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SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: Data from an international prospective cohort study

Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year....

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Main Author: Group Author, Only
Format: Article
Published: 2021
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R Medicine (General)
Online Access:http://eprints.um.edu.my/26221/
https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101
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spelling my.um.eprints.262212022-02-18T07:49:38Z http://eprints.um.edu.my/26221/ SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: Data from an international prospective cohort study Group Author, Only R Medicine (General) Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. 2021 Article PeerReviewed Group Author, Only (2021) SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: Data from an international prospective cohort study. British Journal of Surgery, 108 (9). pp. 1056-1063. ISSN 0007-1323, DOI https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101 <https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101>. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101 doi:10.1093/bjs/znab101
institution Universiti Malaya
building UM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaya
content_source UM Research Repository
url_provider http://eprints.um.edu.my/
topic R Medicine (General)
spellingShingle R Medicine (General)
Group Author, Only
SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: Data from an international prospective cohort study
description Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.
format Article
author Group Author, Only
author_facet Group Author, Only
author_sort Group Author, Only
title SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: Data from an international prospective cohort study
title_short SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: Data from an international prospective cohort study
title_full SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: Data from an international prospective cohort study
title_fullStr SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: Data from an international prospective cohort study
title_full_unstemmed SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: Data from an international prospective cohort study
title_sort sars-cov-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study
publishDate 2021
url http://eprints.um.edu.my/26221/
https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101
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score 13.211869

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