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Risk Factors of Mortality among Male Patients with Cardiovascular Disease in Malaysia Using Bayesian Analysis

Background: Identifying risk factors associated with mortality is important in providing better prognosis to patients. Consistent with that, Bayesian approach offers a great advantage where it rests on the assumption that all model parameters are random quantities and hence can incorporate prior kno...

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Main Authors: Nurliyana Juhan, Yong Zulina Zubairi, Zarina Mohd Khalid, Ahmad Syadi Mahmood Zuhdi
Format: Article
Language:English
English
Published: 2020
Subjects:
R Medicine (General)
Online Access:https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26637/1/Risk%20Factors%20of%20Mortality%20among%20Male%20Patients%20with%20Cardiovascular%20Disease%20in%20Malaysia%20Using%20Bayesian%20Analysis.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26637/2/Risk%20Factors%20of%20Mortality%20among%20Male%20Patients%20with%20Cardiovascular%20Disease%20in%20Malaysia%20Using%20Bayesian%20Analysis1.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26637/
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spelling my.ums.eprints.266372021-01-14T23:20:56Z https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26637/ Risk Factors of Mortality among Male Patients with Cardiovascular Disease in Malaysia Using Bayesian Analysis Nurliyana Juhan Yong Zulina Zubairi Zarina Mohd Khalid Ahmad Syadi Mahmood Zuhdi R Medicine (General) Background: Identifying risk factors associated with mortality is important in providing better prognosis to patients. Consistent with that, Bayesian approach offers a great advantage where it rests on the assumption that all model parameters are random quantities and hence can incorporate prior knowledge. Therefore, we aimed to develop a reliable model to identify risk factors associated with mortality among ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) male patients using Bayesian approach. Methods: A total of 7180 STEMI male patients from the National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry for the years 2006-2013 were enrolled. In the development of univariate and multivariate logistic regression model for the STEMI patients, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied. The performance of the model was assessed through convergence diagnostics, overall model fit, model calibration and discrimination. Results: A set of six risk factors for cardiovascular death among STEMI male patients were identified from the Bayesian multivariate logistic model namely age, diabetes mellitus, family history of CVD, Killip class, chronic lung disease and renal disease respectively. Overall model fit, model calibration and discrimination were considered good for the proposed model. Conclusion: Bayesian risk prediction model for CVD male patients identified six risk factors associated with mortality. Among the highest risks were Killip class (OR=18.0), renal disease (2.46) and age group (OR=2.43) respectively. 2020 Article PeerReviewed text en https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26637/1/Risk%20Factors%20of%20Mortality%20among%20Male%20Patients%20with%20Cardiovascular%20Disease%20in%20Malaysia%20Using%20Bayesian%20Analysis.pdf text en https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26637/2/Risk%20Factors%20of%20Mortality%20among%20Male%20Patients%20with%20Cardiovascular%20Disease%20in%20Malaysia%20Using%20Bayesian%20Analysis1.pdf Nurliyana Juhan and Yong Zulina Zubairi and Zarina Mohd Khalid and Ahmad Syadi Mahmood Zuhdi (2020) Risk Factors of Mortality among Male Patients with Cardiovascular Disease in Malaysia Using Bayesian Analysis. Iran J Public Health, 49 (9). pp. 1642-1649.
institution Universiti Malaysia Sabah
building UMS Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaysia Sabah
content_source UMS Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.ums.edu.my/
language English
English
topic R Medicine (General)
spellingShingle R Medicine (General)
Nurliyana Juhan
Yong Zulina Zubairi
Zarina Mohd Khalid
Ahmad Syadi Mahmood Zuhdi
Risk Factors of Mortality among Male Patients with Cardiovascular Disease in Malaysia Using Bayesian Analysis
description Background: Identifying risk factors associated with mortality is important in providing better prognosis to patients. Consistent with that, Bayesian approach offers a great advantage where it rests on the assumption that all model parameters are random quantities and hence can incorporate prior knowledge. Therefore, we aimed to develop a reliable model to identify risk factors associated with mortality among ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) male patients using Bayesian approach. Methods: A total of 7180 STEMI male patients from the National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry for the years 2006-2013 were enrolled. In the development of univariate and multivariate logistic regression model for the STEMI patients, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied. The performance of the model was assessed through convergence diagnostics, overall model fit, model calibration and discrimination. Results: A set of six risk factors for cardiovascular death among STEMI male patients were identified from the Bayesian multivariate logistic model namely age, diabetes mellitus, family history of CVD, Killip class, chronic lung disease and renal disease respectively. Overall model fit, model calibration and discrimination were considered good for the proposed model. Conclusion: Bayesian risk prediction model for CVD male patients identified six risk factors associated with mortality. Among the highest risks were Killip class (OR=18.0), renal disease (2.46) and age group (OR=2.43) respectively.
format Article
author Nurliyana Juhan
Yong Zulina Zubairi
Zarina Mohd Khalid
Ahmad Syadi Mahmood Zuhdi
author_facet Nurliyana Juhan
Yong Zulina Zubairi
Zarina Mohd Khalid
Ahmad Syadi Mahmood Zuhdi
author_sort Nurliyana Juhan
title Risk Factors of Mortality among Male Patients with Cardiovascular Disease in Malaysia Using Bayesian Analysis
title_short Risk Factors of Mortality among Male Patients with Cardiovascular Disease in Malaysia Using Bayesian Analysis
title_full Risk Factors of Mortality among Male Patients with Cardiovascular Disease in Malaysia Using Bayesian Analysis
title_fullStr Risk Factors of Mortality among Male Patients with Cardiovascular Disease in Malaysia Using Bayesian Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Risk Factors of Mortality among Male Patients with Cardiovascular Disease in Malaysia Using Bayesian Analysis
title_sort risk factors of mortality among male patients with cardiovascular disease in malaysia using bayesian analysis
publishDate 2020
url https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26637/1/Risk%20Factors%20of%20Mortality%20among%20Male%20Patients%20with%20Cardiovascular%20Disease%20in%20Malaysia%20Using%20Bayesian%20Analysis.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26637/2/Risk%20Factors%20of%20Mortality%20among%20Male%20Patients%20with%20Cardiovascular%20Disease%20in%20Malaysia%20Using%20Bayesian%20Analysis1.pdf
https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/26637/
_version_ 1760230524595470336
score 13.211869

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