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Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak

COVID-19 is a highly transmissible epidemic that has impacted worldwide. It became important to study the transmission pattern and forecast the changes in the pandemic curve with the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Epidemiological parameters of the Susceptible-Infected-Rem...

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Main Authors: Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber, Norhayati, Rosli, Noryanti, Muhammad
Format: Conference or Workshop Item
Language:English
Published: 2022
Subjects:
Q Science (General)
QA Mathematics
RA Public aspects of medicine
Online Access:http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/1/Epidemiological%20parameter%20estimation%20of%20sird%20model%20for%20covid-19%20outbreak.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/
https://ncon-pgr.ump.edu.my/index.php/en/?option=com_fileman&view=file&routed=1&name=E-BOOK%20NCON%202022%20.pdf&folder=E-BOOK%20NCON%202022&container=fileman-files
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spelling my.ump.umpir.366632023-01-31T09:52:03Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/ Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber Norhayati, Rosli Noryanti, Muhammad Q Science (General) QA Mathematics RA Public aspects of medicine COVID-19 is a highly transmissible epidemic that has impacted worldwide. It became important to study the transmission pattern and forecast the changes in the pandemic curve with the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Epidemiological parameters of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model are widely used in explaining the characteristics and behavior of the disease spreading. The epidemiological parameter of the model changes throughout the epidemic due to external factors such as NPIs enforcement, public reactions to the control measures, and improvements in healthcare facilities. This paper is devoted to the parameter estimation of the SIRD model using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method of the Metropolis Hasting algorithm. The data from Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia are used and the dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 outbreak in these three countries is simulated. The results show the parameter changing due to the NPI enforced influencing the trend of the pandemic curve. 2022-11-15 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/1/Epidemiological%20parameter%20estimation%20of%20sird%20model%20for%20covid-19%20outbreak.pdf Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber and Norhayati, Rosli and Noryanti, Muhammad (2022) Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak. In: The 6th National Conference for Postgraduate Research (NCON-PGR 2022), 15 November 2022 , Virtual Conference, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Malaysia. p. 55.. https://ncon-pgr.ump.edu.my/index.php/en/?option=com_fileman&view=file&routed=1&name=E-BOOK%20NCON%202022%20.pdf&folder=E-BOOK%20NCON%202022&container=fileman-files
institution Universiti Malaysia Pahang
building UMP Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaysia Pahang
content_source UMP Institutional Repository
url_provider http://umpir.ump.edu.my/
language English
topic Q Science (General)
QA Mathematics
RA Public aspects of medicine
spellingShingle Q Science (General)
QA Mathematics
RA Public aspects of medicine
Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber
Norhayati, Rosli
Noryanti, Muhammad
Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak
description COVID-19 is a highly transmissible epidemic that has impacted worldwide. It became important to study the transmission pattern and forecast the changes in the pandemic curve with the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Epidemiological parameters of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model are widely used in explaining the characteristics and behavior of the disease spreading. The epidemiological parameter of the model changes throughout the epidemic due to external factors such as NPIs enforcement, public reactions to the control measures, and improvements in healthcare facilities. This paper is devoted to the parameter estimation of the SIRD model using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method of the Metropolis Hasting algorithm. The data from Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia are used and the dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 outbreak in these three countries is simulated. The results show the parameter changing due to the NPI enforced influencing the trend of the pandemic curve.
format Conference or Workshop Item
author Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber
Norhayati, Rosli
Noryanti, Muhammad
author_facet Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber
Norhayati, Rosli
Noryanti, Muhammad
author_sort Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber
title Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak
title_short Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak
title_full Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak
title_fullStr Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak
title_full_unstemmed Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak
title_sort epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak
publishDate 2022
url http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/1/Epidemiological%20parameter%20estimation%20of%20sird%20model%20for%20covid-19%20outbreak.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/
https://ncon-pgr.ump.edu.my/index.php/en/?option=com_fileman&view=file&routed=1&name=E-BOOK%20NCON%202022%20.pdf&folder=E-BOOK%20NCON%202022&container=fileman-files
_version_ 1756684413592141824
score 13.211869

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