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Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia

This paper presents the manual calibration effort for the System Dynamics (SD) COVID-19 model for Malaysia. This study aims to develop a COVID-19 SD model based on the COVID-19 scenario in Malaysia. The SD model consisted of nine compartments and was adapted based on a standard disease SEIR model us...

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Main Authors: Aisyah, Ibrahim, Tuty Asmawaty, Abdul Kadir, MacDonald, Roderick H., Hamdan, Daniyal
Format: Conference or Workshop Item
Language:English
English
Published: IEEE 2023
Subjects:
QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
T Technology (General)
TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Online Access:http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/1/Hand%20Calibration%20with%20Limited%20Data%20As%20The%20Initial%20Step%20Towards%20System%20Dynamics%20Model%20Validation%20For%20COVID-19%20Case%20In%20Malaysia.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/2/Hand%20Calibration%20with%20Limited%20Data%20As%20The%20Initial%20Step%20Towards%20System%20Dynamics.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/
https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSECS58457.2023.10256349
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spelling my.ump.umpir.387162023-09-29T09:48:53Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/ Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia Aisyah, Ibrahim Tuty Asmawaty, Abdul Kadir MacDonald, Roderick H. Hamdan, Daniyal QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology (General) TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering This paper presents the manual calibration effort for the System Dynamics (SD) COVID-19 model for Malaysia. This study aims to develop a COVID-19 SD model based on the COVID-19 scenario in Malaysia. The SD model consisted of nine compartments and was adapted based on a standard disease SEIR model using Vensim software. While the development of the model is still ongoing, an initial validation was carried out between ‘Actively Infected’ and the case data gathered from the Malaysia Ministry of Health's official COVID-19 websites. During this period, the parameters were manually adjusted by hand to align the model's output with the actual data. The expected outcome was not easy to achieve, but the result was acceptable. It is important to note that the lack of such strategies may compromise the model’s validity due to uncertainty. This paper also discusses the challenges posed by hand calibration, the lessons learned during this work, and the potential future implications of this work. IEEE 2023 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/1/Hand%20Calibration%20with%20Limited%20Data%20As%20The%20Initial%20Step%20Towards%20System%20Dynamics%20Model%20Validation%20For%20COVID-19%20Case%20In%20Malaysia.pdf pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/2/Hand%20Calibration%20with%20Limited%20Data%20As%20The%20Initial%20Step%20Towards%20System%20Dynamics.pdf Aisyah, Ibrahim and Tuty Asmawaty, Abdul Kadir and MacDonald, Roderick H. and Hamdan, Daniyal (2023) Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia. In: 2023 IEEE 8th International Conference On Software Engineering and Computer Systems (ICSECS), 25-27 August 2023 , Penang, Malaysia. pp. 200-204.. ISBN 979-8-3503-1094-8 https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSECS58457.2023.10256349
institution Universiti Malaysia Pahang Al-Sultan Abdullah
building UMPSA Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaysia Pahang Al-Sultan Abdullah
content_source UMPSA Institutional Repository
url_provider http://umpir.ump.edu.my/
language English
English
topic QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
T Technology (General)
TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
spellingShingle QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
T Technology (General)
TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Aisyah, Ibrahim
Tuty Asmawaty, Abdul Kadir
MacDonald, Roderick H.
Hamdan, Daniyal
Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia
description This paper presents the manual calibration effort for the System Dynamics (SD) COVID-19 model for Malaysia. This study aims to develop a COVID-19 SD model based on the COVID-19 scenario in Malaysia. The SD model consisted of nine compartments and was adapted based on a standard disease SEIR model using Vensim software. While the development of the model is still ongoing, an initial validation was carried out between ‘Actively Infected’ and the case data gathered from the Malaysia Ministry of Health's official COVID-19 websites. During this period, the parameters were manually adjusted by hand to align the model's output with the actual data. The expected outcome was not easy to achieve, but the result was acceptable. It is important to note that the lack of such strategies may compromise the model’s validity due to uncertainty. This paper also discusses the challenges posed by hand calibration, the lessons learned during this work, and the potential future implications of this work.
format Conference or Workshop Item
author Aisyah, Ibrahim
Tuty Asmawaty, Abdul Kadir
MacDonald, Roderick H.
Hamdan, Daniyal
author_facet Aisyah, Ibrahim
Tuty Asmawaty, Abdul Kadir
MacDonald, Roderick H.
Hamdan, Daniyal
author_sort Aisyah, Ibrahim
title Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia
title_short Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia
title_full Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia
title_fullStr Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia
title_sort hand calibration with limited data as the initial step towards system dynamics model validation for covid-19 case in malaysia
publisher IEEE
publishDate 2023
url http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/1/Hand%20Calibration%20with%20Limited%20Data%20As%20The%20Initial%20Step%20Towards%20System%20Dynamics%20Model%20Validation%20For%20COVID-19%20Case%20In%20Malaysia.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/2/Hand%20Calibration%20with%20Limited%20Data%20As%20The%20Initial%20Step%20Towards%20System%20Dynamics.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/
https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSECS58457.2023.10256349
_version_ 1822923731309166592
score 13.244413

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