Staff View: A new forecasting method for failure time of creep landslide based on nonlinear creep behavior and new pre-warning criterion

A new forecasting method for failure time of creep landslide based on nonlinear creep behavior and new pre-warning criterion

The forecast of failure time of unstable slope and the definition of early warning threshold are very important for preventing landslide disaster and reducing its losses. Based on the monitoring curve of unstable slope deformation varying with time, the mathematical models are used to accurately des...

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Main Authors:	Zhang, Shuo, Jiang, Tong, Pei, Xiangjun, Huang, Runqiu, Xu, Qiang, Xie, Yushan, Pan, Xuwei, Zhi, Longxiao
Format:	Article
Published:	Frontiers Media SA 2022
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation GE Environmental Sciences
Online Access:	http://eprints.um.edu.my/40884/
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spelling	my.um.eprints.408842023-09-25T07:35:37Z http://eprints.um.edu.my/40884/ A new forecasting method for failure time of creep landslide based on nonlinear creep behavior and new pre-warning criterion Zhang, Shuo Jiang, Tong Pei, Xiangjun Huang, Runqiu Xu, Qiang Xie, Yushan Pan, Xuwei Zhi, Longxiao G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation GE Environmental Sciences The forecast of failure time of unstable slope and the definition of early warning threshold are very important for preventing landslide disaster and reducing its losses. Based on the monitoring curve of unstable slope deformation varying with time, the mathematical models are used to accurately describe the nonlinear creep behavior in the initial creep stage and the unstable creep stage of unstable slope and a forecasting method for creep landslide is proposed. In addition, this study examines an improved tangential angle criterion obtained by a new forecasting method. The results show that the initial creep stage of unstable slope can not be neglected for forecasting the failure time. The initial creep velocity v ( 0 ) and the viscoelastic hysteresis coefficient xi of the slope are determined at initial creep stage, which together control the creep process of the unstable slope. Moreover, in the secondary creep stage, there is an inverse relationship between the velocity and the critical tangential angle. According to the average velocity of the secondary creep stage, the early warning criterion of the landslide tangential angle is proposed. Combined with the forecast parameters of the unstable slope, comparative analysis of the critical tangential angle warning criterion and an improved tangential angle criterion, the early warning and forecasting system of landslide with creep characteristic is established. This system is applied to the early warning and forecasting analysis of reported soil and rock landslides cases with creep characteristics. The forecasting effect and applicability of the new method are studied in order to make it a better supplement to the early warning strategy of landslide. Frontiers Media SA 2022-09 Article PeerReviewed Zhang, Shuo and Jiang, Tong and Pei, Xiangjun and Huang, Runqiu and Xu, Qiang and Xie, Yushan and Pan, Xuwei and Zhi, Longxiao (2022) A new forecasting method for failure time of creep landslide based on nonlinear creep behavior and new pre-warning criterion. Frontiers in Earth Science, 10. ISSN 2296-6463, DOI https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.1018432 <https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.1018432>. 10.3389/feart.2022.1018432
institution	Universiti Malaya
building	UM Library
collection	Institutional Repository
continent	Asia
country	Malaysia
content_provider	Universiti Malaya
content_source	UM Research Repository
url_provider	http://eprints.um.edu.my/
topic	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation GE Environmental Sciences
spellingShingle	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation GE Environmental Sciences Zhang, Shuo Jiang, Tong Pei, Xiangjun Huang, Runqiu Xu, Qiang Xie, Yushan Pan, Xuwei Zhi, Longxiao A new forecasting method for failure time of creep landslide based on nonlinear creep behavior and new pre-warning criterion
description	The forecast of failure time of unstable slope and the definition of early warning threshold are very important for preventing landslide disaster and reducing its losses. Based on the monitoring curve of unstable slope deformation varying with time, the mathematical models are used to accurately describe the nonlinear creep behavior in the initial creep stage and the unstable creep stage of unstable slope and a forecasting method for creep landslide is proposed. In addition, this study examines an improved tangential angle criterion obtained by a new forecasting method. The results show that the initial creep stage of unstable slope can not be neglected for forecasting the failure time. The initial creep velocity v ( 0 ) and the viscoelastic hysteresis coefficient xi of the slope are determined at initial creep stage, which together control the creep process of the unstable slope. Moreover, in the secondary creep stage, there is an inverse relationship between the velocity and the critical tangential angle. According to the average velocity of the secondary creep stage, the early warning criterion of the landslide tangential angle is proposed. Combined with the forecast parameters of the unstable slope, comparative analysis of the critical tangential angle warning criterion and an improved tangential angle criterion, the early warning and forecasting system of landslide with creep characteristic is established. This system is applied to the early warning and forecasting analysis of reported soil and rock landslides cases with creep characteristics. The forecasting effect and applicability of the new method are studied in order to make it a better supplement to the early warning strategy of landslide.
format	Article
author	Zhang, Shuo Jiang, Tong Pei, Xiangjun Huang, Runqiu Xu, Qiang Xie, Yushan Pan, Xuwei Zhi, Longxiao
author_facet	Zhang, Shuo Jiang, Tong Pei, Xiangjun Huang, Runqiu Xu, Qiang Xie, Yushan Pan, Xuwei Zhi, Longxiao
author_sort	Zhang, Shuo
title	A new forecasting method for failure time of creep landslide based on nonlinear creep behavior and new pre-warning criterion
title_short	A new forecasting method for failure time of creep landslide based on nonlinear creep behavior and new pre-warning criterion
title_full	A new forecasting method for failure time of creep landslide based on nonlinear creep behavior and new pre-warning criterion
title_fullStr	A new forecasting method for failure time of creep landslide based on nonlinear creep behavior and new pre-warning criterion
title_full_unstemmed	A new forecasting method for failure time of creep landslide based on nonlinear creep behavior and new pre-warning criterion
title_sort	new forecasting method for failure time of creep landslide based on nonlinear creep behavior and new pre-warning criterion
publisher	Frontiers Media SA
publishDate	2022
url	http://eprints.um.edu.my/40884/
_version_	1778161623114973184
score	13.211869

A new forecasting method for failure time of creep landslide based on nonlinear creep behavior and new pre-warning criterion

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