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A novel heuristic algorithm for the modeling and risk assessment of the covid-19 pandemic phenomenon

Themodeling and risk assessment of a pandemic phenomenon such as COVID-19 is an important and complicated issue in epidemiology, and such an attempt is of great interest for public health decision-making. To this end, in the present study, based on a recent heuristic algorithm proposed by the author...

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Main Authors: Asteris, Panagiotis G., Douyika, Maria G., Karamani, Chrysoula A., Skentou, Athanasia D., Chlichlia, Katerina, Cayaleri, Liborio, Daras, Tryfon, Armaghani, Danial J., Zaoutis, Theoklis E.
Format: Article
Published: Tech Science Press 2020
Subjects:
TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:http://eprints.um.edu.my/36984/
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spelling my.um.eprints.369842024-11-08T01:48:51Z http://eprints.um.edu.my/36984/ A novel heuristic algorithm for the modeling and risk assessment of the covid-19 pandemic phenomenon Asteris, Panagiotis G. Douyika, Maria G. Karamani, Chrysoula A. Skentou, Athanasia D. Chlichlia, Katerina Cayaleri, Liborio Daras, Tryfon Armaghani, Danial J. Zaoutis, Theoklis E. TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Themodeling and risk assessment of a pandemic phenomenon such as COVID-19 is an important and complicated issue in epidemiology, and such an attempt is of great interest for public health decision-making. To this end, in the present study, based on a recent heuristic algorithm proposed by the authors, the time evolution of COVID-19 is investigated for six different countries/states, namely New York, California, USA, Iran, Sweden and UK. The number of COVID-19-related deaths is used to develop the proposed heuristic model as it is believed that the predicted number of daily deaths in each country/state includes information about the quality of the health system in each area, the age distribution of population, geographical and environmental factors as well as other conditions. Based on derived predicted epidemic curves, a new 3D-epidemic surface is proposed to assess the epidemic phenomenon at any time of its evolution. This research highlights the potential of the proposed model as a tool which can assist in the risk assessment of the COVID-19. Mapping its development through 3D-epidemic surface can assist in revealing its dynamic nature as well as differences and similarities among different districts. Tech Science Press 2020 Article PeerReviewed Asteris, Panagiotis G. and Douyika, Maria G. and Karamani, Chrysoula A. and Skentou, Athanasia D. and Chlichlia, Katerina and Cayaleri, Liborio and Daras, Tryfon and Armaghani, Danial J. and Zaoutis, Theoklis E. (2020) A novel heuristic algorithm for the modeling and risk assessment of the covid-19 pandemic phenomenon. CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, 125 (2). pp. 815-828. ISSN 1526-1492, DOI https://doi.org/10.32604/CMES.2020.013280 <https://doi.org/10.32604/CMES.2020.013280>. 10.32604/CMES.2020.013280
institution Universiti Malaya
building UM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaya
content_source UM Research Repository
url_provider http://eprints.um.edu.my/
topic TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Asteris, Panagiotis G.
Douyika, Maria G.
Karamani, Chrysoula A.
Skentou, Athanasia D.
Chlichlia, Katerina
Cayaleri, Liborio
Daras, Tryfon
Armaghani, Danial J.
Zaoutis, Theoklis E.
A novel heuristic algorithm for the modeling and risk assessment of the covid-19 pandemic phenomenon
description Themodeling and risk assessment of a pandemic phenomenon such as COVID-19 is an important and complicated issue in epidemiology, and such an attempt is of great interest for public health decision-making. To this end, in the present study, based on a recent heuristic algorithm proposed by the authors, the time evolution of COVID-19 is investigated for six different countries/states, namely New York, California, USA, Iran, Sweden and UK. The number of COVID-19-related deaths is used to develop the proposed heuristic model as it is believed that the predicted number of daily deaths in each country/state includes information about the quality of the health system in each area, the age distribution of population, geographical and environmental factors as well as other conditions. Based on derived predicted epidemic curves, a new 3D-epidemic surface is proposed to assess the epidemic phenomenon at any time of its evolution. This research highlights the potential of the proposed model as a tool which can assist in the risk assessment of the COVID-19. Mapping its development through 3D-epidemic surface can assist in revealing its dynamic nature as well as differences and similarities among different districts.
format Article
author Asteris, Panagiotis G.
Douyika, Maria G.
Karamani, Chrysoula A.
Skentou, Athanasia D.
Chlichlia, Katerina
Cayaleri, Liborio
Daras, Tryfon
Armaghani, Danial J.
Zaoutis, Theoklis E.
author_facet Asteris, Panagiotis G.
Douyika, Maria G.
Karamani, Chrysoula A.
Skentou, Athanasia D.
Chlichlia, Katerina
Cayaleri, Liborio
Daras, Tryfon
Armaghani, Danial J.
Zaoutis, Theoklis E.
author_sort Asteris, Panagiotis G.
title A novel heuristic algorithm for the modeling and risk assessment of the covid-19 pandemic phenomenon
title_short A novel heuristic algorithm for the modeling and risk assessment of the covid-19 pandemic phenomenon
title_full A novel heuristic algorithm for the modeling and risk assessment of the covid-19 pandemic phenomenon
title_fullStr A novel heuristic algorithm for the modeling and risk assessment of the covid-19 pandemic phenomenon
title_full_unstemmed A novel heuristic algorithm for the modeling and risk assessment of the covid-19 pandemic phenomenon
title_sort novel heuristic algorithm for the modeling and risk assessment of the covid-19 pandemic phenomenon
publisher Tech Science Press
publishDate 2020
url http://eprints.um.edu.my/36984/
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score 13.223943

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