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A dynamic SEIPR model for the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease in sarawak

In Sarawak, a series of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks since 1997 started to catch the public attention. Feared and worried among society in the region had arisen followed by the unusual fatalities cases. Some clinical researches and mathematical models regarding HFMD were produced. C...

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Main Authors: Sze, Jan Chan, Labadin, Jane, Podin, Yuwana
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka 2017
Subjects:
R Medicine (General)
Online Access:http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/19721/2/A%20Dynamic.pdf
http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/19721/
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85041729436&partnerID=40&md5=61cf8e83163bf167bf078c47a910a8a7
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spelling my.unimas.ir.197212022-06-24T01:25:47Z http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/19721/ A dynamic SEIPR model for the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease in sarawak Sze, Jan Chan Labadin, Jane Podin, Yuwana R Medicine (General) In Sarawak, a series of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks since 1997 started to catch the public attention. Feared and worried among society in the region had arisen followed by the unusual fatalities cases. Some clinical researches and mathematical models regarding HFMD were produced. Clinical researches revealed that there exist the incubation period and post-infection virus shedding period which are not captured together in any mathematical models so far. In this study, the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model is being improved by building a simple deterministic SEIPR (Susceptible-Incubation (Exposed)-Infected-Post infection virus shedding-Recovered) model. By adding the incubation and post-infection virus shedding as parts of the compartments into SEIPR model, the number of infected cases is predicted. The simulation result shows rapid spreading of HFMD viruses through cohort and the ability of the model to predict the outbreak behavior pattern in the first ten weeks. Comparison between the SEIPR model and SIR model verified SEIPR model. Validation of the model is done by comparing the simulation with the actual data in 2006. Basic reproduction number, R0 computed was 2.15 which suggesting the highly contagious HFMD is likely to spread fast. The threshold value analysed can allow the possible interventions based on the minimum proportion of the population which create the liability of disease spreading. We hope that this model can help the public health personnel to reduce the burden of the disease by planning an effective manner of intervention during the outbreaks. Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka 2017 Article PeerReviewed text en http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/19721/2/A%20Dynamic.pdf Sze, Jan Chan and Labadin, Jane and Podin, Yuwana (2017) A dynamic SEIPR model for the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease in sarawak. Journal of Telecommunication, Electronic and Computer Engineering, 9 (3-10). pp. 125-129. ISSN 2180-1843 https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85041729436&partnerID=40&md5=61cf8e83163bf167bf078c47a910a8a7
institution Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
building Centre for Academic Information Services (CAIS)
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
content_source UNIMAS Institutional Repository
url_provider http://ir.unimas.my/
language English
topic R Medicine (General)
spellingShingle R Medicine (General)
Sze, Jan Chan
Labadin, Jane
Podin, Yuwana
A dynamic SEIPR model for the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease in sarawak
description In Sarawak, a series of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks since 1997 started to catch the public attention. Feared and worried among society in the region had arisen followed by the unusual fatalities cases. Some clinical researches and mathematical models regarding HFMD were produced. Clinical researches revealed that there exist the incubation period and post-infection virus shedding period which are not captured together in any mathematical models so far. In this study, the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model is being improved by building a simple deterministic SEIPR (Susceptible-Incubation (Exposed)-Infected-Post infection virus shedding-Recovered) model. By adding the incubation and post-infection virus shedding as parts of the compartments into SEIPR model, the number of infected cases is predicted. The simulation result shows rapid spreading of HFMD viruses through cohort and the ability of the model to predict the outbreak behavior pattern in the first ten weeks. Comparison between the SEIPR model and SIR model verified SEIPR model. Validation of the model is done by comparing the simulation with the actual data in 2006. Basic reproduction number, R0 computed was 2.15 which suggesting the highly contagious HFMD is likely to spread fast. The threshold value analysed can allow the possible interventions based on the minimum proportion of the population which create the liability of disease spreading. We hope that this model can help the public health personnel to reduce the burden of the disease by planning an effective manner of intervention during the outbreaks.
format Article
author Sze, Jan Chan
Labadin, Jane
Podin, Yuwana
author_facet Sze, Jan Chan
Labadin, Jane
Podin, Yuwana
author_sort Sze, Jan Chan
title A dynamic SEIPR model for the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease in sarawak
title_short A dynamic SEIPR model for the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease in sarawak
title_full A dynamic SEIPR model for the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease in sarawak
title_fullStr A dynamic SEIPR model for the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease in sarawak
title_full_unstemmed A dynamic SEIPR model for the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease in sarawak
title_sort dynamic seipr model for the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease in sarawak
publisher Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka
publishDate 2017
url http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/19721/2/A%20Dynamic.pdf
http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/19721/
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85041729436&partnerID=40&md5=61cf8e83163bf167bf078c47a910a8a7
_version_ 1736838269957570560
score 13.211869

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