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Modelling and forecasting on paddy production in Kelantan under the implementation of system of rice intensification (SRI)

The behaviour of the paddy total production and its future production is depending on several important factors such as the water quality, the soil management and also the usage of proper field management system. The introduction of System of Rice Intensification (SRI) that was initiated in India ha...

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Main Author: Hiew, Yeap Seng
Format: Undergraduate Final Project Report
Published: 2011
Online Access:http://discol.umk.edu.my/id/eprint/5544/
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spelling my.umk.eprints.55442022-05-23T08:41:57Z http://discol.umk.edu.my/id/eprint/5544/ Modelling and forecasting on paddy production in Kelantan under the implementation of system of rice intensification (SRI) Hiew, Yeap Seng The behaviour of the paddy total production and its future production is depending on several important factors such as the water quality, the soil management and also the usage of proper field management system. The introduction of System of Rice Intensification (SRI) that was initiated in India has been brought over into Malaysia several years ago, although it is still not completely implemented, but it did show positive development, especially in land efficiency and production per hectare. The main purpose of this study is to develop a models that not only best describes the behaviour of the paddy total production but also capable to forecast the future paddy production with greater accuracy. The second purpose for this study is to determine the relationship between the implementation of SRI and the acceptance of planters in Kelantan for this cultivation method. Yearly paddy production data for the period of 1970-2009 of Kelantan were analysed by time series methods. Several individual forecasting methods such as Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing, Linear's Double Exponential Smoothing, Winter's Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing, Damped Trend and Random Walk method were used to determine the best forecasting model for the data. The composite methods were calculated and computed under normalize weight method and fit regression weight method to obtain the best composite forecast method for the future paddy production analysis in Kelantan. Autocorrelation and several others measurements were used to determined the model efficiency and validity. The best methods will derives the best fit model for this study in determine the future paddy production, while the implementation of SRI is one of the reasons in contribution of the increases in productivity. 2011 Undergraduate Final Project Report NonPeerReviewed Hiew, Yeap Seng (2011) Modelling and forecasting on paddy production in Kelantan under the implementation of system of rice intensification (SRI). Undergraduate Final Project Report thesis, Faculty of Agro - Based Industry. (Submitted)
institution Universiti Malaysia Kelantan
building Perpustakaan Universiti Malaysia Kelantan
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaysia Kelantan
content_source UMK Institutional Repository
url_provider http://umkeprints.umk.edu.my/
description The behaviour of the paddy total production and its future production is depending on several important factors such as the water quality, the soil management and also the usage of proper field management system. The introduction of System of Rice Intensification (SRI) that was initiated in India has been brought over into Malaysia several years ago, although it is still not completely implemented, but it did show positive development, especially in land efficiency and production per hectare. The main purpose of this study is to develop a models that not only best describes the behaviour of the paddy total production but also capable to forecast the future paddy production with greater accuracy. The second purpose for this study is to determine the relationship between the implementation of SRI and the acceptance of planters in Kelantan for this cultivation method. Yearly paddy production data for the period of 1970-2009 of Kelantan were analysed by time series methods. Several individual forecasting methods such as Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing, Linear's Double Exponential Smoothing, Winter's Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing, Damped Trend and Random Walk method were used to determine the best forecasting model for the data. The composite methods were calculated and computed under normalize weight method and fit regression weight method to obtain the best composite forecast method for the future paddy production analysis in Kelantan. Autocorrelation and several others measurements were used to determined the model efficiency and validity. The best methods will derives the best fit model for this study in determine the future paddy production, while the implementation of SRI is one of the reasons in contribution of the increases in productivity.
format Undergraduate Final Project Report
author Hiew, Yeap Seng
spellingShingle Hiew, Yeap Seng
Modelling and forecasting on paddy production in Kelantan under the implementation of system of rice intensification (SRI)
author_facet Hiew, Yeap Seng
author_sort Hiew, Yeap Seng
title Modelling and forecasting on paddy production in Kelantan under the implementation of system of rice intensification (SRI)
title_short Modelling and forecasting on paddy production in Kelantan under the implementation of system of rice intensification (SRI)
title_full Modelling and forecasting on paddy production in Kelantan under the implementation of system of rice intensification (SRI)
title_fullStr Modelling and forecasting on paddy production in Kelantan under the implementation of system of rice intensification (SRI)
title_full_unstemmed Modelling and forecasting on paddy production in Kelantan under the implementation of system of rice intensification (SRI)
title_sort modelling and forecasting on paddy production in kelantan under the implementation of system of rice intensification (sri)
publishDate 2011
url http://discol.umk.edu.my/id/eprint/5544/
_version_ 1763303568398352384
score 13.211869

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