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Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia

Tourism demand forecasting has been acknowledged by researchers as tourism industry involves a large investment and gives a high return to the organisations and to the countries. Among various tourism demand researches that have been published, yet little attention that focus on the new tourism prod...

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Main Author: Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi
Format: Thesis
Language:English
Published: 2021
Subjects:
Q Science (General)
QA Mathematics
Online Access:http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35262/1/Bass%20diffusion%20and%20grey%20models%20to%20forecast%20new%20tourism%20product%20a%20case%20study%20of%20Tanah%20Aina%20Resort.wm.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35262/
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spelling my.ump.umpir.352622023-05-08T02:32:01Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35262/ Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi Q Science (General) QA Mathematics Tourism demand forecasting has been acknowledged by researchers as tourism industry involves a large investment and gives a high return to the organisations and to the countries. Among various tourism demand researches that have been published, yet little attention that focus on the new tourism product forecasting. This study focuses on the application of Bass diffusion model (BDM) and grey Bass forecasting model to the new tourism product demand forecasting. Bass diffusion model is an influential model among researchers in forecasting the new product and grey forecasting model is popular because of its ability to handle as low as four data. The combination of these two models, called grey Bass forecasting model is used for the first time in the application of forecasting the new tourism product demand in Malaysia. The new tourism products studied are ecotourism resorts; Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya. Monthly data from Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya are collected from 2014 until 2018 and are converted to yearly data for the estimation of potential market. There are three parameters involved in both models namely; potential market, m, coefficient of innovation, pand coefficient of imitation,q. Parameters estimation method and different value of potential market are employed. The study finds that the grey Bass forecasting model has a better performance compared to the basic BDM for Tanah Aina Fahad dataset based on the evaluation of forecast using mean absolute percentage error. Besides, for Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya, BDM shows a better performance than grey Bass forecasting model but the value ofm gives a significant effect in the forecasting performance. Future research can be improved by using other methods in the estimation of parameters and applying the best values ofp andqto achieve the best forecast. 2021-03 Thesis NonPeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35262/1/Bass%20diffusion%20and%20grey%20models%20to%20forecast%20new%20tourism%20product%20a%20case%20study%20of%20Tanah%20Aina%20Resort.wm.pdf Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi (2021) Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia. Masters thesis, Universiti Malaysia Pahang (Contributors, Thesis advisor: Abu, Noratikah).
institution Universiti Malaysia Pahang
building UMP Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaysia Pahang
content_source UMP Institutional Repository
url_provider http://umpir.ump.edu.my/
language English
topic Q Science (General)
QA Mathematics
spellingShingle Q Science (General)
QA Mathematics
Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi
Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia
description Tourism demand forecasting has been acknowledged by researchers as tourism industry involves a large investment and gives a high return to the organisations and to the countries. Among various tourism demand researches that have been published, yet little attention that focus on the new tourism product forecasting. This study focuses on the application of Bass diffusion model (BDM) and grey Bass forecasting model to the new tourism product demand forecasting. Bass diffusion model is an influential model among researchers in forecasting the new product and grey forecasting model is popular because of its ability to handle as low as four data. The combination of these two models, called grey Bass forecasting model is used for the first time in the application of forecasting the new tourism product demand in Malaysia. The new tourism products studied are ecotourism resorts; Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya. Monthly data from Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya are collected from 2014 until 2018 and are converted to yearly data for the estimation of potential market. There are three parameters involved in both models namely; potential market, m, coefficient of innovation, pand coefficient of imitation,q. Parameters estimation method and different value of potential market are employed. The study finds that the grey Bass forecasting model has a better performance compared to the basic BDM for Tanah Aina Fahad dataset based on the evaluation of forecast using mean absolute percentage error. Besides, for Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya, BDM shows a better performance than grey Bass forecasting model but the value ofm gives a significant effect in the forecasting performance. Future research can be improved by using other methods in the estimation of parameters and applying the best values ofp andqto achieve the best forecast.
format Thesis
author Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi
author_facet Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi
author_sort Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi
title Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia
title_short Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia
title_full Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia
title_fullStr Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia
title_sort bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of tanah aina resort in malaysia
publishDate 2021
url http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35262/1/Bass%20diffusion%20and%20grey%20models%20to%20forecast%20new%20tourism%20product%20a%20case%20study%20of%20Tanah%20Aina%20Resort.wm.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35262/
_version_ 1768006862565801984
score 13.211869

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