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Assessment of rainfall pattern and future change for Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia using statistically downscaled local climate models

Climate change has been discussed frequently in recent decades, and it has increased the probability of extreme flood occurrence. This study aims to provide an analysis of future rainfall patterns and flood occurrences specifically for the Kelantan River Basin which is identified as one of flood pro...

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Main Authors: Tan, Kok Weng, Chin, Jun Ye, Ng, Pei Yee, Ngien, Su Kong
Format: Article
Language:English
English
Published: Global NEST 2023
Subjects:
T Technology (General)
TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/40523/1/Assessment%20of%20rainfall%20pattern%20and%20future%20change%20for%20Kelantan.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/40523/2/Assessment%20of%20rainfall%20pattern%20and%20future%20change%20for%20Kelantan%20River%20Basin%2C%20Malaysia%20using%20statistically%20downscaled%20local%20climate%20models_ABS.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/40523/
https://doi.org/10.30955/gnj.005130
https://doi.org/10.30955/gnj.005130
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spelling my.ump.umpir.405232024-04-30T06:28:57Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/40523/ Assessment of rainfall pattern and future change for Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia using statistically downscaled local climate models Tan, Kok Weng Chin, Jun Ye Ng, Pei Yee Ngien, Su Kong T Technology (General) TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Climate change has been discussed frequently in recent decades, and it has increased the probability of extreme flood occurrence. This study aims to provide an analysis of future rainfall patterns and flood occurrences specifically for the Kelantan River Basin which is identified as one of flood prone areas in Malaysia. The study area was divided into five regions of the Kelantan River Basin,-Kota Bharu (Northern), Kuala Krai (Center), Pos Lebir (Southeastern), Pos Hua (Southwestern) and Pos Gob (Northwestern). The historical rainfall data (1986-2019) was then retrieved from the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD) based on the five regions. The statistical approach was applied to downscaled climate model data from the CanESM2 GCM forced by the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The reliability assessment using a Cronbach’s Alpha, Linear Regression and Pearson Correlation results show that local climates (2006-2019) forced by RCP4.5 have a similar trend to historical rainfall within the same period. The spatial analysis outcomes showed that the northeastern region of the Kelantan River Basin received its highest average annual rainfall (5,000 mm) in 1990 and caused severe flooding in the area. However, there is a significant change of rainfall pattern in all regions, with a steady increase in annual rainfall in the southwestern region (2021-2100). Global NEST 2023 Article PeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/40523/1/Assessment%20of%20rainfall%20pattern%20and%20future%20change%20for%20Kelantan.pdf pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/40523/2/Assessment%20of%20rainfall%20pattern%20and%20future%20change%20for%20Kelantan%20River%20Basin%2C%20Malaysia%20using%20statistically%20downscaled%20local%20climate%20models_ABS.pdf Tan, Kok Weng and Chin, Jun Ye and Ng, Pei Yee and Ngien, Su Kong (2023) Assessment of rainfall pattern and future change for Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia using statistically downscaled local climate models. Global Nest Journal, 25 (7). pp. 139-146. ISSN 1790-7632. (Published) https://doi.org/10.30955/gnj.005130 https://doi.org/10.30955/gnj.005130
institution Universiti Malaysia Pahang Al-Sultan Abdullah
building UMPSA Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaysia Pahang Al-Sultan Abdullah
content_source UMPSA Institutional Repository
url_provider http://umpir.ump.edu.my/
language English
English
topic T Technology (General)
TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle T Technology (General)
TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Tan, Kok Weng
Chin, Jun Ye
Ng, Pei Yee
Ngien, Su Kong
Assessment of rainfall pattern and future change for Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia using statistically downscaled local climate models
description Climate change has been discussed frequently in recent decades, and it has increased the probability of extreme flood occurrence. This study aims to provide an analysis of future rainfall patterns and flood occurrences specifically for the Kelantan River Basin which is identified as one of flood prone areas in Malaysia. The study area was divided into five regions of the Kelantan River Basin,-Kota Bharu (Northern), Kuala Krai (Center), Pos Lebir (Southeastern), Pos Hua (Southwestern) and Pos Gob (Northwestern). The historical rainfall data (1986-2019) was then retrieved from the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD) based on the five regions. The statistical approach was applied to downscaled climate model data from the CanESM2 GCM forced by the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The reliability assessment using a Cronbach’s Alpha, Linear Regression and Pearson Correlation results show that local climates (2006-2019) forced by RCP4.5 have a similar trend to historical rainfall within the same period. The spatial analysis outcomes showed that the northeastern region of the Kelantan River Basin received its highest average annual rainfall (5,000 mm) in 1990 and caused severe flooding in the area. However, there is a significant change of rainfall pattern in all regions, with a steady increase in annual rainfall in the southwestern region (2021-2100).
format Article
author Tan, Kok Weng
Chin, Jun Ye
Ng, Pei Yee
Ngien, Su Kong
author_facet Tan, Kok Weng
Chin, Jun Ye
Ng, Pei Yee
Ngien, Su Kong
author_sort Tan, Kok Weng
title Assessment of rainfall pattern and future change for Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia using statistically downscaled local climate models
title_short Assessment of rainfall pattern and future change for Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia using statistically downscaled local climate models
title_full Assessment of rainfall pattern and future change for Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia using statistically downscaled local climate models
title_fullStr Assessment of rainfall pattern and future change for Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia using statistically downscaled local climate models
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of rainfall pattern and future change for Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia using statistically downscaled local climate models
title_sort assessment of rainfall pattern and future change for kelantan river basin, malaysia using statistically downscaled local climate models
publisher Global NEST
publishDate 2023
url http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/40523/1/Assessment%20of%20rainfall%20pattern%20and%20future%20change%20for%20Kelantan.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/40523/2/Assessment%20of%20rainfall%20pattern%20and%20future%20change%20for%20Kelantan%20River%20Basin%2C%20Malaysia%20using%20statistically%20downscaled%20local%20climate%20models_ABS.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/40523/
https://doi.org/10.30955/gnj.005130
https://doi.org/10.30955/gnj.005130
_version_ 1822924242633621504
score 13.239859

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