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Application of holt-winters time series models for predicting climatic parameters (Case study: Robat Garah-Bil Station, Iran)

Predicting hydrological variables is a very useful tool in water resource management. The importance of the forecast in environmental issues causes us to use more accurate statistical methods for studying the weather and climate change. The main objective of this study is to investigate the use of a...

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Main Authors: Heydari, Mohammad, Ghadim, Hamed Benisi, Rashidi, Mahmood, Noori, Mohammad
Format: Article
Published: Hard 2020
Subjects:
TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:http://eprints.um.edu.my/37029/
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spelling my.um.eprints.370292023-06-14T01:07:17Z http://eprints.um.edu.my/37029/ Application of holt-winters time series models for predicting climatic parameters (Case study: Robat Garah-Bil Station, Iran) Heydari, Mohammad Ghadim, Hamed Benisi Rashidi, Mahmood Noori, Mohammad TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Predicting hydrological variables is a very useful tool in water resource management. The importance of the forecast in environmental issues causes us to use more accurate statistical methods for studying the weather and climate change. The main objective of this study is to investigate the use of additive and multiplicative forms of the Holt-Winters time series model to predict environmental variables such as temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours for one year in advance. As the Holt-Winters model uses a weighted average of current and past values to provide predictions, in this study higher emphasis is placed on the recent observations by using larger weights for these data compared to the older ones. As a case study, monthly environmental data (i.e., precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and sunshine hours) collected for a span of 30 years (from 1981 to 2010) from Robat Gharah-BilStation located in Golestan, Iran was used. After modeling the data through additive and multiplicative procedures, the main three smoothing parameters of the model are optimized using a nonlinear optimization method. Based on this study, using the multiplicative form of Holt-Winters time series results in an overall of 4% less mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) compared to the additive one. The result showed that this model is more efficient in predicting and modeling climate parameters, which show stable patterns of cycle and seasonality. Hard 2020 Article PeerReviewed Heydari, Mohammad and Ghadim, Hamed Benisi and Rashidi, Mahmood and Noori, Mohammad (2020) Application of holt-winters time series models for predicting climatic parameters (Case study: Robat Garah-Bil Station, Iran). Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 29 (1). pp. 617-627. ISSN 1230-1485, DOI https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/100496 <https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/100496>. 10.15244/pjoes/100496
institution Universiti Malaya
building UM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaya
content_source UM Research Repository
url_provider http://eprints.um.edu.my/
topic TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Heydari, Mohammad
Ghadim, Hamed Benisi
Rashidi, Mahmood
Noori, Mohammad
Application of holt-winters time series models for predicting climatic parameters (Case study: Robat Garah-Bil Station, Iran)
description Predicting hydrological variables is a very useful tool in water resource management. The importance of the forecast in environmental issues causes us to use more accurate statistical methods for studying the weather and climate change. The main objective of this study is to investigate the use of additive and multiplicative forms of the Holt-Winters time series model to predict environmental variables such as temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours for one year in advance. As the Holt-Winters model uses a weighted average of current and past values to provide predictions, in this study higher emphasis is placed on the recent observations by using larger weights for these data compared to the older ones. As a case study, monthly environmental data (i.e., precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and sunshine hours) collected for a span of 30 years (from 1981 to 2010) from Robat Gharah-BilStation located in Golestan, Iran was used. After modeling the data through additive and multiplicative procedures, the main three smoothing parameters of the model are optimized using a nonlinear optimization method. Based on this study, using the multiplicative form of Holt-Winters time series results in an overall of 4% less mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) compared to the additive one. The result showed that this model is more efficient in predicting and modeling climate parameters, which show stable patterns of cycle and seasonality.
format Article
author Heydari, Mohammad
Ghadim, Hamed Benisi
Rashidi, Mahmood
Noori, Mohammad
author_facet Heydari, Mohammad
Ghadim, Hamed Benisi
Rashidi, Mahmood
Noori, Mohammad
author_sort Heydari, Mohammad
title Application of holt-winters time series models for predicting climatic parameters (Case study: Robat Garah-Bil Station, Iran)
title_short Application of holt-winters time series models for predicting climatic parameters (Case study: Robat Garah-Bil Station, Iran)
title_full Application of holt-winters time series models for predicting climatic parameters (Case study: Robat Garah-Bil Station, Iran)
title_fullStr Application of holt-winters time series models for predicting climatic parameters (Case study: Robat Garah-Bil Station, Iran)
title_full_unstemmed Application of holt-winters time series models for predicting climatic parameters (Case study: Robat Garah-Bil Station, Iran)
title_sort application of holt-winters time series models for predicting climatic parameters (case study: robat garah-bil station, iran)
publisher Hard
publishDate 2020
url http://eprints.um.edu.my/37029/
_version_ 1769842719190941696
score 13.222552

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