A.A., Jasni J., Kadim E.J., Hairi M.H., Ghazali Y.Z.Y.
Other Authors: 36083783000
Format: Article
Published: MDPI AG 2023
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spelling my.uniten.dspace-237322023-05-29T14:51:20Z A maintenance cost study of transformers based on markov model utilizing frequency of transition approach Yahaya M.S. Azis N. Selva A.M. Kadir M.Z.A.A. Jasni J. Kadim E.J. Hairi M.H. Ghazali Y.Z.Y. 36083783000 56120698200 57203742582 25947297000 25632671500 57188969063 26422962100 55336569600 Deterioration; Electric transformers; Forecasting; Maintenance; Markov processes; Planning; Probability distributions; Frequency of transition; Health indices; Maintenance cost; Maintenance policy; Markov model; Prediction interval; Transition probabilities; Costs In this paper, a maintenance cost study of transformers based on the Markov Model (MM) utilizing the Health Index (HI) is presented. In total, 120 distribution transformers of oil type (33/11 kV and 30 MVA) are examined. The HI is computed based on condition assessment data. Based on the HI, the transformers are arranged according to its corresponding states, and the transition probabilities are determined based on frequency of a transition approach utilizing the transformer transition states for the year 2013/2014 and 2012/2013. The future states of transformers are determined based on the MM chain algorithm. Finally, the maintenance costs are estimated based on future-state distribution probabilities according to the proposed maintenance policy model. The study shows that the deterioration states of the transformer population for the year 2015 can be predicted by MM based on the transformer transition states for the year 2013/2014 and 2012/2013. Analysis on the relationship between the predicted and actual computed numbers of transformers reveals that all transformer states are still within the 95% prediction interval. There is a 90% probability that the transformer population will reach State 1 after 76 years and 69 years based on the transformer transition states for the year 2013/2014 and 2012/2013. Based on the probability-state distributions, it is found that the total maintenance cost increases gradually from Ringgit Malaysia (RM) 5.94 million to RM 39.09 million based on transformer transition states for the year 2013/2014 and RM 37.56 million for the year 2012/2013 within the 20 years prediction interval, respectively. 2018 by the authors. Final 2023-05-29T06:51:20Z 2023-05-29T06:51:20Z 2018 Article 10.3390/en11082006 2-s2.0-85052826144 https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85052826144&doi=10.3390%2fen11082006&partnerID=40&md5=6168d6ef2992cfe9d7425011f015bc61 https://irepository.uniten.edu.my/handle/123456789/23732 11 8 en11082006 All Open Access, Gold MDPI AG Scopus
institution Universiti Tenaga Nasional
building UNITEN Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Tenaga Nasional
content_source UNITEN Institutional Repository
url_provider http://dspace.uniten.edu.my/
description Deterioration; Electric transformers; Forecasting; Maintenance; Markov processes; Planning; Probability distributions; Frequency of transition; Health indices; Maintenance cost; Maintenance policy; Markov model; Prediction interval; Transition probabilities; Costs
author2 36083783000
author_facet 36083783000
Yahaya M.S.
Azis N.
Selva A.M.
Kadir M.Z.A.A.
Jasni J.
Kadim E.J.
Hairi M.H.
Ghazali Y.Z.Y.
format Article
author Yahaya M.S.
Azis N.
Selva A.M.
Kadir M.Z.A.A.
Jasni J.
Kadim E.J.
Hairi M.H.
Ghazali Y.Z.Y.
spellingShingle Yahaya M.S.
Azis N.
Selva A.M.
Kadir M.Z.A.A.
Jasni J.
Kadim E.J.
Hairi M.H.
Ghazali Y.Z.Y.
A maintenance cost study of transformers based on markov model utilizing frequency of transition approach
author_sort Yahaya M.S.
title A maintenance cost study of transformers based on markov model utilizing frequency of transition approach
title_short A maintenance cost study of transformers based on markov model utilizing frequency of transition approach
title_full A maintenance cost study of transformers based on markov model utilizing frequency of transition approach
title_fullStr A maintenance cost study of transformers based on markov model utilizing frequency of transition approach
title_full_unstemmed A maintenance cost study of transformers based on markov model utilizing frequency of transition approach
title_sort maintenance cost study of transformers based on markov model utilizing frequency of transition approach
publisher MDPI AG
publishDate 2023
_version_ 1806426656688046080
score 13.223943

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