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Rainfall prediction using multiple inclusive models and large climate indices

Rainfall prediction is vital for the management of available water resources. Accordingly, this study used large lagged climate indices to predict rainfall in Iran's Sefidrood basin. A radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) network were used to predict mo...

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Main Authors:	Mohamadi, Sedigheh, Khozani, Zohreh Sheikh, Ehteram, Mohammad, Ahmed, Ali Najah, El-Shafie, Ahmed
Format:	Article
Published:	Springer 2022
Subjects:	TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
Online Access:	http://eprints.um.edu.my/40953/
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spelling	my.um.eprints.409532023-08-28T04:04:01Z http://eprints.um.edu.my/40953/ Rainfall prediction using multiple inclusive models and large climate indices Mohamadi, Sedigheh Khozani, Zohreh Sheikh Ehteram, Mohammad Ahmed, Ali Najah El-Shafie, Ahmed TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Rainfall prediction is vital for the management of available water resources. Accordingly, this study used large lagged climate indices to predict rainfall in Iran's Sefidrood basin. A radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) network were used to predict monthly rainfall. The models were trained using the naked mole rat (NMR) algorithm, firefly algorithm (FFA), genetic algorithm (GA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Large lagged climate indices, as well as three hybrid models, i.e., inclusive multiple model (IMM)-MLP, IMM-RBFNN, and the simple average method (SAM), were then employed to predict rainfall. This paper aims to predict rainfall using large climate indices, ensemble models, and optimized artificial neural network models. Also, the paper considers the uncertainty resources in the modeling process. The inputs were selected using a new input selection method, namely a hybrid gamma test (GT). The GT was integrated with the NMR algorithm to create a new test for determining the best input scenario. Therefore, the main innovations of this study were the introduction of the new ensemble and the new hybrid GT, as well as the new MLP and RBFNN models. The introduced ensemble models of the current study are not only useful for rainfall prediction but also can be used to predict other metrological parameters. The uncertainty of the model parameters and input data were also analysed. It was found that the IMM-MLP model reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) of the IMM-RBFNN, SAM, MLP-NMR, RBFNN-NMR, MLP-FFA, RBFNN-FFA, MLP-PSO, RBFNN-PSO, MLP-GA, and RBFNN-GA, MLP, and RBFNN models by 12%, 25%, 31%, 55%, 60%, 62%, 66%, 69%, 70%, 71%, 72%, and 72%, respectively. The IMMs, such as the IMM-MLP, IMM-RBFNN, and SAM, outperformed standalone models. The uncertainty bound of the multiple inclusive models was narrower than that of the standalone MLP and RBFNN models. The MLP-NMR model decreased the RMSE of the RBFNN-NMR, RBFNN-FFA, RBFNN-PSO, and RBFNN models by 15%, 26%, 37%, 42%, and 45%, respectively. The proposed ensemble models were robust tools for combining standalone models to predict hydrological variables. Springer 2022-12 Article PeerReviewed Mohamadi, Sedigheh and Khozani, Zohreh Sheikh and Ehteram, Mohammad and Ahmed, Ali Najah and El-Shafie, Ahmed (2022) Rainfall prediction using multiple inclusive models and large climate indices. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29 (56). pp. 85312-85349. ISSN 0944-1344, DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21727-4 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21727-4>. 10.1007/s11356-022-21727-4
institution	Universiti Malaya
building	UM Library
collection	Institutional Repository
continent	Asia
country	Malaysia
content_provider	Universiti Malaya
content_source	UM Research Repository
url_provider	http://eprints.um.edu.my/
topic	TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
spellingShingle	TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Mohamadi, Sedigheh Khozani, Zohreh Sheikh Ehteram, Mohammad Ahmed, Ali Najah El-Shafie, Ahmed Rainfall prediction using multiple inclusive models and large climate indices
description	Rainfall prediction is vital for the management of available water resources. Accordingly, this study used large lagged climate indices to predict rainfall in Iran's Sefidrood basin. A radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) network were used to predict monthly rainfall. The models were trained using the naked mole rat (NMR) algorithm, firefly algorithm (FFA), genetic algorithm (GA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Large lagged climate indices, as well as three hybrid models, i.e., inclusive multiple model (IMM)-MLP, IMM-RBFNN, and the simple average method (SAM), were then employed to predict rainfall. This paper aims to predict rainfall using large climate indices, ensemble models, and optimized artificial neural network models. Also, the paper considers the uncertainty resources in the modeling process. The inputs were selected using a new input selection method, namely a hybrid gamma test (GT). The GT was integrated with the NMR algorithm to create a new test for determining the best input scenario. Therefore, the main innovations of this study were the introduction of the new ensemble and the new hybrid GT, as well as the new MLP and RBFNN models. The introduced ensemble models of the current study are not only useful for rainfall prediction but also can be used to predict other metrological parameters. The uncertainty of the model parameters and input data were also analysed. It was found that the IMM-MLP model reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) of the IMM-RBFNN, SAM, MLP-NMR, RBFNN-NMR, MLP-FFA, RBFNN-FFA, MLP-PSO, RBFNN-PSO, MLP-GA, and RBFNN-GA, MLP, and RBFNN models by 12%, 25%, 31%, 55%, 60%, 62%, 66%, 69%, 70%, 71%, 72%, and 72%, respectively. The IMMs, such as the IMM-MLP, IMM-RBFNN, and SAM, outperformed standalone models. The uncertainty bound of the multiple inclusive models was narrower than that of the standalone MLP and RBFNN models. The MLP-NMR model decreased the RMSE of the RBFNN-NMR, RBFNN-FFA, RBFNN-PSO, and RBFNN models by 15%, 26%, 37%, 42%, and 45%, respectively. The proposed ensemble models were robust tools for combining standalone models to predict hydrological variables.
format	Article
author	Mohamadi, Sedigheh Khozani, Zohreh Sheikh Ehteram, Mohammad Ahmed, Ali Najah El-Shafie, Ahmed
author_facet	Mohamadi, Sedigheh Khozani, Zohreh Sheikh Ehteram, Mohammad Ahmed, Ali Najah El-Shafie, Ahmed
author_sort	Mohamadi, Sedigheh
title	Rainfall prediction using multiple inclusive models and large climate indices
title_short	Rainfall prediction using multiple inclusive models and large climate indices
title_full	Rainfall prediction using multiple inclusive models and large climate indices
title_fullStr	Rainfall prediction using multiple inclusive models and large climate indices
title_full_unstemmed	Rainfall prediction using multiple inclusive models and large climate indices
title_sort	rainfall prediction using multiple inclusive models and large climate indices
publisher	Springer
publishDate	2022
url	http://eprints.um.edu.my/40953/
_version_	1776247422821859328
score	13.211869

Rainfall prediction using multiple inclusive models and large climate indices

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