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A dynamic SIR model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Malaysia / Nur Aziean Mohd Idris, Siti Khadijah Mohtar, Zaileha Md Ali, and Khadijah Abdul Hamid

The emergence of the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case in Malaysia has increased the number of infected cases. Hence, this study proposes a Susceptible-Infected-Recovery (SIR) epidemiological model of the COVID-19 epidemic to portray the outbreak's situation. The SIR model is numer...

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Main Authors: Mohd Idris, Nur Aziean, Mohtar, Siti Khadijah, Md Ali, Zaileha, Abdul Hamid, Khadijah
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universiti Teknologi MARA 2022
Online Access:https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/69244/1/69244.pdf
https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/69244/
https://mjoc.uitm.edu.my
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spelling my.uitm.ir.692442022-10-27T03:42:03Z https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/69244/ A dynamic SIR model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Malaysia / Nur Aziean Mohd Idris, Siti Khadijah Mohtar, Zaileha Md Ali, and Khadijah Abdul Hamid Mohd Idris, Nur Aziean Mohtar, Siti Khadijah Md Ali, Zaileha Abdul Hamid, Khadijah The emergence of the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case in Malaysia has increased the number of infected cases. Hence, this study proposes a Susceptible-Infected-Recovery (SIR) epidemiological model of the COVID-19 epidemic to portray the outbreak's situation. The SIR model is numerically solved using the Fourth-order Runge-Kutta (RK4) method in Matlab®. The Euler method verifies that the graphical results of the SIR model are reliable and valid. In addition, this study analyses the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibriums of the SIR model by the Jacobian matrix. The results show the outbreak for phase 1 occurs in the first 100 days of the phase due to the increased infected cases in early March 2020. As for phase 2, the increases of infected cases in wave 2 make the outbreak occur throughout phase 2, with R0 being higher than phase 1. The infected population for phase 3 shows asymptotic behavior even though the infection rate increases, but the recovery rate is much higher than in phase 2. The local stability of the endemic equilibrium of all phases exists since the value of R0 is more than one. The system is locally asymptotic stable for all three phases since the obtained eigenvalues are real and negative. Universiti Teknologi MARA 2022-10 Article PeerReviewed text en https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/69244/1/69244.pdf A dynamic SIR model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Malaysia / Nur Aziean Mohd Idris, Siti Khadijah Mohtar, Zaileha Md Ali, and Khadijah Abdul Hamid. (2022) Malaysian Journal of Computing (MJoC), 7 (2): 4. pp. 1108-1119. ISSN 2600-8238 https://mjoc.uitm.edu.my
institution Universiti Teknologi Mara
building Tun Abdul Razak Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Mara
content_source UiTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://ir.uitm.edu.my/
language English
description The emergence of the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case in Malaysia has increased the number of infected cases. Hence, this study proposes a Susceptible-Infected-Recovery (SIR) epidemiological model of the COVID-19 epidemic to portray the outbreak's situation. The SIR model is numerically solved using the Fourth-order Runge-Kutta (RK4) method in Matlab®. The Euler method verifies that the graphical results of the SIR model are reliable and valid. In addition, this study analyses the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibriums of the SIR model by the Jacobian matrix. The results show the outbreak for phase 1 occurs in the first 100 days of the phase due to the increased infected cases in early March 2020. As for phase 2, the increases of infected cases in wave 2 make the outbreak occur throughout phase 2, with R0 being higher than phase 1. The infected population for phase 3 shows asymptotic behavior even though the infection rate increases, but the recovery rate is much higher than in phase 2. The local stability of the endemic equilibrium of all phases exists since the value of R0 is more than one. The system is locally asymptotic stable for all three phases since the obtained eigenvalues are real and negative.
format Article
author Mohd Idris, Nur Aziean
Mohtar, Siti Khadijah
Md Ali, Zaileha
Abdul Hamid, Khadijah
spellingShingle Mohd Idris, Nur Aziean
Mohtar, Siti Khadijah
Md Ali, Zaileha
Abdul Hamid, Khadijah
A dynamic SIR model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Malaysia / Nur Aziean Mohd Idris, Siti Khadijah Mohtar, Zaileha Md Ali, and Khadijah Abdul Hamid
author_facet Mohd Idris, Nur Aziean
Mohtar, Siti Khadijah
Md Ali, Zaileha
Abdul Hamid, Khadijah
author_sort Mohd Idris, Nur Aziean
title A dynamic SIR model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Malaysia / Nur Aziean Mohd Idris, Siti Khadijah Mohtar, Zaileha Md Ali, and Khadijah Abdul Hamid
title_short A dynamic SIR model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Malaysia / Nur Aziean Mohd Idris, Siti Khadijah Mohtar, Zaileha Md Ali, and Khadijah Abdul Hamid
title_full A dynamic SIR model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Malaysia / Nur Aziean Mohd Idris, Siti Khadijah Mohtar, Zaileha Md Ali, and Khadijah Abdul Hamid
title_fullStr A dynamic SIR model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Malaysia / Nur Aziean Mohd Idris, Siti Khadijah Mohtar, Zaileha Md Ali, and Khadijah Abdul Hamid
title_full_unstemmed A dynamic SIR model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Malaysia / Nur Aziean Mohd Idris, Siti Khadijah Mohtar, Zaileha Md Ali, and Khadijah Abdul Hamid
title_sort dynamic sir model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in malaysia / nur aziean mohd idris, siti khadijah mohtar, zaileha md ali, and khadijah abdul hamid
publisher Universiti Teknologi MARA
publishDate 2022
url https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/69244/1/69244.pdf
https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/69244/
https://mjoc.uitm.edu.my
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score 13.211869

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