Cover Image

A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia

SARS-CoV-2, known as COVID-19, has affected the entire world, resulting in an unexpected death rate as compared to the death probability before the pandemic. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, death probability has been assessed in a normal context that is different from those anticipated during the pa...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah, Siri, Zailan, Haron, Mohd Azmi, Mohd Safari, Muhammad Aslam, Kaabar, Mohammed K. A.
Format: Article
Published: Hindawi Ltd 2022
Subjects:
H Social Sciences (General)
Online Access:http://eprints.um.edu.my/42213/
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
id my.um.eprints.42213
record_format eprints
spelling my.um.eprints.422132023-10-20T03:03:59Z http://eprints.um.edu.my/42213/ A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah Siri, Zailan Haron, Mohd Azmi Mohd Safari, Muhammad Aslam Kaabar, Mohammed K. A. H Social Sciences (General) SARS-CoV-2, known as COVID-19, has affected the entire world, resulting in an unexpected death rate as compared to the death probability before the pandemic. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, death probability has been assessed in a normal context that is different from those anticipated during the pandemic, particularly for the older population cluster. However, there is no such evidence of excess mortality in Malaysia to date. Therefore, this study determines the excess mortality rate for specific age groups during the pandemic outbreak in Malaysia. Before determining the excess mortality rate, this study aims to establish the efficiency of various parametrized mortality models in reference to the data set before the pandemic. This study employs the hold-out, repeated hold-out, and leave-one-out cross-validation procedures to identify the optimal mortality law for fitting the mortality data. Based on the goodness-of-fit measures (mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, sum square error, and mean square error), the Heligman-Pollard model for men and Rogers Planck model for women are considered as the optimal models. In assessing the excess mortality, both models favour the hold-out technique. When the COVID-19 mortality data are incorporated to forecast the mortality rate for people aged 60 and above, there is an excess mortality rate. However, the men's mortality rate appears to be delayed and more prolonged than the women's mortality rate. Consequently, the government is recommended to amend the existing policy to reflect the post COVID-19 mortality forecast. Hindawi Ltd 2022-05 Article PeerReviewed Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah and Siri, Zailan and Haron, Mohd Azmi and Mohd Safari, Muhammad Aslam and Kaabar, Mohammed K. A. (2022) A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia. Journal of Mathematics, 2022. ISSN 2314-4629, DOI https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/7715078 <https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/7715078>. 10.1155/2022/7715078
institution Universiti Malaya
building UM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaya
content_source UM Research Repository
url_provider http://eprints.um.edu.my/
topic H Social Sciences (General)
spellingShingle H Social Sciences (General)
Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah
Siri, Zailan
Haron, Mohd Azmi
Mohd Safari, Muhammad Aslam
Kaabar, Mohammed K. A.
A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia
description SARS-CoV-2, known as COVID-19, has affected the entire world, resulting in an unexpected death rate as compared to the death probability before the pandemic. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, death probability has been assessed in a normal context that is different from those anticipated during the pandemic, particularly for the older population cluster. However, there is no such evidence of excess mortality in Malaysia to date. Therefore, this study determines the excess mortality rate for specific age groups during the pandemic outbreak in Malaysia. Before determining the excess mortality rate, this study aims to establish the efficiency of various parametrized mortality models in reference to the data set before the pandemic. This study employs the hold-out, repeated hold-out, and leave-one-out cross-validation procedures to identify the optimal mortality law for fitting the mortality data. Based on the goodness-of-fit measures (mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, sum square error, and mean square error), the Heligman-Pollard model for men and Rogers Planck model for women are considered as the optimal models. In assessing the excess mortality, both models favour the hold-out technique. When the COVID-19 mortality data are incorporated to forecast the mortality rate for people aged 60 and above, there is an excess mortality rate. However, the men's mortality rate appears to be delayed and more prolonged than the women's mortality rate. Consequently, the government is recommended to amend the existing policy to reflect the post COVID-19 mortality forecast.
format Article
author Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah
Siri, Zailan
Haron, Mohd Azmi
Mohd Safari, Muhammad Aslam
Kaabar, Mohammed K. A.
author_facet Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah
Siri, Zailan
Haron, Mohd Azmi
Mohd Safari, Muhammad Aslam
Kaabar, Mohammed K. A.
author_sort Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah
title A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia
title_short A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia
title_full A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia
title_fullStr A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia
title_sort comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the covid-19 excess mortality rate in malaysia
publisher Hindawi Ltd
publishDate 2022
url http://eprints.um.edu.my/42213/
_version_ 1781704611017523200
score 13.211869

Similar Items