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Homogeneous ensemble Neural Cognition for CIMB stock price prediction

Stock market forecasting has always been a topic of research interest due to the lucrative profit. However, stock market forecasting is a complicated task because of the not linear, volatile and random nature of the stock market. Literature reviews have shown that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is...

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Main Author: Chang, Sim Vui
Format: Thesis
Language:English
Published: 2017
Subjects:
TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Online Access:https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26958/1/Homogeneous%20Ensemble%20Neural%20Cognition%20for%20CIMB%20Stock%20Price%20Prediction.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26958/
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spelling my.ums.eprints.269582021-06-02T03:21:19Z https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26958/ Homogeneous ensemble Neural Cognition for CIMB stock price prediction Chang, Sim Vui TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering Stock market forecasting has always been a topic of research interest due to the lucrative profit. However, stock market forecasting is a complicated task because of the not linear, volatile and random nature of the stock market. Literature reviews have shown that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is an appropriate technique to be used in forecasting activities. However, there are certain limitation in single neural network. Therefore ensemble tecniques is introduced to overcome the limitation of single neural network. Ensemble techniques overcome the limitation of single learner by covering the different area of the problem search space aggregating multiple learner, consequently, reducing the error of estimation. Hence, this research investigates the performance of homogeneous ensemble neural network in closing price prediction. Ensemble Neural Network (ENN) has shown to be able to overcome the limitation of single neural network by covering the different area of the problem search space aggregating multiple single neural network, consequently, reducing the error of estimation. As the thesis title implies, the investigation will be focusing on homogeneous ensemble neural network which means multiple same architecture neural network will be used in the ensemble neural network. The two single neural network architectures as the building block for homogeneous ENN are used in this thesis which are FeedForward Neural Network (FFNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). These two architectures are among the ANN architectures that are widely adopted in ANN research. As shown in the literature review, both architectures shown to perform well in different studies which using different parameters and network configuration that have been conducted. Hence, it is also the interest of this thesis to the performance comparison of FFNN and RNN as well in this case study. The resulted single FFNN and RNN learner conducted in the experiment will then be used in experiment of homogeneous ENN. The results of these experiments are compared against each other to see how well the homogeneous ENN can perform better than single FFNN and RNN. The study case adopted in this thesis is CIMB stock listed in KLSE. CIMB is a well established financial bank company in Malaysia. The stock is selected due the volatile pattern trend that is suitable as the study case. In this study, a collection of input parameters which include technical data and economic variables are presented to the ANN to forecast the stock closing price of CIMB. The performance of the different ANN architectures are empirically evaluated based on Mean Square Error (MSE) and prediction accuracy. 2017 Thesis NonPeerReviewed text en https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26958/1/Homogeneous%20Ensemble%20Neural%20Cognition%20for%20CIMB%20Stock%20Price%20Prediction.pdf Chang, Sim Vui (2017) Homogeneous ensemble Neural Cognition for CIMB stock price prediction. Masters thesis, Universiti Malaysia Sabah.
institution Universiti Malaysia Sabah
building UMS Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaysia Sabah
content_source UMS Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.ums.edu.my/
language English
topic TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
spellingShingle TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Chang, Sim Vui
Homogeneous ensemble Neural Cognition for CIMB stock price prediction
description Stock market forecasting has always been a topic of research interest due to the lucrative profit. However, stock market forecasting is a complicated task because of the not linear, volatile and random nature of the stock market. Literature reviews have shown that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is an appropriate technique to be used in forecasting activities. However, there are certain limitation in single neural network. Therefore ensemble tecniques is introduced to overcome the limitation of single neural network. Ensemble techniques overcome the limitation of single learner by covering the different area of the problem search space aggregating multiple learner, consequently, reducing the error of estimation. Hence, this research investigates the performance of homogeneous ensemble neural network in closing price prediction. Ensemble Neural Network (ENN) has shown to be able to overcome the limitation of single neural network by covering the different area of the problem search space aggregating multiple single neural network, consequently, reducing the error of estimation. As the thesis title implies, the investigation will be focusing on homogeneous ensemble neural network which means multiple same architecture neural network will be used in the ensemble neural network. The two single neural network architectures as the building block for homogeneous ENN are used in this thesis which are FeedForward Neural Network (FFNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). These two architectures are among the ANN architectures that are widely adopted in ANN research. As shown in the literature review, both architectures shown to perform well in different studies which using different parameters and network configuration that have been conducted. Hence, it is also the interest of this thesis to the performance comparison of FFNN and RNN as well in this case study. The resulted single FFNN and RNN learner conducted in the experiment will then be used in experiment of homogeneous ENN. The results of these experiments are compared against each other to see how well the homogeneous ENN can perform better than single FFNN and RNN. The study case adopted in this thesis is CIMB stock listed in KLSE. CIMB is a well established financial bank company in Malaysia. The stock is selected due the volatile pattern trend that is suitable as the study case. In this study, a collection of input parameters which include technical data and economic variables are presented to the ANN to forecast the stock closing price of CIMB. The performance of the different ANN architectures are empirically evaluated based on Mean Square Error (MSE) and prediction accuracy.
format Thesis
author Chang, Sim Vui
author_facet Chang, Sim Vui
author_sort Chang, Sim Vui
title Homogeneous ensemble Neural Cognition for CIMB stock price prediction
title_short Homogeneous ensemble Neural Cognition for CIMB stock price prediction
title_full Homogeneous ensemble Neural Cognition for CIMB stock price prediction
title_fullStr Homogeneous ensemble Neural Cognition for CIMB stock price prediction
title_full_unstemmed Homogeneous ensemble Neural Cognition for CIMB stock price prediction
title_sort homogeneous ensemble neural cognition for cimb stock price prediction
publishDate 2017
url https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26958/1/Homogeneous%20Ensemble%20Neural%20Cognition%20for%20CIMB%20Stock%20Price%20Prediction.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26958/
_version_ 1760230564010393600
score 13.211869

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