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Caries-free prevalence among schoolchildren in Malaysia-time-series analysis of trends and projections from 1996 to 2030

This study assessed caries-free prevalence trends over two decades from 1996 to 2019 and projected the caries-free prevalence from 2020 to 2030 among schoolchildren in Malaysia. The study consisted of secondary data analysis of caries-free prevalence from 1996 to 2019 in six-, twelve- and sixteen-ye...

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Main Authors: Najihah, Lokman, Husin, Wan Zakiyatussariroh Wan, Jalal, Tengku Mardhiah Tengku, Marhazlinda, Jamaludin
Format: Article
Published: MDPI 2023
Subjects:
RK Dentistry
Online Access:http://eprints.um.edu.my/38725/
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spelling my.um.eprints.387252023-06-28T01:14:26Z http://eprints.um.edu.my/38725/ Caries-free prevalence among schoolchildren in Malaysia-time-series analysis of trends and projections from 1996 to 2030 Najihah, Lokman Husin, Wan Zakiyatussariroh Wan Jalal, Tengku Mardhiah Tengku Marhazlinda, Jamaludin RK Dentistry This study assessed caries-free prevalence trends over two decades from 1996 to 2019 and projected the caries-free prevalence from 2020 to 2030 among schoolchildren in Malaysia. The study consisted of secondary data analysis of caries-free prevalence from 1996 to 2019 in six-, twelve- and sixteen-year-old schoolchildren obtained from Health Information Management System (HIMS) reports. Three time-series models were compared: double exponential smoothing (DES), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the error, trend and seasonal (ETS) model, and the best model with the smallest error was chosen for univariate projection of caries-free prevalence of each age group until 2030. An upward trend of caries-free prevalence was observed for all age groups over the years. Caries-free prevalence was projected to increase with a different increment in each age group for the next decade, with a slightly damped trend noted in 16-year-old schoolchildren. Of all the age groups, the caries-free prevalence trend and projection demonstrated to be highest in 12-year-olds, followed by 16-year-olds, while 6-year-old schoolchildren revealed the lowest caries-free prevalence over three decades. The 16-year-old schoolchildren demonstrated the smallest predicted increment in caries-free prevalence. Future work can explore multivariate projections. Meanwhile, more resources and interventions could prioritise all age groups. MDPI 2023-02 Article PeerReviewed Najihah, Lokman and Husin, Wan Zakiyatussariroh Wan and Jalal, Tengku Mardhiah Tengku and Marhazlinda, Jamaludin (2023) Caries-free prevalence among schoolchildren in Malaysia-time-series analysis of trends and projections from 1996 to 2030. Children-Basel, 10 (2). ISSN 2227-9067, DOI https://doi.org/10.3390/children10020264 <https://doi.org/10.3390/children10020264>. 10.3390/children10020264
institution Universiti Malaya
building UM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaya
content_source UM Research Repository
url_provider http://eprints.um.edu.my/
topic RK Dentistry
spellingShingle RK Dentistry
Najihah, Lokman
Husin, Wan Zakiyatussariroh Wan
Jalal, Tengku Mardhiah Tengku
Marhazlinda, Jamaludin
Caries-free prevalence among schoolchildren in Malaysia-time-series analysis of trends and projections from 1996 to 2030
description This study assessed caries-free prevalence trends over two decades from 1996 to 2019 and projected the caries-free prevalence from 2020 to 2030 among schoolchildren in Malaysia. The study consisted of secondary data analysis of caries-free prevalence from 1996 to 2019 in six-, twelve- and sixteen-year-old schoolchildren obtained from Health Information Management System (HIMS) reports. Three time-series models were compared: double exponential smoothing (DES), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the error, trend and seasonal (ETS) model, and the best model with the smallest error was chosen for univariate projection of caries-free prevalence of each age group until 2030. An upward trend of caries-free prevalence was observed for all age groups over the years. Caries-free prevalence was projected to increase with a different increment in each age group for the next decade, with a slightly damped trend noted in 16-year-old schoolchildren. Of all the age groups, the caries-free prevalence trend and projection demonstrated to be highest in 12-year-olds, followed by 16-year-olds, while 6-year-old schoolchildren revealed the lowest caries-free prevalence over three decades. The 16-year-old schoolchildren demonstrated the smallest predicted increment in caries-free prevalence. Future work can explore multivariate projections. Meanwhile, more resources and interventions could prioritise all age groups.
format Article
author Najihah, Lokman
Husin, Wan Zakiyatussariroh Wan
Jalal, Tengku Mardhiah Tengku
Marhazlinda, Jamaludin
author_facet Najihah, Lokman
Husin, Wan Zakiyatussariroh Wan
Jalal, Tengku Mardhiah Tengku
Marhazlinda, Jamaludin
author_sort Najihah, Lokman
title Caries-free prevalence among schoolchildren in Malaysia-time-series analysis of trends and projections from 1996 to 2030
title_short Caries-free prevalence among schoolchildren in Malaysia-time-series analysis of trends and projections from 1996 to 2030
title_full Caries-free prevalence among schoolchildren in Malaysia-time-series analysis of trends and projections from 1996 to 2030
title_fullStr Caries-free prevalence among schoolchildren in Malaysia-time-series analysis of trends and projections from 1996 to 2030
title_full_unstemmed Caries-free prevalence among schoolchildren in Malaysia-time-series analysis of trends and projections from 1996 to 2030
title_sort caries-free prevalence among schoolchildren in malaysia-time-series analysis of trends and projections from 1996 to 2030
publisher MDPI
publishDate 2023
url http://eprints.um.edu.my/38725/
_version_ 1770551495575470080
score 13.211869

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