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Prediction of dengue outbreak : a comparison between ARIMA and holt-winter’s methods / Nur Aqilah Ali

Dengue cases is a globally known infection in which the virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and can lead to death. Selangor has been reported to have the highest incidence of dengue infection among the communities in Malaysia. There is currently a new pandemic, COVID-19, which occurred all over the w...

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Main Author: Ali, Nur Aqilah
Format: Student Project
Language:English
Published: 2021
Subjects:
Mathematical statistics. Probabilities
Prediction analysis
Dengue
Online Access:https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/49565/1/49565.pdf
https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/49565/
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spelling my.uitm.ir.495652021-08-30T09:07:49Z https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/49565/ Prediction of dengue outbreak : a comparison between ARIMA and holt-winter’s methods / Nur Aqilah Ali Ali, Nur Aqilah Mathematical statistics. Probabilities Prediction analysis Dengue Dengue cases is a globally known infection in which the virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and can lead to death. Selangor has been reported to have the highest incidence of dengue infection among the communities in Malaysia. There is currently a new pandemic, COVID-19, which occurred all over the world, including Selangor, and which led to this study on the pattern of dengue cases during COVID-19. The aim of this study was to develop the best model to predict the future value of dengue cases in Selangor. In order to meet the objectives, the ARIMA method and the Holt’s Winter method are used to evaluate dengue case data collected in Selangor. The best model is chosen by evaluating the Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) measurement errors. Then, the predicted number of dengue cases is calculated using the best model generated. The best model can be used to predict dengue cases in Selangor is Additive Holt-Winter method since it showed the lowest values of all measurement errors. The trend of dengue in Selangor during COVID-19 showed that fewer cases occurred compared to the phase in which COVID-19 was free. In conclusion, with certain precautions that may be applied by the government to prevent people from going out freely in public places, the number of dengue can be reduced due to factors that can be avoided. 2021-08-13 Student Project NonPeerReviewed text en https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/49565/1/49565.pdf ID49565 Ali, Nur Aqilah (2021) Prediction of dengue outbreak : a comparison between ARIMA and holt-winter’s methods / Nur Aqilah Ali. [Student Project] (Unpublished)
institution Universiti Teknologi Mara
building Tun Abdul Razak Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Mara
content_source UiTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://ir.uitm.edu.my/
language English
topic Mathematical statistics. Probabilities
Prediction analysis
Dengue
spellingShingle Mathematical statistics. Probabilities
Prediction analysis
Dengue
Ali, Nur Aqilah
Prediction of dengue outbreak : a comparison between ARIMA and holt-winter’s methods / Nur Aqilah Ali
description Dengue cases is a globally known infection in which the virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and can lead to death. Selangor has been reported to have the highest incidence of dengue infection among the communities in Malaysia. There is currently a new pandemic, COVID-19, which occurred all over the world, including Selangor, and which led to this study on the pattern of dengue cases during COVID-19. The aim of this study was to develop the best model to predict the future value of dengue cases in Selangor. In order to meet the objectives, the ARIMA method and the Holt’s Winter method are used to evaluate dengue case data collected in Selangor. The best model is chosen by evaluating the Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) measurement errors. Then, the predicted number of dengue cases is calculated using the best model generated. The best model can be used to predict dengue cases in Selangor is Additive Holt-Winter method since it showed the lowest values of all measurement errors. The trend of dengue in Selangor during COVID-19 showed that fewer cases occurred compared to the phase in which COVID-19 was free. In conclusion, with certain precautions that may be applied by the government to prevent people from going out freely in public places, the number of dengue can be reduced due to factors that can be avoided.
format Student Project
author Ali, Nur Aqilah
author_facet Ali, Nur Aqilah
author_sort Ali, Nur Aqilah
title Prediction of dengue outbreak : a comparison between ARIMA and holt-winter’s methods / Nur Aqilah Ali
title_short Prediction of dengue outbreak : a comparison between ARIMA and holt-winter’s methods / Nur Aqilah Ali
title_full Prediction of dengue outbreak : a comparison between ARIMA and holt-winter’s methods / Nur Aqilah Ali
title_fullStr Prediction of dengue outbreak : a comparison between ARIMA and holt-winter’s methods / Nur Aqilah Ali
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of dengue outbreak : a comparison between ARIMA and holt-winter’s methods / Nur Aqilah Ali
title_sort prediction of dengue outbreak : a comparison between arima and holt-winter’s methods / nur aqilah ali
publishDate 2021
url https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/49565/1/49565.pdf
https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/49565/
_version_ 1709671430420955136
score 13.211869

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