Assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula using three categories of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles

Background: Projections of temperature and precipitation with low uncertainties are key parameters to climate change related studies. Purpose: The projected temperature and precipitation and their uncertainties over the Arabian Peninsula for the 21st century for three CMIP5 multimodel ensembles unde...

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Main Authors: Mansour Almazroui, M. Nazrul Islam, Sajjad Saeed, Abdulrahman K. Alkhalaf, Ramzah Dambul
Format: Article
Language:English
English
Published: Springer International Publishing AG 2017
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Online Access:https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/30521/1/Assessment%20of%20Uncertainties%20in%20Projected%20Temperature%20and%20Precipitation%20over%20the%20Arabian%20Peninsula%20Using%20Three%20Categories%20of%20Cmip5%20Multimodel%20Ensembles_FULL%20TEXT.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/30521/3/Assessment%20of%20Uncertainties%20in%20Projected%20Temperature%20and%20Precipitation%20over%20the%20Arabian%20Peninsula%20Using%20Three%20Categories%20of%20Cmip5%20Multimodel%20Ensembles%20ABSTRACT.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/30521/
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321227523_Assessment_of_Uncertainties_in_Projected_Temperature_and_Precipitation_over_the_Arabian_Peninsula_Using_Three_Categories_of_Cmip5_Multimodel_Ensembles
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-017-0027-5
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spelling my.ums.eprints.305212021-09-24T07:51:39Z https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/30521/ Assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula using three categories of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles Mansour Almazroui M. Nazrul Islam Sajjad Saeed Abdulrahman K. Alkhalaf Ramzah Dambul QC980-999 Climatology and weather Background: Projections of temperature and precipitation with low uncertainties are key parameters to climate change related studies. Purpose: The projected temperature and precipitation and their uncertainties over the Arabian Peninsula for the 21st century for three CMIP5 multimodel ensembles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are examined in this paper. Methods: Analyzing the performance of 30 CMIP5 model individually, they are categorized into three groups for the present climate (1976–2005). By applying simple model averaging ensemble method, three multimodel ensemble means, namely: (i) all CMIP5 models ensemble (AME), (ii) selected CMIP5 models ensemble (SME), and (iii) best-performing CMIP5 models ensemble (BME) are developed. Results Over the Arabian Peninsula, a continuous rise in temperature is obtained in all three ensembles (i.e., AME, SME, and BME) in the 21st century. The BME shows enhanced changes in temperature at the end of 21st century as compared to AME and SME. Moreover, the BME shows a remarkable reduction in uncertainties for the projected temperature. The AME, SME, and BME show strong inter-annual variability for the projected precipitation over the peninsula. Compared to AME and SME, the BME revealed enhanced positive change in the annual mean precipitation by the end of 21st century. Conclusions: Regionally, southern/northwestern areas of the peninsula receive enhanced/reduced future precipitation as compared to the present climate. The diferences in the projected precipitation and temperature signals increase largely between the three ensembles towards the end of 21st century. Therefore, it is concluded that selecting the best-performing models may lead a better planning by the policy makers and stakeholder for the region. Springer International Publishing AG 2017 Article PeerReviewed text en https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/30521/1/Assessment%20of%20Uncertainties%20in%20Projected%20Temperature%20and%20Precipitation%20over%20the%20Arabian%20Peninsula%20Using%20Three%20Categories%20of%20Cmip5%20Multimodel%20Ensembles_FULL%20TEXT.pdf text en https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/30521/3/Assessment%20of%20Uncertainties%20in%20Projected%20Temperature%20and%20Precipitation%20over%20the%20Arabian%20Peninsula%20Using%20Three%20Categories%20of%20Cmip5%20Multimodel%20Ensembles%20ABSTRACT.pdf Mansour Almazroui and M. Nazrul Islam and Sajjad Saeed and Abdulrahman K. Alkhalaf and Ramzah Dambul (2017) Assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula using three categories of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles. Earth Systems and Environment, 1. pp. 1-20. ISSN 2509-9426 (P-ISSN) , 2509-9434 (E-ISSN) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321227523_Assessment_of_Uncertainties_in_Projected_Temperature_and_Precipitation_over_the_Arabian_Peninsula_Using_Three_Categories_of_Cmip5_Multimodel_Ensembles https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-017-0027-5
institution Universiti Malaysia Sabah
building UMS Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaysia Sabah
content_source UMS Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.ums.edu.my/
language English
English
topic QC980-999 Climatology and weather
spellingShingle QC980-999 Climatology and weather
Mansour Almazroui
M. Nazrul Islam
Sajjad Saeed
Abdulrahman K. Alkhalaf
Ramzah Dambul
Assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula using three categories of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles
description Background: Projections of temperature and precipitation with low uncertainties are key parameters to climate change related studies. Purpose: The projected temperature and precipitation and their uncertainties over the Arabian Peninsula for the 21st century for three CMIP5 multimodel ensembles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are examined in this paper. Methods: Analyzing the performance of 30 CMIP5 model individually, they are categorized into three groups for the present climate (1976–2005). By applying simple model averaging ensemble method, three multimodel ensemble means, namely: (i) all CMIP5 models ensemble (AME), (ii) selected CMIP5 models ensemble (SME), and (iii) best-performing CMIP5 models ensemble (BME) are developed. Results Over the Arabian Peninsula, a continuous rise in temperature is obtained in all three ensembles (i.e., AME, SME, and BME) in the 21st century. The BME shows enhanced changes in temperature at the end of 21st century as compared to AME and SME. Moreover, the BME shows a remarkable reduction in uncertainties for the projected temperature. The AME, SME, and BME show strong inter-annual variability for the projected precipitation over the peninsula. Compared to AME and SME, the BME revealed enhanced positive change in the annual mean precipitation by the end of 21st century. Conclusions: Regionally, southern/northwestern areas of the peninsula receive enhanced/reduced future precipitation as compared to the present climate. The diferences in the projected precipitation and temperature signals increase largely between the three ensembles towards the end of 21st century. Therefore, it is concluded that selecting the best-performing models may lead a better planning by the policy makers and stakeholder for the region.
format Article
author Mansour Almazroui
M. Nazrul Islam
Sajjad Saeed
Abdulrahman K. Alkhalaf
Ramzah Dambul
author_facet Mansour Almazroui
M. Nazrul Islam
Sajjad Saeed
Abdulrahman K. Alkhalaf
Ramzah Dambul
author_sort Mansour Almazroui
title Assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula using three categories of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles
title_short Assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula using three categories of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles
title_full Assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula using three categories of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles
title_fullStr Assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula using three categories of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula using three categories of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles
title_sort assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the arabian peninsula using three categories of cmip5 multimodel ensembles
publisher Springer International Publishing AG
publishDate 2017
url https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/30521/1/Assessment%20of%20Uncertainties%20in%20Projected%20Temperature%20and%20Precipitation%20over%20the%20Arabian%20Peninsula%20Using%20Three%20Categories%20of%20Cmip5%20Multimodel%20Ensembles_FULL%20TEXT.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/30521/3/Assessment%20of%20Uncertainties%20in%20Projected%20Temperature%20and%20Precipitation%20over%20the%20Arabian%20Peninsula%20Using%20Three%20Categories%20of%20Cmip5%20Multimodel%20Ensembles%20ABSTRACT.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/30521/
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321227523_Assessment_of_Uncertainties_in_Projected_Temperature_and_Precipitation_over_the_Arabian_Peninsula_Using_Three_Categories_of_Cmip5_Multimodel_Ensembles
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-017-0027-5
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