Prediction of tuberculosis disease using SIR model with implementation of Runge-Kutta method in Malaysia / Norlaila Md Nor … [et al.]

The purpose of this paper is to anticipate the rate of tuberculosis disease transmission by contrasting two scenarios: one with and one without demography. This paper involved the application of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) mathematical model, SIR model with implementation of Fourth Order Ru...

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Main Authors: Md Nor, Norlaila, Hisham, Haikal, Rostam, Muhammad lrfan, Razab, Muhammad Irham, Wan Ramli, W. Khairiyah Hulaini, Abdul Manaf, Zati Iwani
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universiti Teknologi MARA, Kelantan 2023
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Online Access:https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/89147/1/89147.pdf
https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/89147/
https://journal.uitm.edu.my/ojs/index.php/JMCS
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spelling my.uitm.ir.891472024-01-28T15:59:29Z https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/89147/ Prediction of tuberculosis disease using SIR model with implementation of Runge-Kutta method in Malaysia / Norlaila Md Nor … [et al.] jmcs Md Nor, Norlaila Hisham, Haikal Rostam, Muhammad lrfan Razab, Muhammad Irham Wan Ramli, W. Khairiyah Hulaini Abdul Manaf, Zati Iwani Analysis Differential equations. Runge-Kutta formulas The purpose of this paper is to anticipate the rate of tuberculosis disease transmission by contrasting two scenarios: one with and one without demography. This paper involved the application of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) mathematical model, SIR model with implementation of Fourth Order Runge-Kutta method in order to analyse the number of individuals in three compartments: susceptible, infected and recovered. Furthermore, this paper examined tuberculosis disease prediction by comparing two SIR models and percentage of error by comparing to actual data. The least percentage error model will be chosen to proceed with the prediction of tuberculosis incidence rate for each 100,000 people in Malaysia for 2022. Next, the value of parameters for transmission rate, B and recovery rate, y, are varied in order to see the effect on incidence rate value. As a result, it was found that SIR model with demography was more accurate and applicable to use as a prediction model for tuberculosis disease. It was also shown that the number of people reponed at the peak of the graph decreases with the decrease in transmission rate. Meanwhile, at the end of the year, the incidence rate per 100,000 individuals increased with a reduced transmission rate and a higher incidence rate per 100,000 individuals regardless of recovery rate. Thus, it can be concluded that these variables give significant impact in determining the incidence rate of tuberculosis. Universiti Teknologi MARA, Kelantan 2023-12 Article PeerReviewed text en https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/89147/1/89147.pdf Prediction of tuberculosis disease using SIR model with implementation of Runge-Kutta method in Malaysia / Norlaila Md Nor … [et al.]. (2023) Journal of Mathematics and Computing Science <https://ir.uitm.edu.my/view/publication/Journal_of_Mathematics_and_Computing_Science/>, 9 (2): 14. pp. 109-122. ISSN 0128-0767 https://journal.uitm.edu.my/ojs/index.php/JMCS
institution Universiti Teknologi Mara
building Tun Abdul Razak Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Mara
content_source UiTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://ir.uitm.edu.my/
language English
topic Analysis
Differential equations. Runge-Kutta formulas
spellingShingle Analysis
Differential equations. Runge-Kutta formulas
Md Nor, Norlaila
Hisham, Haikal
Rostam, Muhammad lrfan
Razab, Muhammad Irham
Wan Ramli, W. Khairiyah Hulaini
Abdul Manaf, Zati Iwani
Prediction of tuberculosis disease using SIR model with implementation of Runge-Kutta method in Malaysia / Norlaila Md Nor … [et al.]
description The purpose of this paper is to anticipate the rate of tuberculosis disease transmission by contrasting two scenarios: one with and one without demography. This paper involved the application of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) mathematical model, SIR model with implementation of Fourth Order Runge-Kutta method in order to analyse the number of individuals in three compartments: susceptible, infected and recovered. Furthermore, this paper examined tuberculosis disease prediction by comparing two SIR models and percentage of error by comparing to actual data. The least percentage error model will be chosen to proceed with the prediction of tuberculosis incidence rate for each 100,000 people in Malaysia for 2022. Next, the value of parameters for transmission rate, B and recovery rate, y, are varied in order to see the effect on incidence rate value. As a result, it was found that SIR model with demography was more accurate and applicable to use as a prediction model for tuberculosis disease. It was also shown that the number of people reponed at the peak of the graph decreases with the decrease in transmission rate. Meanwhile, at the end of the year, the incidence rate per 100,000 individuals increased with a reduced transmission rate and a higher incidence rate per 100,000 individuals regardless of recovery rate. Thus, it can be concluded that these variables give significant impact in determining the incidence rate of tuberculosis.
format Article
author Md Nor, Norlaila
Hisham, Haikal
Rostam, Muhammad lrfan
Razab, Muhammad Irham
Wan Ramli, W. Khairiyah Hulaini
Abdul Manaf, Zati Iwani
author_facet Md Nor, Norlaila
Hisham, Haikal
Rostam, Muhammad lrfan
Razab, Muhammad Irham
Wan Ramli, W. Khairiyah Hulaini
Abdul Manaf, Zati Iwani
author_sort Md Nor, Norlaila
title Prediction of tuberculosis disease using SIR model with implementation of Runge-Kutta method in Malaysia / Norlaila Md Nor … [et al.]
title_short Prediction of tuberculosis disease using SIR model with implementation of Runge-Kutta method in Malaysia / Norlaila Md Nor … [et al.]
title_full Prediction of tuberculosis disease using SIR model with implementation of Runge-Kutta method in Malaysia / Norlaila Md Nor … [et al.]
title_fullStr Prediction of tuberculosis disease using SIR model with implementation of Runge-Kutta method in Malaysia / Norlaila Md Nor … [et al.]
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of tuberculosis disease using SIR model with implementation of Runge-Kutta method in Malaysia / Norlaila Md Nor … [et al.]
title_sort prediction of tuberculosis disease using sir model with implementation of runge-kutta method in malaysia / norlaila md nor … [et al.]
publisher Universiti Teknologi MARA, Kelantan
publishDate 2023
url https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/89147/1/89147.pdf
https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/89147/
https://journal.uitm.edu.my/ojs/index.php/JMCS
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score 13.211869