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Estimating the yield loss of oil palm due to Ganoderma basal stem rot disease by using Bayesian Model Averaging

It is very crucial to planters to estimate the yield loss due to Ganoderma basal stem rot (BSR) disease in oil palm. However, currently there is a limited mathematical model available that can be used for that purpose. Therefore, this empirical study was conducted to build a mathematical model which...

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Main Authors: Assis Kamu, Chong, Khim Phin, Idris Abu Seman, Darmesah Gabda, Ho, Chong Mun
Format: Article
Language:English
English
Published: Malaysian Palm Oil Board 2021
Subjects:
HD Industries. Land use. Labor
QK Botany
S Agriculture (General)
Online Access:https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/27223/1/Estimating%20the%20yield%20loss%20of%20oil%20palm%20due%20to%20Ganoderma%20basal%20stem%20rot%20disease%20by%20using%20Bayesian%20Model%20Averaging%20ABSTRACT.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/27223/2/Estimating%20the%20yield%20loss%20of%20oil%20palm%20due%20to%20Ganoderma%20basal%20stem%20rot%20disease%20by%20using%20Bayesian%20Model%20Averaging%20FULL%20TEXT.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/27223/
http://jopr.mpob.gov.my/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/JOPR-Vol-331-March-2021-dragged-5.pdf
https://doi.org/10.21894/jopr.2020.0061
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spelling my.ums.eprints.272232021-06-14T07:04:16Z https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/27223/ Estimating the yield loss of oil palm due to Ganoderma basal stem rot disease by using Bayesian Model Averaging Assis Kamu Chong, Khim Phin Idris Abu Seman Darmesah Gabda Ho, Chong Mun HD Industries. Land use. Labor QK Botany S Agriculture (General) It is very crucial to planters to estimate the yield loss due to Ganoderma basal stem rot (BSR) disease in oil palm. However, currently there is a limited mathematical model available that can be used for that purpose. Therefore, this empirical study was conducted to build a mathematical model which can be used for yield loss estimation due to the disease. Three commercial oil palm plots with different production phases (i.e. steep ascent phase, plateau phase and declining phase) were selected as the study sites. The yield and disease severity of the selected palms in the three study sites were recorded for the duration of 12 months. Model averaging approach using Bayes theorem was used to build the model. This is also known as Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The BMA model revealed that planting preparation technique was the most important predictor of oil palm yield loss, followed by disease progress (measured using area under the disease-progress curve, AUDPC), disease severity, number of infected neighbouring palms, and two interaction terms. By using the developed BMA model, it was estimated that the economic loss can be up to 68% compared to the attainable yields of all the infected palms. Malaysian Palm Oil Board 2021 Article PeerReviewed text en https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/27223/1/Estimating%20the%20yield%20loss%20of%20oil%20palm%20due%20to%20Ganoderma%20basal%20stem%20rot%20disease%20by%20using%20Bayesian%20Model%20Averaging%20ABSTRACT.pdf text en https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/27223/2/Estimating%20the%20yield%20loss%20of%20oil%20palm%20due%20to%20Ganoderma%20basal%20stem%20rot%20disease%20by%20using%20Bayesian%20Model%20Averaging%20FULL%20TEXT.pdf Assis Kamu and Chong, Khim Phin and Idris Abu Seman and Darmesah Gabda and Ho, Chong Mun (2021) Estimating the yield loss of oil palm due to Ganoderma basal stem rot disease by using Bayesian Model Averaging. Journal of Oil Palm Research, 33 (1). pp. 46-55. ISSN 1511-2780 http://jopr.mpob.gov.my/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/JOPR-Vol-331-March-2021-dragged-5.pdf https://doi.org/10.21894/jopr.2020.0061
institution Universiti Malaysia Sabah
building UMS Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaysia Sabah
content_source UMS Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.ums.edu.my/
language English
English
topic HD Industries. Land use. Labor
QK Botany
S Agriculture (General)
spellingShingle HD Industries. Land use. Labor
QK Botany
S Agriculture (General)
Assis Kamu
Chong, Khim Phin
Idris Abu Seman
Darmesah Gabda
Ho, Chong Mun
Estimating the yield loss of oil palm due to Ganoderma basal stem rot disease by using Bayesian Model Averaging
description It is very crucial to planters to estimate the yield loss due to Ganoderma basal stem rot (BSR) disease in oil palm. However, currently there is a limited mathematical model available that can be used for that purpose. Therefore, this empirical study was conducted to build a mathematical model which can be used for yield loss estimation due to the disease. Three commercial oil palm plots with different production phases (i.e. steep ascent phase, plateau phase and declining phase) were selected as the study sites. The yield and disease severity of the selected palms in the three study sites were recorded for the duration of 12 months. Model averaging approach using Bayes theorem was used to build the model. This is also known as Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The BMA model revealed that planting preparation technique was the most important predictor of oil palm yield loss, followed by disease progress (measured using area under the disease-progress curve, AUDPC), disease severity, number of infected neighbouring palms, and two interaction terms. By using the developed BMA model, it was estimated that the economic loss can be up to 68% compared to the attainable yields of all the infected palms.
format Article
author Assis Kamu
Chong, Khim Phin
Idris Abu Seman
Darmesah Gabda
Ho, Chong Mun
author_facet Assis Kamu
Chong, Khim Phin
Idris Abu Seman
Darmesah Gabda
Ho, Chong Mun
author_sort Assis Kamu
title Estimating the yield loss of oil palm due to Ganoderma basal stem rot disease by using Bayesian Model Averaging
title_short Estimating the yield loss of oil palm due to Ganoderma basal stem rot disease by using Bayesian Model Averaging
title_full Estimating the yield loss of oil palm due to Ganoderma basal stem rot disease by using Bayesian Model Averaging
title_fullStr Estimating the yield loss of oil palm due to Ganoderma basal stem rot disease by using Bayesian Model Averaging
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the yield loss of oil palm due to Ganoderma basal stem rot disease by using Bayesian Model Averaging
title_sort estimating the yield loss of oil palm due to ganoderma basal stem rot disease by using bayesian model averaging
publisher Malaysian Palm Oil Board
publishDate 2021
url https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/27223/1/Estimating%20the%20yield%20loss%20of%20oil%20palm%20due%20to%20Ganoderma%20basal%20stem%20rot%20disease%20by%20using%20Bayesian%20Model%20Averaging%20ABSTRACT.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/27223/2/Estimating%20the%20yield%20loss%20of%20oil%20palm%20due%20to%20Ganoderma%20basal%20stem%20rot%20disease%20by%20using%20Bayesian%20Model%20Averaging%20FULL%20TEXT.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/27223/
http://jopr.mpob.gov.my/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/JOPR-Vol-331-March-2021-dragged-5.pdf
https://doi.org/10.21894/jopr.2020.0061
_version_ 1760230595381690368
score 13.211869

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