Cover Image

Data driven mathematical models for forecast of Covid-19 disease in Nigeria / Oludare Adedire ... [et al.]

In this research, two mathematical models are proposed for investigation of laboratory confirmed daily COVID-19 disease incidence and total active daily infectious COVID-19 cases using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. Due to the observed patterns in the raw data, Autoregressi...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Adedire, Oludare, Sadiku, Yahaya, O Adedire, Olufemi., Collina, Kambai, O Oladejo, Afolabi., Sikiru, G.K
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: UiTM Cawangan Perlis 2022
Subjects:
Mathematical statistics. Probabilities
Infectious and parasitic diseases
Online Access:https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/60635/1/60635.pdf
https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/60635/
https://crinn.conferencehunter.com/
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
id my.uitm.ir.60635
record_format eprints
spelling my.uitm.ir.606352022-06-21T07:41:19Z https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/60635/ Data driven mathematical models for forecast of Covid-19 disease in Nigeria / Oludare Adedire ... [et al.] Adedire, Oludare Sadiku, Yahaya O Adedire, Olufemi. Collina, Kambai O Oladejo, Afolabi. Sikiru, G.K Mathematical statistics. Probabilities Infectious and parasitic diseases In this research, two mathematical models are proposed for investigation of laboratory confirmed daily COVID-19 disease incidence and total active daily infectious COVID-19 cases using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. Due to the observed patterns in the raw data, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) method is used on the data which covered a period of 521 days (27 February, 2020- 1st August 2021). While diagnostic check of ARIMA(11,1,0) indicate Ljung-Box Q(18) statistics value of 12.544 with p-value of 0.084, diagnostic check of ARIMA(1, 1, 1) indicate Ljung Box Q(18) statistics value of 22.420 with p-value of 0.130. Furthermore, stationary R- squared values are 0.803 and 0.858 at 95% confidence bound for ARIMA (11, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) respectively which are indicative of good models. Results from ARIMA (11, 1, 0) forecast show a slightly moderate upward trend in confirmed daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria and results from ARIMA(1, 1, 1) indicate significant upward trend in total active daily infectious COVID-19 cases in Nigerian population. Therefore, the developed models can be adopted by presidential taskforce and other agencies in health sector regarding future vaccination towards prevention of the spread of COVID-19 disease in Nigeria provided that the present general prevailing conditions of disease spread remain fairly the same. UiTM Cawangan Perlis 2022 Article PeerReviewed text en https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/60635/1/60635.pdf Data driven mathematical models for forecast of Covid-19 disease in Nigeria / Oludare Adedire ... [et al.]. (2022) Journal of Computing Research and Innovation (JCRINN), 7 (1): 1. pp. 1-14. ISSN 2600-8793 https://crinn.conferencehunter.com/
institution Universiti Teknologi Mara
building Tun Abdul Razak Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Mara
content_source UiTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://ir.uitm.edu.my/
language English
topic Mathematical statistics. Probabilities
Infectious and parasitic diseases
spellingShingle Mathematical statistics. Probabilities
Infectious and parasitic diseases
Adedire, Oludare
Sadiku, Yahaya
O Adedire, Olufemi.
Collina, Kambai
O Oladejo, Afolabi.
Sikiru, G.K
Data driven mathematical models for forecast of Covid-19 disease in Nigeria / Oludare Adedire ... [et al.]
description In this research, two mathematical models are proposed for investigation of laboratory confirmed daily COVID-19 disease incidence and total active daily infectious COVID-19 cases using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. Due to the observed patterns in the raw data, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) method is used on the data which covered a period of 521 days (27 February, 2020- 1st August 2021). While diagnostic check of ARIMA(11,1,0) indicate Ljung-Box Q(18) statistics value of 12.544 with p-value of 0.084, diagnostic check of ARIMA(1, 1, 1) indicate Ljung Box Q(18) statistics value of 22.420 with p-value of 0.130. Furthermore, stationary R- squared values are 0.803 and 0.858 at 95% confidence bound for ARIMA (11, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) respectively which are indicative of good models. Results from ARIMA (11, 1, 0) forecast show a slightly moderate upward trend in confirmed daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria and results from ARIMA(1, 1, 1) indicate significant upward trend in total active daily infectious COVID-19 cases in Nigerian population. Therefore, the developed models can be adopted by presidential taskforce and other agencies in health sector regarding future vaccination towards prevention of the spread of COVID-19 disease in Nigeria provided that the present general prevailing conditions of disease spread remain fairly the same.
format Article
author Adedire, Oludare
Sadiku, Yahaya
O Adedire, Olufemi.
Collina, Kambai
O Oladejo, Afolabi.
Sikiru, G.K
author_facet Adedire, Oludare
Sadiku, Yahaya
O Adedire, Olufemi.
Collina, Kambai
O Oladejo, Afolabi.
Sikiru, G.K
author_sort Adedire, Oludare
title Data driven mathematical models for forecast of Covid-19 disease in Nigeria / Oludare Adedire ... [et al.]
title_short Data driven mathematical models for forecast of Covid-19 disease in Nigeria / Oludare Adedire ... [et al.]
title_full Data driven mathematical models for forecast of Covid-19 disease in Nigeria / Oludare Adedire ... [et al.]
title_fullStr Data driven mathematical models for forecast of Covid-19 disease in Nigeria / Oludare Adedire ... [et al.]
title_full_unstemmed Data driven mathematical models for forecast of Covid-19 disease in Nigeria / Oludare Adedire ... [et al.]
title_sort data driven mathematical models for forecast of covid-19 disease in nigeria / oludare adedire ... [et al.]
publisher UiTM Cawangan Perlis
publishDate 2022
url https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/60635/1/60635.pdf
https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/60635/
https://crinn.conferencehunter.com/
_version_ 1736837309567860736
score 13.211869

Similar Items